Villanova Wildcats Basketball Preview

Hype is everywhere for the preseason Big East favorite.  The coaches picked 'em to win and both polls have them in the top ten.  And why not?  They had an impressive Final Four season last year and their flashiest player from that team - Scottie Reynolds - is back.  They also return Corey Stokes, Corey Fisher, and Reggie Redding, and that alone is enough to give other teams pause.  What they do lose is almost all of their production from the frontcourt.  Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark, and Dwayne Anderson have all moved on to greener pastures, so clearly there is a hole to fill.  They do bring in what most consider the strongest recruiting class in the conference, though, so at least some of the answers should be right there.  The freshman class features four top fifty recruits (read: eight percent of the nation's fifty highest-rated newcomers) and a fifth guy who was "only" ranked 25th at his position.  The general "theyre freshmen" disclaimer applies, but when the class is that deep it seems to me you're guaranteed at least one or two will produce immediately.  Jay Wright is no slouch on the sidelines, either.  Rather than cherry-picking the things to say about his accomplishments, I'll refer you to what the program has to say.  Can they live up to expectations?  Is there one glaring concern really going to glare that brightly?


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jay Wright, 9th season


'08-'09 Results:
30-8 Overall, 14-6 Big East
Final Four (3 Seed)

Departing Players:
G-F Dwayne Anderson
F Shane Clark
F Dante Cunningham
F Frank Tchuisi

Returning Players:
G Jason Colenda (Sr.)
G Reggie Redding (Sr.)
G Scottie Reynolds (Sr.)
F Russell Wooten (Sr.)

G Corey Fisher (Jr.)
F Antonia Pena (Jr.)
G Corey Stokes (Jr.)


Newcomers:
F Taylor King (transfer, Duke)
PF Isaiah Armwood
G-F Dominic Cheek
C Maurice Sutton
PG Maalik Wayns
PF Mouphtaou Yarou

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Fairleigh Dickinson, Pennsylvania, George Mason, La Salle, Drexel, @Maryland, @Saint Joseph's, @Temple, @Fordham, Delaware

Big East home-and-home: Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia

Big East Home Opponents:  DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, Connecticut, South Florida

Big East Road Opponents: Louisville, Rutgers, St. John's, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati

Puerto Rico Season Tip-Off:  Villanova is matched up with George Mason to start this event off.  If they win, they will face the winner of Dayton and Georgia Tech.  Win again and they would be in a championship game against Indiana, Mississippi, Boston University, or Kansas State.  That's a great field to be a part of.

Coaches' Pick:  1st, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

The team is simply loaded with talent.  The backcourt is the deepest in the nation, and I have yet to find another roster I would even compare it to.  In a traditional 1-5 setup, one could easily piece together three competent starting backcourts at this level of play.  Just as an exercise I'll pair: Reynolds with Dominic Cheek, Fisher with Reggie Redding, and Stokes with Maalik Wayns.  Most coaches would be happy with any of those duos as a starting point.  Clearly though there is less certainty up front.  Collectively Cunningham, Clark, and Anderson are a lot to replace.  I remain very high on this team, though, because frankly I don't think Cunningham is as big a loss as it appears.  What he did last year was very helpful to his team, and the number look good, but really he just made sure he was adequate up front to let the guard play do what it does.  It is true that combined with the other departures it leaves a hole, but the recruits seem more than adequate to fill it.  Armwood, Sutton, and Yarou were brought in just for this purpose.  Dominic Cheek is capable of helping out up front as well, even if I did count him as a guard above.  So to me the question is not if the trio up front can be replaced but how quickly the youngsters can do it.

Best Case:

I'm going to be brief here because frankly there is basically one variable to look at.  IF the freshmen step in right away they will be a phenomenal team.  I'm talking winning the Puerto Rico Season tipoff to go 12-0 out of conference and wining a Big East title good.  They get a pretty favorable set of home-and-homes, and the swing of whether they win the league or not will come down to those two games against the Mountaineers.  They do have a brutal slate of "Big East Road Opponents" above, so I believe 4-2 there is about the best any team could expect.  Going undefeated at home is not out of the question.  If somehow they manage to sweep the other favorite, that could bring them to 28-2 Overall, 16-2 Big East and I wouldn't put it beyond them to sweep the league titles.

Worst Case:

Growing pains could hurt them, but I don't see this team losing more than twice out of conference.  If one of those losses is in Puerto Rico that might make it 9-2 instead of 10-2.  They could easily slip up once against Georgetown and twice against WVU (again, those games are HUGE).  I see though at worst 4-2 against the rest of the teams visiting them.  On the road, it would be easy to slip in Louisville, at St. John's, to a Pitt team with revenge on its mind, and to either Syracuse or Cincinnati.  Still, that puts the worst I see them doing at 19-10 Overall, 10-8 Big East (and really I doubt it gets worse than 12-6, that's assuming they lose all the games they might).  Nothing that happens in the Garden should keep them from making an NCAA Tournament.

My Best Guess:

27-3 Overall, 15-3 Big East (1st place) to include cutting down those nets in Puerto Rico.  I don't see them sweeping both league titles, but they should show well in the Big East Tournament regardless.  I really think that freshman class will have people wondering who Cunningham, Clark, and Anderson were by about mid season.



Wildcats logo from achahockey.org
Jay Wright image from collegeinsider.com
Scottie Reynolds image from nj.com
OReilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Season Tip Off logo from xosnetwork.com