Marquette Golden Eagles Basketball Preview

In one year as head coach, Buzz Williams has already put together a fantastic season and a decent NCAA Tournament showing, dealt with adversity, brought in some excellent recruits, and built a foundation to remain competitive.  Departures and an early injury suggest that he's in for a step back this season, and will earn his paycheck this time out.  An intriguing group of transfers and freshmen will keep them out of the absolute basement, but the production of Dominic James, Wes Matthews, and Jerel McNeal will be difficult to replace right away, especially without the help of Junior Cadougan - a freshman expected to run the point before his season ended in practice.  They've also lost a less touted big man - Brett Roseboro - who was released from his scholarship for reasons I'm unsure of.  How far will the dive be?  How quickly will they pick it back up?  The answers to both will depend on how quickly the newcomers can play as a unit.  Even as freshmen they will probably beat some very talented teams and in one, perhaps two, seasons Williams should have a group capable of something special.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Buzz Williams, 2nd season

'08-'09 Results:
25-10 Overall, 13-7 Big East
NCAA Tournament second round (6 seed)

Departing Players:
F Dwight Burke
G Dominic James
G Wesley Matthews
C Liam McMorrow
G Jerel McNeal

Returning Players:
G Maurice Acker (Sr.)
G David Cubillan (Sr.)
F Lazar Hayward (Sr.)
G-F Jimmy Butler (Jr.)
G Robert Frozena (Jr.)
F Joseph Fulce (Jr.)
C Chris Otule (So.)

Newcomers:
G Dwight Buycks (JUCO)
G Darius Johnson-Odom (JUCO)
PG Junior Cadougan (out for season)
PF Jeronne Maymon
C Youssoupha Mbao
SF Erik Williams

(Full Roster)


Nonconference Slate:  Centenary, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Grambling, South Dakota, @ Xavier, North Carolina State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, @ Wisconsin, North Florida, Presbyterian

Big East home-and-home:  Villanova, DePaul, Providence

Big East Home Opponents:  Georgetown, Rutgers, South Florida, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame

Big East Road Opponents:  West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut, Cincinnati, St. John's, Seton Hall

Old Spice Classic:  Marquette opens this tournament against Xavier; their second opponent will be Creighton or Michigan in the winners' or losers' bracket.  They will also play a third game against Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, or host Iona.


Coaches' Pick:  12th, Big East


Outlook


The Skinny:

The Golden Eagles will almost certainly be led by senior forward Lazar Hayward.  No other returning player averaged as many as six points, and of those players only Jimmy Butler really capitalized on his minutes.  There is a significant amount of incoming talent, but the premature loss of Cadougan (probably the best of the bunch) is going to be felt.  Hayward will probably average something like 19 and 10.  The duo of JUCO transfers were both selected as first team All-Americans in NJCAA, so it's a safe bet that they will produce in the NCAA as well.  Erik Williams, Jeronne Maymon, and Youssoupha Mbao will probably mature into solid players, and how fast that happens will be something worth following.  If they hit their stride right away they could still finish in the top half of the conference...but the more likely scenario has them taking their lumps this year only to completely surprise those who don't pay attention next.

Best Case:

If Hayward is dominant to his fullest potential, he will still need help to take this team anywhere in his senior season.  Some of that help will come in the form of Buycks and Johnson-Odom; if they don't miss a beat the trio will be formidable.  If Maurice Acker, Jimmy Butler, or David Cubillan can elevate the level of play, it would go a long way toward easing the transition from Tom Crean's players to Williams's.  Added strong play from each of the freshmen could make this team much better than expected.  A particularly strong showing in the Old Spice Classic is probably too much to expect, but their best effort could net them third place, which would still be likely to carry them to league play at 10-2.  Sweeps of both DePaul and Providence are not out of the question, but Villanova should be too much for them.  The home schedule offers two more excellent chances for wins, and knocking off an unexpected opponent on their court is almost a given.  A glance at the six remaining road opponents, however, looks very difficult and more than two wins is probably a stretch.  If we're keeping score, that would get them to 19-11, 9-9 and firmly on the bubble.  The Big East tournament would give them the opportunity to make or break their case.

Worst Case:

Unfortunately, Hayward is the only sure thing.  The transfers will probably give good minutes, but if they aren't great minutes it will put quite a burden on the freshman class.  It's not hard to imagine the other returning players as ineffective...and if that is the case leadership may be too much to add to Hayward's plate.  That could spell big problems.  Every team in the Old Spice Classic is capable of putting together the game to beat them, and it would be easy to come out of that tournment 0-3 with little confidence and fall to NC State.  A loss at Wisconsin is likely, and this would result in a 7-5 nonleague mark.  The wrong bounces could leave them 1-5 in their home-and-homes, and they could lose every road game in the league.  Their home schedule toughens up late, and on that kind of season it might be tough to get up to beat Pitt, Louisville, or the Irish.  A 3 or 4 win season in the Big East could be ahead if things begin to spiral on them.

My Best Guess:
15-15 Overall, 6-12 Big East (12th place), plus a loss to a hungry South Florida team in the Big East Tournament if the standings match my projection.  Don't worry though, Marquette fans - there's a great class incoming and another taking shape behind it.



Marquette logo from campofchamps.com
Buzz Williams photo from SI.com
Lazar Hayward photo from msnbc.com
Old Spice Classic logo from infinitotravel.net
NJCAA logo from potomacstatecollege.edu