Mega-Conference Mayhem? Part I

Conference Realignment is the talk of the college sports world, here in the lull between the two biggest sports seasons. The scuttlebutt seems to be that the Big Ten would like to get to 16 teams ideally, and that they have offered(?) Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, and Rutgers an informal invite. If the Big Ten does get to sixteen...SIXTEEN football teams, a lot of other things would certainly shake down. Below is my attempt at an ideal situation...a mix of what I think might happen and what I'd like to see happen. This is not meant to be predictive, so please don't read it that way.  I'm going to start with football, and soon I will follow it up with a perhaps futile exercise in creating the ideal possible landscape for basketball, as well.

Football (The Driver, The Frame, and The Engine)

Before proceeding, I want to reiterate that this is NOT what I think will happen. There are financial considerations about which I don't possess nearly enough knowledge to predict these things accurately. Some of what I say might be entirely out of the question. I'm just having fun with it, because it's a fascinating situation which I feel merits discussion. On to the content!


Step One - The Big Ten satisfies its appetite:

The instigator of the mayhem, the Big Ten becomes the Bigger Ten by getting its teams to bite. Chances are slim that Notre Dame will join in, but if the kind of realignment that I'm about to describe does start happening, and the Irish AD sees which way the wind is blowing, it might be enough to convince them that joining up is the only way to go. If we accept that premise, the Big Ten adds Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Pittsburgh to get to that sixteen team plateau. Here's how I'd like to see it line up:

Division A 
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio State
Purdue

Division B 
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Wisconsin

Some of these groupings are obvious - others nearly impossible to satisfy all teams. For example, Michigan State and Michigan must be together, as must Ohio State and Michigan. Another such trio is Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue...and yet a third is Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Notre Dame would like to be paired with almost everyone, so anywhere they're placed removes a rivalry. It would be nice to keep Missouri with Nebraska and Pitt with Rutgers, but all of the newcomers in one division doesn't work. So, the above is the closest approximation to an equitable situation, in my opinion.


Step Two - The Fate of the Big 12 and Big East:

Bottom line, the Big Twelve just might have the staying power in Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, OK State, and Kansas to survive the raid as a football conference. The Big East simply doesn't. It will fold like my simile skills right now. The Big Twelve will survive - and expand - IF the SEC doesn't step in to poach Texas and Oklahoma. I'm hoping that doesn't happen, because I'd hate to see the Texas and Oklahoma schools broken up. I don't know that the Big Twelve has enough viable invites to get to 16, but I think 14 is attainable. The teams I see them adding easily are TCU, Memphis, and Louisville. The last is wishy-washy...I would say Boise State but I see them going elsewhere. That leaves me considering Nevada or perhaps a Mountain West Team. Cincinnati could be the team. Suddenly in my thought process, though, a new team has jumped up and grabbed me. It's one I hadn't considered before, because I thought no one would leave their league (drumroll)  Vanderbilt.  I give you the Big 14:

Division A
Baylor
Colorado
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M

Division B
Kansas
Kansas State
Memphis
Louisville
Texas Tech
TCU
Vanderbilt


The travel arrangements are a little worrisome, but I think that setup would at least be passable. Grouping Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Louisville together minimizes the problem somewhat. Awkward trips to Texas, Oklahoma, or Colorado for those three are unavoidable though. The Big East's football schools are now down to West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut, and South Florida, for those who are counting.


Step Three - The SEC keeps pace:

The SEC and its football pride would not stand for being outdone by the Big Ten. They're used to being the biggest and baddest, and they want to stay that way. There are teams they covet, and all of them would be willing to bolt if asked. I see five spots and five obvious teams to fill them: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. So how does it set up?

SEC East
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
Miami
South Carolina
Tennessee

SEC West
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

That's quite a behemoth.  The ACC is in trouble if this happens, but that'll be addressed in my next step...


Step four - The ACC gets frantic:

Poached of some of its more desirable programs, the ACC is now left with a stark choice:  dissolve or add some new schools. I think the answer is clear, because there are plenty of football/basketball programs left in the East. The first move would be to absorb the remaining Big East schools: Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Syracuse. An invite to Army and Navy would clean up the Independents and get the ACC to thirteen teams, not to mention show some respect for the service academies. Here the ACC would be faced with an interesting decision:  do they try to get to sixteen by adding mediocre programs, add one mediocre program, or stay at an unbalanced thirteen? My gut tells me they'd go for the full complement of sixteen in a "throw 'em at the wall and see what sticks," approach. Rounding out the league, I like Temple, East Carolina, and UCF.

Atlantic
Army
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Temple
Wake Forest

Coastal
Central Florida
Connecticut
Duke
East Carolina
Navy
North Carolina
Syracuse
Virginia

That actually doesn't look like a bad conference.  It might be a little marginalized in football what with the service academies and Temple, but I think those programs are respectable enough.  In basketball it would remain a wonderfully strong league.


Step Five - The Pac 10 reluctantly joins the party:

Pac Ten purists would love to remain at ten teams and only ten teams. They like history. Faced with the four behemoths above, however (and a healthy dose of East Coast Bias - at least in terms of coverage) they would have no choice but to reach out to other quality programs. I don't anticipate them leaping to a full sixteen, but I think four programs do bring to the table quality in both sports and academics. The Pac could hit up the Mountain West for BYU, UNLV, and Utah...and could extend a much-deserved offer to Boise State. I hate to suggest this, for fear of West Coast wrath, but I think a name change would be in order. Dare I say, "the Pacific Coast Conference"?

North
Boise State
BYU
Oregon
Oregon State
Utah
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Stanford
UCLA
UNLV
USC

So there you have it:  five mega-conferences with an even bigger stranglehold on the BCS, or on whatever succeeds it. There is some cleanup left to do before moving on to basketball, but the above teams would clearly be the "haves" and the rest would feel like an afterthought. I would assume that some of the poached smaller conferences would amalgamate - also into fairly large units - and that is step six.


Step Six - Mid-major consolidation:

As much as I hate the term mid-major, it applies here, and perhaps more than ever before. The teams that remain will be marginalized in ways I'd rather not see happen. If expansion is a reality, though, then that reality will leave a lot of teams in  terrible positions. What I envision is three conferences of fourteen teams consolidated from the five existing leagues. They should line up more or less geographically, although the number of teams from each area makes that difficult. An invite to the Big Twelve (or whatever number it ends up with) for Marshall and one for Air Force would improve the situation - but I had already considered and rejected that above. Consider that option B. In any case, the three final leagues I'd like to see are, in no particular order:

Gulf Coast Area Conference (AKA SEC Lite)
Arkansas State
FAU
FIU
Houston
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee
Rice
Southern Miss
Troy
Tulane
UAB
Western Kentucky

I know Middle Tennesse is not in the Gulf Coast area, really.  Tough.  They could of course be placed in the "New MAC" below.

WAC (or Mountain West, or something new)
Colorado State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas
San Diego State
San Jose State
Southern Methodist
Utah State
UTEP
Wyoming

NMAC (New Mid-American Conference)
Air Force
Akron
Ball State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Kent State
Marshall
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Tulsa
Western Michigan

The Geography isn't perfect.  Houston is better than the league in which it landed.  Otherwise, I am satisfied with that arrangement.


Wrap-up of the Football Landscape:

There are several primary reasons (or at least positive consequences) of the setup I've laid out.

1. No team currently in a BCS-affiliated league gets left out of the party.
2. Several teams that need to be IN the party get there (Boise and Utah are the headliners)
3. A few less obvious choices will get their shot as well
4. No more Independents
5. Two of the Service Academies get respect
6. Most rivalries are preserved and new rivalries are created
7. The conferences are closer in size - ranging from 14 to 16 teams each instead of 8 to 12
8. There is room for some FCS programs to move up in time, joining either the three "lesser" conferences or even the Big 14 or PCC.
9. With only eight conferences, there's a possibility that the BCS could add another game and have representation from every conference.  I would be ecstatic.  We're not getting a playoff, so an eight-conference format with each champ getting an auto-bid might be a worthy compromise.

Stay tuned for the basketball version to follow shortly.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Basketball Preview

Rutgers enters the 2009-2010 basketball season with something of a foul taste in its mouth.  With a roster that included Anthony Farmer, JR Inman, Corey Chandler, Mike Rosario, and Gregory Echenique they expected to win a modest but respectable number of Big East games.  Instead they won two, and Farmer and Inman are gone. Chandler has been dismissed from the team, as well. There is one intriguing recruit and a JUCO transfer added to the mix, along with a couple of lesser-known freshmen, so this is probably close to the same team in terms of talent. Can Fred Hill get a little more out of them this year?  One thing in their favor is the brutal schedule they played last year.  That slate featured 11 games against NCAA tournament teams (including all four #1 seeds), five more against NIT teams, and a stretch during which six of seven opponents were ranked fifteen or higher.  So they are certainly prepared to take the court against difficult teams.

Team Info

Head Coach:

Fred Hill, 4th season

'08-'09 Results:

11-21 Overall, 2-17 Big East

no postseason

Departing Players:

G Anthony Farmer

G-F Jaron Griffin

F JR Inman
G Corey Chandler

Returning Players:
C Hamady Ndiaye (Sr.)

G Mike Coburn (Jr.)
F Gregory Echenique (So.)
F Patrick Jackson (So.)
F Tomasz Kokosinski (So.)
G Mike Kuhn (So.)
G Mike Rosario (So.)

Newcomers:
G James Beatty (JUCO)
F Jonathan Mitchell (transfer, Florida)
G Mohamed Hasani (Kosovo)
PF Austin Johnson
F Dane Miller
C Brian Okam


(Full Roster)



Nonconference Slate:  Marist, Drexel, Vermont, Massachusetts, Princeton, Colgate, Monmouth, Rider, NJIT, St. Peter's, @ North Carolina

Big East home-and-home:  Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall

Big East Home Opponents:  Cincinnati, Syracuse, Villanova, Notre Dame, St. John's, Connecticut


Big East Road Opponents:  West Virginia, Providence, South Florida, Marquette, Louisville, Pittsburgh


Legends Classic:  The Drexel and Vermont games are regional openers for this tournament.  Rutgers will then face UMass in a preset semifinal in Atlantic city, and finally either Michigan State or Florida in the consolation or championship game.


Coaches' Pick: 15th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

Rosario and Echenique carried a lot of hope with them in coming to Rutgers last year, but largely failed to deliver on it.  Rosario is clearly thier best talent, and he did put up very good freshman numbers, but it remains to be seen if Echenique can carry the load up front.  He'll get help if Jonathan Mitchell turns in better performances than his average game for Florida, and if true freshman Dane Miller is able to contribute right away. JUCO transfer James Beatty should be able to make up for most of what was lost in Anthony Farmer, but there's always a question mark when these athletes switch to Division I competition.  Another story worth keeping an eye on is the performance of Mohamed Hansi out of Europe; he could be an unexpected boost.  So there are a lot of intriguing players on this roster, but as each one save Rosario comes with a question mark I suspect this will not lead to any great heights.  If they are to surprise people they will need better contributions (and some stronger leadership) to returning players Hamady Ndiaye, and Mike Coburn.

Best Case:

Understand that what I'm about to say will take something akin to the aligning of planets...but since we have seen such things in the sports world before I will be true to the term "Best Case."  If Rosario adds even a little more to his game, pushing his average to 18-20 points; if Echenique and Ndiaye prove that their lackluster numbers were a product of the elite frontcourt competition last year; and if Beatty, Mitchell (who does have a national title, by the way), Miller, and Hasani all produce - the Knights could ride into conference play with a surprising 9-2 record.  This would include losses to North Carolina and to Michigan State in the Legends Classic championship game.  They could sweep a two game set at DePaul, split with both Seton Hall and Georgetown (two teams who I think will fail to meet expectations) and rattle off 4-5 more Big East wins.  That kind of performance would land them at around 17-12, 8-10 with a chance for another win or two in the Garden.  That kind of season could carry with it an invite to the NIT.

Worst Case:

The flip side of course (which I unfortunately see as the more likely scenario) could involve the wheels falling off very early.  Since Rosario is the only "sure thing" on the roster, a regression by him could easily cost them some games they should win.  This will especially be true if the returning bigs fail to step up in the way that's needed.  Both transfers are unproven in Division I, and could easily disappoint.  This combination would make it very hard for the incoming freshmen to adjust, whatever their talent level.  A series of disasters like that could well get them a record closer to 7-22, 3-15.

My Best Guess:

11-18 Overall, 4-16 Big East (15th place) with an opening round loss in the Big East tournament.  I know it isn't optimistic, but I just wouldn't count on more than half of the questions to be answered favorably.