Connecticut Huskies Basketball Preview

This would be another good time to point out that I am no longer doing these previews in reverse order of my projected standings.  I have altered these in an attempt to get each team previewed before its first regular season game.  UConn opens play tonight at 7:30, so they have moved up the queue.

Can a Final Four team lose its top three scorers and still be in a position  to contend for a return trip?  If so, the Huskies are a prime candidate to prove it this year.  Jeff Adrien, AJ Price, Hasheem Thabeet, and key reserve Craig Austrie are gone.  It's a lot to replace, but the incoming class is stacked.  Four of the five are top 100 recruits.  At this point, though, they are just that - recruits.  So there are no guarantees.  Still, you have to appreciate the job Jim Calhoun has done in keeping quality players on this team.  Amid controversey and the lost of four of his most important players he has put together a roster that is getting top ten consideration already.  The coach has his detractors, but love him or hate him what he has meant to this program is undeniable.  He has them in a position from which they expect to make an NCAA Tournament and contend for a Big East title every year.  But how realistic are these goals this time out?  Does this roster have the juice?

Team Info

Head Coach:

Jim Calhoun, 24th season

'08-'09 Results:
31-5 Overall, 15-4 Big East
Final Four (1 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Jeff Adrien
G Craig Austrie
G Johnnie Bird
G-F Scottie Haralson
F John Lindner
G AJ Price
C Hasheem Thabeet
F Jim Veronick

Returning Players:
G Jerome Dyson (Sr.)
F-C Gavin Edwards (Sr.)
F Alex Hornat (Sr.)
C Jonathan Mandeldove (Sr.)
F Stanley Robinson (Sr.)
G Kyle Bailey (Jr.)
G Donnell Beverly (Jr.)
C Charles Okwandu (Jr.)
G Kemba Walker (So.)

Newcomers:
G-F Jamal Coombs-McDaniel
PF Ater Majok (ineligible until Spring semester)
C Alex Oriakhi
SG Darius Smith
SG Jamaal Trice

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  William and Mary, Colgate, Boston University, Harvard, Kentucky, Central Florida, Maine, Iona, @ Michigan, Texas

Big East home-and-home:  Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Louisville

Big East Home Opponents:  Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Marquette, DePaul, West Virginia

Big East Road Opponents:  Georgetown, Providence, Syracuse, Villanova, Rutgers, South Florida

NIT Season Tip-Off:  Connecticut opens play in this tournament against Colgate.  Win that, and they face the winner of Hofstra and Yale.  The other quarter of the bracket on their side contains LSU, Indiana State, Western Kentucky, and Milwaukee.  If they win their side of the bracket they will face most likely Duke in the championship game.

Coaches' Pick:  3rd, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

It's easy to see that there are holes to fill on this team.  But a close look at the roster produces a lot of scenarios under which most of those holes might be filled.  I'll give an example.  Hasheem Thabeet was a defensive presence and shot-blocker that comes around maybe once a decade in the college game.  They aren't going to replace that part of his game.  However, the combination of Gavin Edwards (who shot .638 from the field and .745 from the stripe last year) and Alex Oriakhi (the highest-rated of four top 100 freshmen coming in) may well make up for the rest of his production.  AJ Price averaged 14.7 points and 4.7 assists last year...but Kemba Walker's stats project nicely.  Without even considering development from a freshman to sophomore season, his numbers adjusted for the extra minutes Price played would be 11.2 and 3.7.  Criag Austrie was a very serviceable bench player, but Darius Smith and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel appear immediately capable of being that or more.  Perhaps the toughest loss to replace will be Jeff Adrien, but Gavin Edwards projects similarly to Kemba Walker in terms of comparison.  That whole scenario doesn't even take into account the midseason jolt of Ater Majok.  Obviously none of these things is a given.  They play an ambitious schedule that could give them problems early...but it could also nudge them to a great seed if they manage it well.

Best Case:

Dyson, Robinson, Walker, and an excellent class ensure that they will be a good team.  If all of the steps in the scenario I painted above fall into place, they will be an elite team.  It's hard to imagine them beating Duke, Kentucky, Michigan, AND Texas in the same season...but three of four is a real possibility.  If they win the rest of their nonleague games, well, that's just doing what they're supposed to.  That would be a collective 12-1 with three excellent wins without even considering league play.  They have a very tough slate of repeat opponents, but 4-2 or 5-1 is still believable.  It's not even beyond the realm of believability to see them go undefeated at home.  If they do that and win the road games they're supposed to, the Big East record could be as good as 15-3 or even 16-2, and that might be good enough for a conference title.  If the ball bounces right they could add a conference tournament championship as well (for a top four seed that's just three wins).  The final record there might just be 31-3 Overall, which could mean a one or two seed.

Worst Case:

If none of my scenario of filing the gaps works out, they will still be a good team.  It's hard to imagine them losing too many out of conference games, but the schedule is tough enough that 9-4 isn't totally out there.  Cincinnati and Louisville are good enough to beat them three out of four times collectively and Notre Dame might grab one behind Harangody.  At home even their worst ptobably only adds two losses on top of that.  The road schedule holds three more teams they're almost certain to beat, and there's probably another win there in them regardless.  That would leave them at 19-12, 10-8 overall and around seventh place or so.  That probably still gets them on the right side fo the bubble unless they really get embarrassed in the Garden.

My Best Guess:

25-6 Overall, 14-4 Big East (3rd place) plus perhaps a Big East championship game loss.  I'm betting on them to lose to Duke and Texas but to beat Kentucky as that team learns to play together.  There's probably a Sweet Sixteen at the very least in their future.




UConn logo from freewebs.com
Jim Calhoun image from advance.UConn.edu
Stanley Robinson image from admissions.UConn.edu
NIT logo from yalebulldogs.com
Hasheem Thabeet image from dailyradar.com