Pittsburgh Panthers Basketball Preview

It's going to be a year of transition for the Pitt Panthers.  They have parted ways with one of the nation's best centers, one of the nation's best wing players, and one of the nation's best passers.  They bring in a top recruiting class headed by Dante Taylor.  The program is one of eight to appear in the last eight NCAA Tournaments (six of those under Jamie Dixon) but that run could be in serious jeopardy with so much talent gone.  Pitt has had successful seasons before with lesser-known players and no big stars...if they want to dance this will have to be another of those seasons.  Among Pitt fans, the outlook seems to be one of cautious optimism.  After Dixon led the United states to an Under-19 Gold Medal, there is reason to believe he can get a new group playing together and playing well quickly.  It's hard to imagine them falling to the basement in the Big East - they've been a model of consistency since Ben Howland resurrected the program at the beginning of the decade - but a top-half finish would have to be considered a success for '09-'10.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jamie Dixon, 7th season

'08-'09 Results:
31-5 Overall, 15-4 Big East
Elite Eight (1 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Tyrell Biggs
C DeJuan Blair
F Sean Brown
PG LeVance Fields
G Ryan Tiesi
F Sam Young

Returning Players:
SG Jermaine Dixon (Sr.) out first two weeks
G-F Gilbert Brown (Jr.) academically ineligible 1st semester
G Tim Frye (Jr.)
C Gary McGhee (Jr.)
G Brad Wanamaker (Jr.)
G Ashton Gibbs (So.)
F Nasir Robinson (So.)

Newcomers:
G Chase Adams (transfer, Centenary)
F Dwight Miller (RS)
PG Travon Woodall (RS)
SF Lamar Patterson
C JJ Richardson
G Nick Rivers
PF Dante Taylor
C Talib Zanna

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Wofford, Binghamton, Eastern Kentucky, Wichita State, Youngstown State, @ Duquesne, New Hampshire, @ Indiana, Kent State, Mount St. Mary's, Ohio, Robert Morris


Big East home-and-home:  Seton Hall, St. John's, West Virginia


Big East Home Opponents:  Louisville, Georgetown, DePaul, Villanova, Providence, Rutgers


Big East Road Opponents:  Syracuse, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame

CBE Classic:  Pitt is a regional host in this tournament, and will advance to the semifinal game against Wichita State regardless of the outcome vs. Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky.  Their final opponent here will be either Texas or Iowa in the championship or consolation game.


Coaches' Pick: 9th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:


Dante Taylor, Lamar Patterson, and Talib Zanna form the backbone of an excellent recruiting class.  The talent here is concentrated in the newcomers, though, which is a dangerous combination when trying to make an NCAA Tournament from a BCS-affiliated league.  This is even more true with Gilbert Brown out until at least January and Jermaine Dixon out for a couple of weeks.  There is more help than most realize on the way, though.  Red-shirt freshman Travon Woodall is coming along nicely at the point and his counterpart Dwight Miller looks solid as well.  Chase Adams transfers in from Centenary, where he averaged 14.6 points, 4.2 boards and 4.5 assists; he is eligible immediately.  Ashton Gibbs is only a sophomore, but is perhaps the best pure shooter Pitt has had this decade.  A lot will ride on whether Gary McGhee, Brad Wanamaker, and Nasir Robinson can give solid minutes as the youngsters learn the ropes.  So a good run is certainly possible and it's something Pitt has done before.  But they also have never had to replace so much talent at once during their recent run of successes.  I anticipate their home-and-home slate will be a major key to their success.  Seton Hall and St. John's are both trying to make their NCAA run this year (and are, consequently, the teams I have immediately behind and in front of Pitt in my projection) and West Virginia will be a tough opponent for anyone.  The nonconference slate is weak aside from a possible game against Texas so expect those six games to make or break the Panthers' run.

Best Case:

Pitt is a program that prides itself on player development.  If that happens with the returning players, it will go a long way toward ensuring success.  An NCAA Tournament season is very possible if the learning curve for the incoming talent is small.  The nonconference schedule is weak enough that even with growing pains a 12-1 mark is believable, with a loss to Texas as the only near-certain blemish.  Pitt has shown since the Petersen Events Center opened that they are capable of beating any team there; still, this team is almost guaranteed to lose a couple of games it shouldn't because of the youth.  Three of four against St. John's and Seton Hall and a split with the Mountaineers is possible and would go a long way.  In the remaining games 4-2 home and 3-3 away is probably the best that can be expected.  Still, that kind of year would be NCAA Tournament-worthy at 23-8, 11-7 with some Big East Tournament games to help with seeding.  Sixth place in the league is probably the ceiling.

Worst Case:

As a Pitt alum, this part is painful to type, but this possibility must be conceded even by the most optimistic followers.  If the returning guys can't improve the quality of their minutes, and if the young players take some time to adjust, a much worse finish is probably imminent.  Luckily there are few games out of conference that look difficult, so 10-3 or 9-4 is probably the worst to come even if they struggle.  Once league play begins, however, it is a different matter.  Gibbs, Taylor, Adams and company will probably win them a game or two they shouldn't.  Even so, a 1-5 mark in the home-and-homes is not out of the question.  There are five league teams the Panthers will probably not lose to, but the remaining seven games are all tough.  Something on the order of 7-11 in conference is a very real possibility, and that could slide them as low as 11th or 12th place.  They have a history of (mostly) playing well in the Garden, so they would probably add at least one win there.  That might not even be good enough for the NIT to come calling.

My Best Guess:

20-11 Overall, 9-9 Big East (9th place) plus two wins in the Big East tournament.  A very bubble-icious finish that I think lands them in the NIT.  This is probably about right on paper, even if I do  think they are capable of a little more.


Departing players, Ashton Gibbs, and Jamie Dixon images from post-gazette.com
Panther logo from chronicle.pitt.edu