Rutgers Scarlet Knights Basketball Preview

Rutgers enters the 2009-2010 basketball season with something of a foul taste in its mouth.  With a roster that included Anthony Farmer, JR Inman, Corey Chandler, Mike Rosario, and Gregory Echenique they expected to win a modest but respectable number of Big East games.  Instead they won two, and Farmer and Inman are gone. Chandler has been dismissed from the team, as well. There is one intriguing recruit and a JUCO transfer added to the mix, along with a couple of lesser-known freshmen, so this is probably close to the same team in terms of talent. Can Fred Hill get a little more out of them this year?  One thing in their favor is the brutal schedule they played last year.  That slate featured 11 games against NCAA tournament teams (including all four #1 seeds), five more against NIT teams, and a stretch during which six of seven opponents were ranked fifteen or higher.  So they are certainly prepared to take the court against difficult teams.

Team Info

Head Coach:

Fred Hill, 4th season

'08-'09 Results:

11-21 Overall, 2-17 Big East

no postseason

Departing Players:

G Anthony Farmer

G-F Jaron Griffin

F JR Inman
G Corey Chandler

Returning Players:
C Hamady Ndiaye (Sr.)

G Mike Coburn (Jr.)
F Gregory Echenique (So.)
F Patrick Jackson (So.)
F Tomasz Kokosinski (So.)
G Mike Kuhn (So.)
G Mike Rosario (So.)

Newcomers:
G James Beatty (JUCO)
F Jonathan Mitchell (transfer, Florida)
G Mohamed Hasani (Kosovo)
PF Austin Johnson
F Dane Miller
C Brian Okam


(Full Roster)



Nonconference Slate:  Marist, Drexel, Vermont, Massachusetts, Princeton, Colgate, Monmouth, Rider, NJIT, St. Peter's, @ North Carolina

Big East home-and-home:  Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall

Big East Home Opponents:  Cincinnati, Syracuse, Villanova, Notre Dame, St. John's, Connecticut


Big East Road Opponents:  West Virginia, Providence, South Florida, Marquette, Louisville, Pittsburgh


Legends Classic:  The Drexel and Vermont games are regional openers for this tournament.  Rutgers will then face UMass in a preset semifinal in Atlantic city, and finally either Michigan State or Florida in the consolation or championship game.


Coaches' Pick: 15th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

Rosario and Echenique carried a lot of hope with them in coming to Rutgers last year, but largely failed to deliver on it.  Rosario is clearly thier best talent, and he did put up very good freshman numbers, but it remains to be seen if Echenique can carry the load up front.  He'll get help if Jonathan Mitchell turns in better performances than his average game for Florida, and if true freshman Dane Miller is able to contribute right away. JUCO transfer James Beatty should be able to make up for most of what was lost in Anthony Farmer, but there's always a question mark when these athletes switch to Division I competition.  Another story worth keeping an eye on is the performance of Mohamed Hansi out of Europe; he could be an unexpected boost.  So there are a lot of intriguing players on this roster, but as each one save Rosario comes with a question mark I suspect this will not lead to any great heights.  If they are to surprise people they will need better contributions (and some stronger leadership) to returning players Hamady Ndiaye, and Mike Coburn.

Best Case:

Understand that what I'm about to say will take something akin to the aligning of planets...but since we have seen such things in the sports world before I will be true to the term "Best Case."  If Rosario adds even a little more to his game, pushing his average to 18-20 points; if Echenique and Ndiaye prove that their lackluster numbers were a product of the elite frontcourt competition last year; and if Beatty, Mitchell (who does have a national title, by the way), Miller, and Hasani all produce - the Knights could ride into conference play with a surprising 9-2 record.  This would include losses to North Carolina and to Michigan State in the Legends Classic championship game.  They could sweep a two game set at DePaul, split with both Seton Hall and Georgetown (two teams who I think will fail to meet expectations) and rattle off 4-5 more Big East wins.  That kind of performance would land them at around 17-12, 8-10 with a chance for another win or two in the Garden.  That kind of season could carry with it an invite to the NIT.

Worst Case:

The flip side of course (which I unfortunately see as the more likely scenario) could involve the wheels falling off very early.  Since Rosario is the only "sure thing" on the roster, a regression by him could easily cost them some games they should win.  This will especially be true if the returning bigs fail to step up in the way that's needed.  Both transfers are unproven in Division I, and could easily disappoint.  This combination would make it very hard for the incoming freshmen to adjust, whatever their talent level.  A series of disasters like that could well get them a record closer to 7-22, 3-15.

My Best Guess:

11-18 Overall, 4-16 Big East (15th place) with an opening round loss in the Big East tournament.  I know it isn't optimistic, but I just wouldn't count on more than half of the questions to be answered favorably.