Notre Dame Fighting Irish Basketball Preview

With Notre Dame opening this afternoon against North Florida, there are some expectations in South Bend.  Luke Harangody returned for his fourth year, and he is expected to put up gaudy numbers and win Big East Player of the Year.  The fans expect their team to shake off a disappointing season and ride Harangody's production to an NCAA Tournament.  To do so, they will need to find replacement production for Ryan Ayers and Kyle McAlarney.  The question that many are asking is:  If Harangody's dominance wasn't enough to make the dance with the help of shooters like McAlarney and ayers, will it be enough without them?  Tory Jackson, Ben Hansbrough, and Scott Martin would like to say yes but it remains to be seen if they can replace what's been lost.  The freshman class has a few players who may be able to help up front but no studs and only one guard.  The loss of Junior shooting guard Scott Martin to injury will not help the team's depth. Coach Mike Brey has two Big East Coach of the Year awards and 300 wins to his name, so it may be a mistake to underestimate this team even if Harangody is the only name you recognize.  Last year's NIT season was certainly an underachievement given the talent, but a trip to the NCAA Tournament this season may take a small amount of overachieving.



Team Info

Head Coach:
Mike Brey, 10th season

'08-'09 Results:
21-15 Overall, 9-11 Big East
NIT semifinals (2 Seed)

Departing Players:
G Ryan Ayers
F Zach Hillesland
G Kyle McAlarney
F-C Luke Zeller

Returning Players:
F Tim Andree (Sr.)
C Luke Harangody (Sr.)
PG Tory Jackson (Sr.)
G Jonathan Peoples (Sr.)
F Tim Abromaitis (Jr.)
G Tom Kopko (Jr.)
G Tyrone Nash (Jr.)
SG Scott Martin (Jr.)  out with injury
F Carleton Scott (Jr.)

Newcomers:
SG Ben Hansbrough (transfer, Mississippi State)
PF Mike Broghammer
SG Joey Brooks
C Jack Cooley
C Tom Knight

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  North Florida, St. Francis (Pa), Long Beach State, Liberty, Kennesaw State, Northwestern, Idaho State, Central Florida, IUPUI, Loyola-Marymount, UCLA, Bucknell

Big East home-and-home:  Connecticut, South Florida, Cincinnati

Big East Home Opponents: Providence, West Virginia, Syracuse, DePaul, St. John's, Pittsburgh

Big East Road Opponents: Villanova, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette

Chicago Invitational:  Notre Dame will host Liberty and Kennesaw State, then travel to a predetermined semifinal match against Northwestern.  Win or lose, they will play a fourth game against either Iowa State or St. Louis.

Coaches' Pick:  8th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

Luke Harangody really will put up monster numbers, and is a sure thing for Big East Player of the Year if he doesn't get hurt.  Why?  Because the league isn't as strong up front around him.  Because he's the reigning player of the year.  And because he will need to do more to help his team win games; there is simply less talent around him.  Tory Jackson and Ben Hansbrough are a pretty good backcourt duo.  But they aren't McAlarney and Ayers.  The two players from last year's team who logged the most minutes alongside Harangody up front are also gone.  Their numbers were nothing special, but there's no reason to believe that their replacements (Tim Andree, Tim Abromaitis, and Carleton Scott) will do any better.  The freshman clas is decent but doesn't appear to have any surefire immediate contributors.  Now, saying that this year's team is less talented than last year's is not the same as sayign it is untalented.  The tri of Harangody, Hansbrough, Jackson is very good, and there are some decent roleplayers as well (Tyrone Nash and the freshmen).  But there isn't a lot of depth and there are a lot of teams with at least as much talent in the conference.  They do protect the basketball very well and make their free throws, so they do stand a good chance in any close games.

Best Case:

'Gody might just average something like 28 and 15.  Hansbrough and Jackson will provide some support from the back lines, and that alone should be enough to win them some games.  If Mike Broghmmer can develop a game to help up front, and if Jonathan Peoples, Tyrone Nash, or Joey Brooks can step up off the bench then this team may win more games than I think they will.  They are certainly capable of winning the Chicago Invitational and rolling through the noncon with just one loss.  Heck, since UCLA flies east and is a little bit down, they could run that slate undefeated.  Breaking the Big East into three groups, they could go 4-2 home-and-home, 6-0 home opponents (they protect their floor well), and 3-3 Road Opponents.  If they do that (to the tune of a 26-5, 13-5 record) they'll finish in the top 5 or 6 and have no problem meeting their NCAA Tournament goal.

Worst Case:

If Harangody doesn't improve on his already outstanding numbers, if no one unexpected steps up, and if the freshmen take a lot of time to really contribute they could easily miss the dance again.  They could lose to Northwestern and to UCLA, and perhaps lay an egg in an "easy" game as well.  2-4 is probably the worst they'll do in the home-and homes with South Florida in the mix...but they could lose four more at home and four more on the road.  That would land them at 6-12 Big East and somewhere in the double digits in the standings.

My Best Guess:  19-12 Overall, 7-11 Big East (11th place) and needing to do damage in the Garden to make the dance.  Someone has to finish eleventh out of eleven good teams, and the Irish are my pick.  They could prove me very wrong.