Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Preview

This is one more Big East team that played well for a lot of last season only to puzzlingly disappear down the stretch.  Part of the problem was losing freshman point guard Cashmere Wright to injury, but some wonder if the problems are a little deeper.  The Big East coaches voted them to finish seventh - an improvement but a modest one - in part because of those doubts.  Wright is not the biggest story, though.  That would have to be the addition of Lance Stephenson, a controversial player who I have tabbed as my preseason FOY for the league.  The team's only departing player of note is forward Mike Williams, and Stephenson's production should more than make up for that loss.  Part of the thinking is that Wright's return to action will not only improve ball distribution but free up senior guard Deonta Vaughn to do what he does best: score.  Yancy Gates and Ibrahima Thomas will round out a talented starting five, unless of course Dion Dixon or Larry Davis get the call instead.  Mick Cronin and the Bearcat faithful believe they finally have the roster to get their program back to the dominance it once showed.  As has been widely documented, the Big East is probably an easier league to do that in now than a year ago...so is this the year Cincinnati makes some serious noise?


Team Info

Head Coach:
Mick Cronin, 4th season

'08-'09 Results:
18-14 Overall, 8-11 Big East
no postseason

Departing Players:
F Kenny Belton
G Branden Miller
F Mike Williams

Returning Players:
C Steve Toyloy (Sr.)
G Deonta Vaughn (Sr.)
F Rashad Bishop (Jr.)
G Larry Davis (Jr.)
C Anthony McClain (Jr.)
F Darnell Wilks (Jr.)
G Dion Dixon (So.)
F Yancy Gates (So.)

Newcomers:
F Ibrahima Thomas (transfer, Oklahoma State)
G Edie Tyree (JUCO)
PG Cashmere Wright (RS)
G Alex Eppensteiner
SG Sean Kilpatrick
G Anthony McBride
G Jaquon Parker
SF Lance Stephenson

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Prairie View A&M, Toledo, @ Vanderbilt, Texas Southern, Miami (OH), @ Xavier, @ UAB, Lipscomb, Winthrop, Cal State-Bakersfield

Big East home-and-home:  Connecticut, Notre Dame, South Florida

Big East Home Opponents:  Pittsburgh, Providence, Syracuse, Marquette, DePaul, Villanova


Big East Road Opponents:  Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John's, Louisville, West Virginia, Georgetown

Maui Invitational:  This is another tournament loaded with talented teams.  Cincinnati will play Vanderbilt to get things going, and then Chaminade or Maryland in the winners' or losers' bracket.  Their third and final game will be against one of four opponents from the bottom half of the bracket: Colorado, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

Coaches' Pick: 7th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

The only position on the floor that is questionable for the Bearcats is Center.  Steve Toyloy hasn't been impressive, and neither has his backup Anthony McClain.  Toyloy will probably get his share of starts, butt here are some ways around the middle being a liability.  First, Gates can be played at Center and (once eligible in January) Ibrahima Thomas can join Gates and Stephenson up front.  With Wright and Vaughn in the backcourt, that is one heck of a formidable starting five.  While waiting for Thomas, though, I expect to see a lot of three and maybe even four guard lineups trotted out.  Dixon and Davis aren't flashy, but can hold their own and put together some solid minutes between them last year.  They may also wish to see what JUCO transfer Eddie Tyree can do early.  They do have five guards worthy of serious playing time.  The one true concern may be depth up front.  Improvements by Toyloy and/or McClain - as well as Darnell Wilks and Rashad Bishop - may turn into an x-factor if foul trouble becomes any kind of theme.  The roster features four players (Vaughn, Gates, Wright, and Stephenson) who should be capable of taking over games at times and several quality roleplayers as well.  If the new guys make their presence felt early enough, they could be better than even I think they will.

Best Case:

I consider them a dark horse to do so, but they have the kind of roster that can win a league championship.  If Vaughn takes advantage of his newfound freedom, he could average 18-20.  Gates should develop from his freshman season and show real dominance.  If Stephenson and Wright have smooth transitions, that will make them eevn more deadly.  All it would take is one out of Thomas, Dixon, Davis, or Tyree stepping up in a big way to make them serious contenders.  If they want to win a Big East title, though, they'll also need quality minutes out of the rest of the roster when someone needs to sit.  Get that, and they could sail through the ooc to burst onto the scene.  The 12-0 nonleague record they could put together would feature impressive wins over Vanderbilt, likely Maryland and Gonzaga, and at Xavier.  Four of their six repeat games are tough, so they probably can't win them all but 5-1 could happen.  They could also win all the remaining home games, capped with an upset of league favorite Villanova, and perhaps go 4-2 on the road.  That would put them at 27-3, 15-3 and under the right circumstances that could mean a Big East title.  I'm not so sure a team very reliant on freshmen could win the Big East Tournament, but the double bye would help.

Worst Case:

Things could, of course, go wrong.  Vaughn could stay where he was last year or regress slightly switching positions.  Maybe Gates doesn't play better as a sophomore than as a freshmen.  Maybe the new kids take some time to learn.  Most likely of the maybes, maybe no one beyond those four has a great year, and the team starts to lose some games when fouls rear their ugly heads.  Under the weight of all those maybes becoming yesses, they're still pretty good.  They should lose more than 2 or 3 out of conference.  They'll sweep South Florida and I'm sure notch at least one of the four games against ND and UConn.  There are only three visiting teams (Pitt, Syracuse, and Villanova) that should give them problems, and the road slate, while difficult, shouldn't be worse than .500 either.  So what I'm projecting as their worst possible outcome is 18-12, 9-9 and good for eighth or ninth place.  Honestly a finish that low would really surprise me, but I suppose it is believable.

My Best Guess:

24-6 Overall, 13-5 Big East (4th place) plus a seed adjustment in the conference tournament (meaning a win or two).  I like this team's stars too much to project worse than that, but don't think they are quite at the level of teams 1-3 in my projected standings (Villanova, West Virginia, and Connecticut).


Maui Invitational logo from Marquette.Scout.com
Bearcats logo from gamewornuniforms.com