Louisville Cardinals Basketball Preview

It's been a pleasure doing this series of previews, but I have to admit that I am relieved to be posting the sixteenth and final entry.  Louisville tips off tonight at 7:30 and sometime before then I will be done.  I'll be taking tomorrow off to regroup but will be back on Thursday with something a little different.

Louisville under coach Rick Pitino is one of those rare programs that can lose a duo like Terrance Williams and Earl Clark and still be ranked in preseason polls.  Every media outlet seems to be giving them love, and their roster shows why.  Their roster also shows why there is an apparent line between them and the three top contenders for the Big East crown, however.  Contending with those three isn't out of the question, but it will take some development from a few key players and a smooth transition for a couple of talented freshmen.  They are fairly close to a lock for the NCAA Tournament, although their ultimate ceiling is something of an unknown.  They return only one player (Samardo Samuels) who averaged double figures last year, but Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, Preston Knowles, and Terrence Jennings all averaged better than .350 in points per minute, and that projects well.  The team will need Sosa to be more consistent if they want to repeat as league champs. A lot of folks seem to have lost track of the fact that they won both league titles last year, and while they don't look poised to accomplish quite that much this year, it should be a warning sign to take them seriously.  A question that needs to be asked is if Pitino will be the same coach after the controversy of a few weeks ago.  I think he will, but the concern is out there.





Team Info

Head Coach:
Rick Pitino, 9th season


'08-'09 Results:
31-6 Overall, 18-3 Big East
Elite Eight (1 seed)


Departing Players:
G-F Earl Clark
G Andre McGee
G Will Scott
F Lee Steiden
F Terrance Williams

Returning Players:
G Chris Brickley (Sr.)
G Reginald Delk (Sr.)
G Jerry Smith (Sr.)
G Edgar Sosa (Sr.)
G Preston Knowles (Jr.)
F George Goode (So.)
F Terrence Jennings (So.)
G Kyle Kuric (So.)
F Samardo Samuels (So.)
F Jared Swopshire (So.)


Newcomers:
PF Rakeem Buckles
SG Mike Marra
PF Richie Phares
PG Peyton Siva
F Stephen Van Treese


(Full Roster)


Nonconference Slate:  Arkansas, East Tennessee State, Morgan State, Appalachian State, @ UNLV, Stetson, Charlotte, Western Carolina, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette, Radford, @ Kentucky


Big East home-and-home:  Connecticut, St. John's, Syracuse


Big East Home Opponents:  South Florida, Villanova, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Big East Road Opponents:  Providence, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, West Virginia, DePaul, Marquette


Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase:  Oddly, Louisville plays the "semifinal match against Arkansas first and then faces its next three opponents also as part of this event.  They will also play either Memphis or Kansas.


Coaches' Pick:  4th, Big East




Outlook


The Skinny:


Up front, this team has one very talented player in Samardo Samuels.  He will almost certainly be a leader and improve on his 11.8 point/4.9 rebound stats from last year.  Terrence Jennings looks capable of stepping up to provide a lot of help up there as well, but questions begin after that.  Can Jared Swopshire or George Goode step up to shore up the depth?  If not, The team may turn to freshmen Rakeem Buckles or Peyton Siva.  Buckles is probably the most talented of the four, and could make any questions of big-man depth go away early, but how quickly will he progress?  The backcourt is a little deeper but doesn't have a stud like Samuels at the head.  Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, and Preston Knowles are all solid and Kyle Kuric played some effective although limited minutes last year.  Freshmen Peyton Siva and Mike MArra figure to get some playing time as well, and may not be a major step down fromt he starters once the season progresses.  We know this team has a good bit of talent and a great coach; what we don't know yet is how deep they will be.  What they get from their bench will determine whether they contend for a league title, finish 4th or 5th, or land on the NCAA Tournament bubble.


Best Case:


As great as this team was last year, and as great as their head coach is, I don't think they are capable of recapturing both Big East crowns.  But they could come close by finishing in the top four and earning those double byes in the Big East Tournament.  That would put them in a great position to defend one of the titles.  What will it take for them to get there?  For one, the development of Samuels' game; he was a great freshman and if he is a great sophomore it will go a long way.  They'll need their talented second line to make full use of their abilities.  The play of Swopshire, Kuric, Reginald Delk, and the freshman class could make all the difference.  With some pretty tough opponents and needing their freshmen to play big minutes, I think 13-1 is their best ooc mark.  They could see 5-1 in their home-and-home games, 5-1 in against the teams they host, and 4-2 in the Big East arenas they'll invade.  27-5, 14-4 would probably be good for second or third place and a 2 or three seed depending on their play in the Garden.  Wining that tournament would do wonders.


Worst Case:


In short, if none of what I said above happens (pretty unlikely) they could lose as many as five of their fourteen out of conference games.  9-5 wouldn't intimidate too many Big East teams, which could factor slightly into their league record.  As likely as 5-1 in their home-and-homes is 2-4 (because they play three quality teams, but my money's on 3-3 or 4-2).  They shouldn't lose more than two of the remaining six Big East games in Freedom Hall, but they could lose three more on the road.  That would end up, though, in a disappointing 18-13 Overall, 10-8 Big East, probably seventh or eighth place, and on the NCAA Tournament Bubble.  Madison Square Garden could decide their fate there.  As always, keep in mind that this section is NOT a prediction, just an extreme possibility.


My Best Guess:


24-8 Overall, 12-6 Big East (5th place) plus one win at least in the conference tournament.  They should be playing in March and with a pretty good seed, but there are simply four rosters I like better as the season tips off.




Rick Pitino image from totalprosports.com
Cardinals logo from artisicglassdesign.com
Samardo Samuels image from hoopgroup.com
Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase logo from scottradecenter.com