Basketball (The Spare Parts)
I love college basketball, so calling it "the spare parts" hurts. That's how it'll be treated, though, so to be honest in my process I have to approach it that way. I am going to try to treat basketball as thoroughly as I did football, but close to 350 teams is a lot. It is worth some effort, though, to establish what might happen to the Big East's basketball-only members once the football schools vanish...and what the fallout from all of this might be.
As with yesterday's football section, please understand that there is a lot of "what I'd like to see happen" and very little of "what I predict will happen." Since I'm 99% sure that the ideal football scenarios I described won't even approximate reality, we'll never know if the basketball side would turn out my way or not.
Step One - The Big East Survives (Really?):
I admit that this may be the least realistic part of my scenario. I am a huge fan of Big East basketball, and so my thinking on this is likely as tinged with bias as any topic save my own alma mater. I have heard the argument that without the football revenue, the Big East could not exist. That makes sense, except that there are a whole boatload of Basketball-only conferences. The Big East has a leg up on them in that it already has capital from football sources.
Taking just the seven basketball-only members (excluding Notre Dame) there is a lot of basketball tradition - and a pretty good start to a conference in its own right. DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova...every name either has a history of greatness that could be revived with the right leadership (DePaul, St. John's, etc.) or is currently enjoying a period of greatness (Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova). The "Big East" label, and that core group, should be enough to entice some of the more prestigious "mid-major" teams to join up. Some of the ideal teams - Memphis and Temple and perhaps East Carolina and UCF - have already been swallowed up in the football pandemonium. That still leaves some great programs ripe for the picking and probably antsy for a move, though.
Dayton and Xavier are obvious choices from the A-10. Given that the Big East has established a precedent of not caring about geography, Butler springs to mind as another clear choice, not to mention a knee-jerk favorite. At that point it gets a little dicier. UAB and Kent State would be quality additions, but how committed would they be to their new football homes? Does the Big East dig further into the A-10, scavenge the leftovers from CUSA, or try to grab some of the more respected programs from the less recognized leagues in the East? I don't see them expanding into Texas for UTEP or Houston. A partial solution could be UMass for their history and St. Joseph's for the Big Five matchup with Villanova. I'd round that out with George Mason and VCU. The final two spots, failing UAB and Kent State, could be given to George Washington and someone else..Charlotte? Rhode Island? Vermont? Duquesne? It's kind of a crap shoot. Call it Duquesne to make two even divisions.
East
Georgetown
George Mason
George Washington
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
VCU
UMass
West
Butler
Dayton
DePaul
Duquesne
Marquette
St. Joseph's
Xavier
Villanova
It's not perfect. It isn't nearly the powerhouse it once was, and it would take time for it to be as competitive in basketball as the five neo-BCS Goliaths...but I think that's about the best large conference that could be assembled with the remaining teams. It's riddled with programs with potential and histories of greatness.
Step Two - Finding a home for the A-10 Stragglers:
At this point, the remaining Atlantic Ten teams would be at something of a loss. Here's what that conference would temporarily look like:
Charlotte
Fordham
La Salle
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure
Not much of a conference. Fortunately for those schools, most of them have what seem like obvious new homes. The New England-heavy America East would be a wonderful place for URI and the New York schools (Fordham and St. Bonaventure). La Salle isn't a perfect fit, but they would likely be welcome as well. Then, what better place for a school in the former Confederate capital and a North Carolina school than the Big South? St. Louis is a bit of a poser. They would fit well geographically, of course, in the Missouri Valley Conference. But would the MVC welcome them? In a period of such conference turmoil I would lean toward yes. If not, the Atlantic Sun would be a real possibility.
Step Three - Fighting for the Patriot League:
With this conference down to 6 teams, and two of its identifying programs gone for greener pastures, the conventional wisdom would be that this conference would fold. I think, though, that a more radical solution would be in order. The brass of the league might propose a merger with the Colonial. Further, to replace Army and Navy in the "patriotic" category I believe they would invite VMI and Citadel. The league would remain thematically appropriate, and swell to the size that the conferences are all tending toward. This would form a modern Patriot league of:
American
Bucknell
Citadel
Colgate
Delaware
Drexel
Hofstra
Holy Cross
James Madison
Lafayette
Lehigh
Northeastern
Old Dominion
Towson
VMI
William and Mary
You'll note that Georgia State and UNC-Wilmington are out of the mix; this is primarily because I don't think the Patriot would want 18 teams, and the 16 programs above seem like the best fits, both thematically and geographically.
Step Four - The Missouri Valley Exerts Some Force:
The Valley has the reputation that at this point in such a wild scenario, any remaining school they invited wouldn't hesitate. The question, then, becomes: who would they invite? St. Louis seems like an obvious first choice, as mentioned above. After the Billikens, there are a number of directions they could go. Their most crucial decision it how committed they are to their regional identity versus the quality of the programs they're willing to accept. I don't see them expanding beyond the six states already occupied; neither do I see them inviting a program they evaluate and find wanting. There are eleven schools up for grabs in those states: SIU-Edwardsville, Southeast Missouri State, Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, UMKC, Loyola (IL), Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso, IPFW, IUPUI, and Chicago State.
If they want to get to sixteen schools, it would be possible for them to do so without expanding the region that their current schools belong to by so much as a mile. To to accomplish this they would need to take, in addition to St. Louis: Edwardsville, Southeast Missouri St., Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, and UMKC. However, I don't see them making as dubious a move as bringing in a branch campus of a regional school that's already a league member. Eliminating that school from consideration would mean the league would have to expand geographically as well as in number, so from that decision forward all schools would have to be considered on an even playing field.
The next move to eliminate would be a dip into the brand new Great West Conference for Chicago State. Beyond that, I won't pretend to have any insight into the relative strengths of the programs, and admit that my choices here are somewhat arbitrary. I'll posit a 16-team MVC that looks like this:
Bradley
Creighton
Drake
Eastern Illinois
Evansville
Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Saint Louis
Southeast Missouri State
Southern Illinois
UMKC
Valparaiso
Western Illinois
Wichita State
That alignment doesn't necessarily make the MVC any better, but it does keep them up to speed with regard to the number of revenue sources they can tap. I see them as somewhat unique in not really desiring to branch out into new TV markets, because their regional identity is strong.
Step Five - Cleanup:
The remaining conferences would certainly be trying to attain a larger size (except for the Ivy League) to meet with the new conventional setting. The more prestigious leagues are more or less aligned at this point, so I don't think there would be a lot of hesitation in swallowing up the independents, Great West teams, and the leftovers from the Colonial and Sun Belt.
Perhaps the "duh" move in all this is Cal State Bakersfield to the all-California Big West. Chicago State to the Horizon is also something that fits well without much thought. The Big Sky would probably like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Denver...and those programs would more than likely fall in line. Utah Valley State would likely come along for the ride. The MAAC and NJIT would probably be a good fit. The Southland and SWAC would likely jockey for the remaining three Sun Belt Schools; I have a slight preference for New Orleans in the SWAC with Arkansas Little Rock and South Alabama joining the Southland. The SWAC, feeling pressure to keep pace with its local rival, might then be maneuvered into inviting Houston Baptist and Texas-Pan American. The Southern Conference probably has more drawing power than the MEAC, so Savannah State, North Carolina Central, Winston-Salem, Georgia State, and UNC-Wilmington will probably find their new homes there. The MEAC could probably land Longwood, though - not that that would make them feel much better. Seattle to the West Coast Conference would leave SIU-Edwardsville as the lone homeless program (for now). Even as I type this sentence, I've not yet decided what to do with them.
Step Six - Dissolution and Consolidation:
First, there are two conferences that would stand little chance of surviving all of this: The Ohio Valley and the Summit. Their teams would need new homes. The Tennessee schools (this includes Austin Peay, remember) and Jacksonville State would round out the Atlantic Sun nicely. The Horizon could swallow up IUPUI, IPFW, and Oakland with minimal effort. The Kentucky schools (E Kentucky, Morehead State, and Murray State) to a slightly desperate Big South would be a high probability move.
Here's where I need to apply the breaks. I have been setting up some conferences that I don't think will really continue to exist. All of this is, after all, a more fluid process than the series of steps I'm describing. As such, the Big West, Big Sky, and MAAC as they would "exist" at this point in my intellectual exercise are mere placeholders. I don't believe that they have the strength to all survive in anything approximating their present forms, even as they try to make overtures to new schools. In the case of the MAAC it's two few quality programs and too many conferences in the area. For the other two, it's the West Coast Conference and its pair of heavyweights throwing every piece of effort they can into keeping up with the Joneses.
Gonzaga, and to a lesser extent St. Mary's, are a pair of great programs that thus far have been getting the shaft. Sadly, this is one of the few pieces of my little scenario that I see as a near inevitability. Under this kind of pressure, the East Coast schools that get left out WILL try to consolidate to form another basketball-only superconference, or at least another MVC. Gonzaga and the few other programs of real quality out west not already in a BCS league will want to make a counter move, but there simply aren't enough schools with enough basketball tradition and/or present firepower to make that happen. In the absence of that, the West Coast Conference, under pressure from its two most recognized names, will try to invite every good program it can get. This would start with, I believe, Pacific, Sacramento State, and Portland State. Any program beyond those three would probably water down the average quality of WCC teams, but I don't see that league being satisfied with twelve members in a world of behemoth associations. Weber State, Northern Arizona, and Northridge are probably the next three best. I would guess the WCC's aggression would end there.
What we're left with is a group of 21 teams (not counting Centenary, who is way off in the East) and two half-alive conferences (see also: a big mess). The Horizon league would probably gracefully accept Oral Roberts to expand their viewing area, dropping the number to an equally unmanageable 20. If the WCC extends an olive branch to, say, Long Beach State, we've chipped it down to 19. For now, just for the sake of argument, let's say that the remaining Big Sky, Big West, and Summit teams amalgamate into an unprecedented, 19-team "Great Western Sky." This is partly for convenience, because frankly some of these teams - remember, I added some independents and Great West members earlier - will probably not survive as D-IA Programs. Edwardsville is now joined for now by another homeless in Centenary.
This brings us very near to the end of the madness. The MAAC, at 11 teams counting NJIT, just doesn't have many programs of significant quality to hold it together 4 or 5 teams short of the new standard league size. The first step in its demise would probably be Fairfield to the America East; my second confidence pick would be Loyola (MD) to the MEAC. Ideally, the nine schools that are left (all of them in New York) would be split to bring each of the following leagues - the MEAC, the America East, and the Northeast - to sixteen teams apiece. I'll call it this way: Siena and Niagara to the America East; Marist, Rider, and Manhattan to the MEAC; and Iona, Canisius, St. Peter's, and NJIT to the NEC.
This leaves just two small pieces of business: finding a home for poor, forgotten, SIU Edwardsville and Centenary. Glancing across a page with all of the new conferences laid out, each has a fitting home should the conference make the offer. The Horizon League would reach a respectable fourteen team mark with Edwardsville; The SWAC would get there by inviting Centenary. Both schools fit with those leagues regionally and would slide into several natural rivalries. Heck, some of those rivalries might already exist...I'm not well-versed enough in mid-major basketball to know.
Wrap-Up of the Basketball Landscape:
What on Earth is the result of all that I mentioned above and in the previous post? We're left with twenty-three basketball leagues ranging in size from eight to nineteen teams. The vest majority of these leagues, though, are either fourteen or sixteen teams strong. You may have noticed that I've said next to nothing about the Ivy League. That's because, for the purposes of expansion and realignment they can be considered not to exist. They aren't accepting anyone new. They aren't kicking anyone out. They aren't folding. Since they have different rules for the postseason anyway, they don't matter as the low outlier in conference size. The Great Western Sky, on the other end of the spectrum, doesn't matter as an outlier because they have several programs which could easily slide out of Division 1-A in five or fewer years.
Below I'll list the conferences and their members that have not yet appeared either yesterday or today. Those I have already included are, in alphabetical order: ACC, Big 14, Big East, Bigger Ten, Gulf Coast Area Conference, Missouri Conference, New MAC, Patriot, PCC, SEC, and WAC/MWC. The Ivy League is excluded below because it experienced no changes.
| America East | Atlantic Sun | Big South | Great Western Sky |
| Albany | Austin Peay | Charleston Southern | Cal Poly |
| Binghamton | Belmont | Charlotte | Cal State Bakersfield |
| Boston University | Campbell | Coastal Carolina | Cal State Fullerton |
| Fairfield | East Tennessee State | Eastern Kentucky | Denver |
| Fordham | Florida Gulf Coast | Gardner-Webb | Eastern Washington |
| Hartford | Jacksonvile | High Point | Idaho State |
| La Salle | Jacksonville State | Liberty | Montana |
| Maine | Kennesaw State | Morehead State | Montana State |
| New Hampshire | Lipscomb | Murray State | North Dakota |
| Niagara | Mercer | Presbyterian | North Dakota State |
| Rhode Island | North Florida | Radford | Northern Colorado |
| Siena | Stetson | Richmond | South Dakota |
| St. Bonaventure | Tennessee State | Winthrop | South Dakota State |
| Stony Brook | Tennessee Tech | UNC-Asheville | Southern Utah |
| UMBC | Tennessee Martin | UC Davis | |
| Vermont | USC Upstate | UC Irvine | |
| UC Riverside | |||
| UC Santa Barbara | |||
| Utah Valley State |
| Horizon | MEAC | Northeast | SoCon |
| Chicago State | Bethune-Cookman | Bryant | Appalachian State |
| Cleveland State | Coppin State | Canisius | Charleston |
| Detroit | Delaware State | Central Conn St. | Chattanooga |
| Green Bay | FAMU | Fairleigh Dickinson | Davidson |
| Illinois Chicago | Hampton | Iona | Elon |
| IPFW | Howard | Long Island | Furman |
| IUPUI | Longwood | Monmouth | Georgia Southern |
| Loyola (IL) | Loyola (MD) | Mount St. Mary's | Georgia State |
| Milwaukee | Manhattan | NJIT | North Carolina Central |
| Oakland | Marist | Quinnipiac | Samford |
| Oral Roberts | Maryland Eastern Shore | Robert Morris | Savannah State |
| SIU-Edwardsville | Morgan State | Sacred Heart | UNC-Greensboro |
| Wright State | Norfolk State | St. Francis (NY) | UNC-Wilmington |
| Youngstown State | North Carolina A&T | St. Francis (PA) | Western Carolina |
| Rider | St. Peter's | Winston-Salem | |
| South Carolina State | Wagner | Wofford |
| Southland | SWAC | West Coast |
| Arkansas Little Rock | Alabama A&M | Cal State Northridge |
| Central Arkansas | Alabama State | Gonzaga |
| Lamar | Alcorn State | Long Beach State |
| McNeese State | Arkansas Pine Bluff | Loyola Marymount |
| Nicholls State | Centenary | Northern Arizona |
| Northwestern State | Grambling State | Pacific |
| Sam Houston State | Houston Baptist | Pepperdine |
| South Alabama | Jackson State | Portland |
| Southeastern Louisiana | Mississippi Valley State | Portland State |
| Stephen F. Austin | New Orleans | Sacramento State |
| Texas A&M CC | Prairie View A&M | San Diego |
| Texas Arlington | Southern | San Francisco |
| Texas San Antonio | Texas Pan-American | Santa Clara |
| Texas State | Texas Southern | Seattle |
| St. Mary's | ||
| Weber State |
Taking the time to glance back at the above, I find that I am satisfied.My only regret to this format would be the failure to establish a western basketball-only league like the new Big East. This means that just about everyone would be happy with the exceptions of Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and a couple of similar schools. As with the football scenario, though, there are a number of positive consequences.
- The new arrangement of teams groups them in ways that make sense geographically, academically, and thematically while also working for the purposes of athletics.
- All teams are part of a conference.
- Almost all of the conferences are similar in size, and those that aren't don't need to be.
- There would only be 23 auto-bids to the new, 68-team NCAA tournament format. This would virtually ensure that the only "bad" teams in the field would be playing in the play-in games. Hopefully that would open the door for smaller schools rather than allow sub-.500 power conference teams in.
