South Florida Bulls Basketball Preview

Since joining the Big East in '05-'06, South Florida has never finished above 14th place, never won more than four games, and never won a league tournament game (last year was the first in which teams 13th or lower participated).  So, it is a modest statement to say that this may be South Florida's best year since joining the Big East.  The bottom of the league has weakened around them: DePaul loses Dar Tucker, Rutgers loses Anthony Farmer and JR Inman, Providence loses an entire roster, and Marquette joins the ranks of those likely to finish low in the standings after several departures.  This all happens while they have perhaps the best roster since the merger.  The only departure of real significance was Jesus Verdejo, and they bring in a JUCO transfer (Jarrid Famous) who may be capable of replacing those numbers immediately. Yet, there are still ten or eleven Big East teams entering the year with rosters that appear superior on paper.  Improvement on last year's best in-conference effort is certainly an achievable goal, but expecting more than a couple games or spots in the standings is perhaps too ambitious.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Stan Heath, 3rd season

'08-'09 Results:
9-22 Overall, 4-15 Big East
no postseason

Departing Players:
G Gaby Belardo
F Eladio Espinosa
F Ajayi Mobolaji
G Jesus Verdejo
F Aris Williams

Returning Players:*

G Chris Howard (Sr.)

G Ryan Kardok (Sr.)

G Mike Mercer (Sr.)

C Alex Rivas (Sr.)

F Ron Anderson (Jr.)

G Dominique Jones (Jr.)

G Anthony Crater (So.)

G BJ Daniels (So.)

F-C Augustus Gilchrist (So.)

G Justin Leemow (So.)

Newcomers:
F-C Jarrid Famous (JUCO)
G Mike Burwell
G Jordan Dumars
F Toralyn Fitzpatrick
G Shaun Noriega

(Full Roster)

*Note:  F Mitch Emory appears as a walk-on on some sites, but the team site does not list him on the '08-'09 or '09-'10 rosters.

Nonconference Slate:  @ Southern Methodist, Davidson, Kent State, Florida Atlantic, Hampton, Central Michigan, Central Florida, @ San Francisco, @ San Diego

Big East home-and-home:  Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Providence

Big East Home Opponents: West Virginia, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Connecticut


Big East Road Opponents:  Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, DePaul

Charleston Classic:  @ Davidson is the opening round of this tournament.  South Florida will then face either LaSalle or South Carolina in the winners' or losers bracket.  They will also play a third game against Tulane, Miami, UNC-Wilmington, or Penn State.  All eight participants will be placed.

Coaches' Pick: 14th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

Dominique Jones, Mike Mercer, Augustus Gilchrist, and Jarrid Famous provide a talented group of starters.  They're the reason I think this might be the Bulls' best roster and why they have a good chance to post their best Big East finish.  But there are concerns about depth, and in order for the team to deliver on that ambition someone else will have to give them better minutes.  Chris Howard, Alex Rivas, and Ron Anderson are good candidates but have yet to post great numbers.  Toralyn Fitzpatrick is worth keeping an eye on, as well.  The play of that second foursome could be the difference between a fade to last place and continued improvement.  I worry the most about rebounding.  They have players capable of scoring, but their best returning rebounder was a guard (Jones) with 5.6 per game.  That will absolutely have to improve to keep afloat in a league that makes you pay for giving second chances.

Best Case:

It will seem inconsistent that the best case for teams I have behind the Bulls are better than this one - but it is more a product of comparing schedules.  If the four guys I expect to be solid deliver and the others step up, they could show very well before league play starts.  Virginia is beatable, and I believe they are capable of beating Davidson to open the Charleston Classic.  Even their best probably gets them a loss to South Carolina, but they could go 2-1 to finish fifth.  They are probably bound to lose one of their two west coast games due to travel, but a nine or ten win nonconfernce performance is believable.  It gets hairy after that.  I see them at most winning one of the four games against Notre Dame and Cincinnati.  They might sweep Providence but it's tough to count on.  I only see two more winnable road games, and one "sure thing" at home (Rutgers).  They could knock off maybe two superior teams as well.  So, that runs their record to 17-13, 7-11.  They could get their first win in the Big East tournament as well and cross their fingers on an NIT invite.

Worst Case:

As much as I like their chances to improve, the wheels could come off.  If no one steps up behind their four most talented players it could be very difficult for those guys to carry the load.  If that happens, they could wind up in seventh or eighth place in the Charleston Classic, lose five or so more nonleague games and limp into conference play at 4-8.  A last place finish in the league, with a record of 2-16 or 3-15 could easily follow, along with another immediate dismissal from the Garden.  That kind of season would raise some real questions about Stan Heath's job, but it wouldn't be entirely surprising.

My Best Guess:
13-17 Overall, 6-12 Big East (13th place) plus a round one win in the Big East tournament.  There still won't be a postseason, but they will have their best Big East season to date (marginally).