Mega-Conference Mayhem? Part II

Basketball (The Spare Parts)

I love college basketball, so calling it "the spare parts" hurts. That's how it'll be treated, though, so to be honest in my process I have to approach it that way. I am going to try to treat basketball as thoroughly as I did football, but close to 350 teams is a lot. It is worth some effort, though, to establish what might happen to the Big East's basketball-only members once the football schools vanish...and what the fallout from all of this might be.

As with yesterday's football section, please understand that there is a lot of "what I'd like to see happen" and very little of "what I predict will happen." Since I'm 99% sure that the ideal football scenarios I described won't even approximate reality, we'll never know if the basketball side would turn out my way or not.


Step One - The Big East Survives (Really?):

I admit that this may be the least realistic part of my scenario. I am a huge fan of Big East basketball, and so my thinking on this is likely as tinged with bias as any topic save my own alma mater. I have heard the argument that without the football revenue, the Big East could not exist. That makes sense, except that there are a whole boatload of Basketball-only conferences. The Big East has a leg up on them in that it already has capital from football sources.

Taking just the seven basketball-only members (excluding Notre Dame) there is a lot of basketball tradition - and a pretty good start to a conference in its own right. DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova...every name either has a history of greatness that could be revived with the right leadership (DePaul, St. John's, etc.) or is currently enjoying a period of greatness (Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova). The "Big East" label, and that core group, should be enough to entice some of the more prestigious "mid-major" teams to join up. Some of the ideal teams - Memphis and Temple and perhaps East Carolina and UCF - have already been swallowed up in the football pandemonium. That still leaves some great programs ripe for the picking and probably antsy for a move, though.

Dayton and Xavier are obvious choices from the A-10. Given that the Big East has established a precedent of not caring about geography, Butler springs to mind as another clear choice, not to mention a knee-jerk favorite. At that point it gets a little dicier. UAB and Kent State would be quality additions, but how committed would they be to their new football homes? Does the Big East dig further into the A-10, scavenge the leftovers from CUSA, or try to grab some of the more respected programs from the less recognized leagues in the East? I don't see them expanding into Texas for UTEP or Houston. A partial solution could be UMass for their history and St. Joseph's for the Big Five matchup with Villanova. I'd round that out with George Mason and VCU. The final two spots, failing UAB and Kent State, could be given to George Washington and someone else..Charlotte? Rhode Island? Vermont? Duquesne? It's kind of a crap shoot.  Call it Duquesne to make two even divisions.

East
Georgetown
George Mason
George Washington
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
VCU
UMass

West
Butler
Dayton
DePaul
Duquesne
Marquette
St. Joseph's
Xavier
Villanova

It's not perfect.  It isn't nearly the powerhouse it once was, and it would take time for it to be as competitive in basketball as the five neo-BCS Goliaths...but I think that's about the best large conference that could be assembled with the remaining teams.  It's riddled with programs with potential and histories of greatness.


Step Two - Finding a home for the A-10 Stragglers:

At this point, the remaining Atlantic Ten teams would be at something of a loss. Here's what that conference would temporarily look like:

Charlotte
Fordham
La Salle
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure

Not much of a conference. Fortunately for those schools, most of them have what seem like obvious new homes. The New England-heavy America East would be a wonderful place for URI and the New York schools (Fordham and St. Bonaventure). La Salle isn't a perfect fit, but they would likely be welcome as well. Then, what better place for a school in the former Confederate capital and a North Carolina school than the Big South? St. Louis is a bit of a poser.  They would fit well geographically, of course, in the Missouri Valley Conference. But would the MVC welcome them?  In a period of such conference turmoil I would lean toward yes. If not, the Atlantic Sun would be a real possibility.


Step Three - Fighting for the Patriot League:

With this conference down to 6 teams, and two of its identifying programs gone for greener pastures, the conventional wisdom would be that this conference would fold. I think, though, that a more radical solution would be in order. The brass of the league might propose a merger with the Colonial. Further, to replace Army and Navy in the "patriotic" category I believe they would invite VMI and Citadel. The league would remain thematically appropriate, and swell to the size that the conferences are all tending toward.  This would form a modern Patriot league of:

American
Bucknell
Citadel
Colgate
Delaware
Drexel
Hofstra
Holy Cross
James Madison
Lafayette
Lehigh
Northeastern
Old Dominion
Towson
VMI
William and Mary

You'll note that Georgia State and UNC-Wilmington are out of the mix; this is primarily because I don't think the Patriot would want 18 teams, and the 16 programs above seem like the best fits, both thematically and geographically.


Step Four - The Missouri Valley Exerts Some Force:

The Valley has the reputation that at this point in such a wild scenario, any remaining school they invited wouldn't hesitate. The question, then, becomes: who would they invite? St. Louis seems like an obvious first choice, as mentioned above. After the Billikens, there are a number of directions they could go. Their most crucial decision it how committed they are to their regional identity versus the quality of the programs they're willing to accept. I don't see them expanding beyond the six states already occupied; neither do I see them inviting a program they evaluate and find wanting. There are eleven schools up for grabs in those states: SIU-Edwardsville, Southeast Missouri State, Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, UMKC, Loyola (IL), Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso, IPFW, IUPUI, and Chicago State.

If they want to get to sixteen schools, it would be possible for them to do so without expanding the region that their current schools belong to by so much as a mile. To to accomplish this they would need to take, in addition to St. Louis: Edwardsville, Southeast Missouri St., Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, and UMKC. However, I don't see them making as dubious a move as bringing in a branch campus of a regional school that's already a league member. Eliminating that school from consideration would mean the league would have to expand geographically as well as in number, so from that decision forward all schools would have to be considered on an even playing field.

The next move to eliminate would be a dip into the brand new Great West Conference for Chicago State.  Beyond that, I won't pretend to have any insight into the relative strengths of the programs, and admit that my choices here are somewhat arbitrary. I'll posit a 16-team MVC that looks like this:

Bradley
Creighton
Drake
Eastern Illinois
Evansville
Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Saint Louis
Southeast Missouri State
Southern Illinois
UMKC
Valparaiso
Western Illinois
Wichita State

That alignment doesn't necessarily make the MVC any better, but it does keep them up to speed with regard to the number of revenue sources they can tap.  I see them as somewhat unique in not really desiring to branch out into new TV markets, because their regional identity is strong.


Step Five - Cleanup:


The remaining conferences would certainly be trying to attain a larger size (except for the Ivy League) to meet with the new conventional setting. The more prestigious leagues are more or less aligned at this point, so I don't think there would be a lot of hesitation in swallowing up the independents, Great West teams, and the leftovers from the Colonial and Sun Belt.

Perhaps the "duh" move in all this is Cal State Bakersfield to the all-California Big West. Chicago State to the Horizon is also something that fits well without much thought. The Big Sky would probably like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Denver...and those programs would more than likely fall in line. Utah Valley State would likely come along for the ride. The MAAC and NJIT would probably be a good fit. The Southland and SWAC would likely jockey for the remaining three Sun Belt Schools; I have a slight preference for New Orleans in the SWAC with Arkansas Little Rock and South Alabama joining the Southland. The SWAC, feeling pressure to keep pace with its local rival, might then be maneuvered into inviting Houston Baptist and Texas-Pan American. The Southern Conference probably has more drawing power than the MEAC, so Savannah State, North Carolina Central, Winston-Salem, Georgia State, and UNC-Wilmington will probably find their new homes there. The MEAC could probably land Longwood, though - not that that would make them feel much better. Seattle to the West Coast Conference would leave SIU-Edwardsville as the lone homeless program (for now). Even as I type this sentence, I've not yet decided what to do with them.


Step Six - Dissolution and Consolidation:



First, there are two conferences that would stand little chance of surviving all of this: The Ohio Valley and the Summit. Their teams would need new homes. The Tennessee schools (this includes Austin Peay, remember) and Jacksonville State would round out the Atlantic Sun nicely. The Horizon could swallow up IUPUI, IPFW, and Oakland with minimal effort. The Kentucky schools (E Kentucky, Morehead State, and Murray State) to a slightly desperate Big South would be a high probability move.

Here's where I need to apply the breaks. I have been setting up some conferences that I don't think will really continue to exist. All of this is, after all, a more fluid process than the series of steps I'm describing. As such, the Big West, Big Sky, and MAAC as they would "exist" at this point in my intellectual exercise are mere placeholders. I don't believe that they have the strength to all survive in anything approximating their present forms, even as they try to make overtures to new schools. In the case of the MAAC it's two few quality programs and too many conferences in the area. For the other two, it's the West Coast Conference and its pair of heavyweights throwing every piece of effort they can into keeping up with the Joneses.

Gonzaga, and to a lesser extent St. Mary's, are a pair of great programs that thus far have been getting the shaft. Sadly, this is one of the few pieces of my little scenario that I see as a near inevitability. Under this kind of pressure, the East Coast schools that get left out WILL try to consolidate to form another basketball-only superconference, or at least another MVC. Gonzaga and the few other programs of real quality out west not already in a BCS league will want to make a counter move, but there simply aren't enough schools with enough basketball tradition and/or present firepower to make that happen. In the absence of that, the West Coast Conference, under pressure from its two most recognized names, will try to invite every good program it can get. This would start with, I believe, Pacific, Sacramento State, and Portland State. Any program beyond those three would probably water down the average quality of WCC teams, but I don't see that league being satisfied with twelve members in a world of behemoth associations. Weber State, Northern Arizona, and Northridge are probably the next three best. I would guess the WCC's aggression would end there.

What we're left with is a group of 21 teams (not counting Centenary, who is way off in the East) and two half-alive conferences (see also: a big mess). The Horizon league would probably gracefully accept Oral Roberts to expand their viewing area, dropping the number to an equally unmanageable 20. If the WCC extends an olive branch to, say, Long Beach State, we've chipped it down to 19. For now, just for the sake of argument, let's say that the remaining Big Sky, Big West, and Summit teams amalgamate into an unprecedented, 19-team "Great Western Sky." This is partly for convenience, because frankly some of these teams - remember, I added some independents and Great West members earlier - will probably not survive as D-IA Programs. Edwardsville is now joined for now by another homeless in Centenary.

This brings us very near to the end of the madness. The MAAC, at 11 teams counting NJIT, just doesn't have many programs of significant quality to hold it together 4 or 5 teams short of the new standard league size. The first step in its demise would probably be Fairfield to the America East; my second confidence pick would be Loyola (MD) to the MEAC.  Ideally, the nine schools that are left (all of them in New York) would be split to bring each of the following leagues -  the MEAC, the America East, and the Northeast - to sixteen teams apiece.  I'll call it this way: Siena and Niagara to the America East; Marist, Rider, and Manhattan to the MEAC; and Iona, Canisius, St. Peter's, and NJIT to the NEC.

This leaves just two small pieces of business: finding a home for poor, forgotten, SIU Edwardsville and Centenary. Glancing across a page with all of the new conferences laid out, each has a fitting home should the conference make the offer. The Horizon League would reach a respectable fourteen team mark with Edwardsville; The SWAC would get there by inviting Centenary. Both schools fit with those leagues regionally and would slide into several natural rivalries. Heck, some of those rivalries might already exist...I'm not well-versed enough in mid-major basketball to know.


Wrap-Up of the Basketball Landscape:

What on Earth is the result of all that I mentioned above and in the previous post? We're left with twenty-three basketball leagues ranging in size from eight to nineteen teams. The vest majority of these leagues, though, are either fourteen or sixteen teams strong. You may have noticed that I've said next to nothing about the Ivy League. That's because, for the purposes of expansion and realignment they can be considered not to exist. They aren't accepting anyone new. They aren't kicking anyone out. They aren't folding. Since they have different rules for the postseason anyway, they don't matter as the low outlier in conference size. The Great Western Sky, on the other end of the spectrum, doesn't matter as an outlier because they have several programs which could easily slide out of Division 1-A in five or fewer years.

Below I'll list the conferences and their members that have not yet appeared either yesterday or today. Those I have already included are, in alphabetical order: ACC, Big 14, Big East, Bigger Ten, Gulf Coast Area Conference, Missouri Conference, New MAC, Patriot, PCC, SEC, and WAC/MWC. The Ivy League is excluded below because it experienced no changes.
 

America East	Atlantic Sun	Big South	Great Western Sky
Albany	Austin Peay	Charleston Southern	Cal Poly
Binghamton	Belmont	Charlotte	Cal State Bakersfield
Boston University	Campbell	Coastal Carolina	Cal State Fullerton
Fairfield	East Tennessee State	Eastern Kentucky	Denver
Fordham	Florida Gulf Coast	Gardner-Webb	Eastern Washington
Hartford	Jacksonvile	High Point	Idaho State
La Salle	Jacksonville State	Liberty	Montana
Maine	Kennesaw State	Morehead State	Montana State
New Hampshire	Lipscomb	Murray State	North Dakota
Niagara	Mercer	Presbyterian	North Dakota State
Rhode Island	North Florida	Radford	Northern Colorado
Siena	Stetson	Richmond	South Dakota
St. Bonaventure	Tennessee State	Winthrop	South Dakota State
Stony Brook	Tennessee Tech	UNC-Asheville	Southern Utah
UMBC	Tennessee Martin		UC Davis
Vermont	USC Upstate		UC Irvine
			UC Riverside
			UC Santa Barbara
			Utah Valley State

 

Horizon	MEAC	Northeast	SoCon
Chicago State	Bethune-Cookman	Bryant	Appalachian State
Cleveland State	Coppin State	Canisius	Charleston
Detroit	Delaware State	Central Conn St.	Chattanooga
Green Bay	FAMU	Fairleigh Dickinson	Davidson
Illinois Chicago	Hampton	Iona	Elon
IPFW	Howard	Long Island	Furman
IUPUI	Longwood	Monmouth	Georgia Southern
Loyola (IL)	Loyola (MD)	Mount St. Mary's	Georgia State
Milwaukee	Manhattan	NJIT	North Carolina Central
Oakland	Marist	Quinnipiac	Samford
Oral Roberts	Maryland Eastern Shore	Robert Morris	Savannah State
SIU-Edwardsville	Morgan State	Sacred Heart	UNC-Greensboro
Wright State	Norfolk State	St. Francis (NY)	UNC-Wilmington
Youngstown State	North Carolina A&T	St. Francis (PA)	Western Carolina
	Rider	St. Peter's	Winston-Salem
	South Carolina State	Wagner	Wofford

 

Southland	SWAC	West Coast
Arkansas Little Rock	Alabama A&M	Cal State Northridge
Central Arkansas	Alabama State	Gonzaga
Lamar	Alcorn State	Long Beach State
McNeese State	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Loyola Marymount
Nicholls State	Centenary	Northern Arizona
Northwestern State	Grambling State	Pacific
Sam Houston State	Houston Baptist	Pepperdine
South Alabama	Jackson State	Portland
Southeastern Louisiana	Mississippi Valley State	Portland State
Stephen F. Austin	New Orleans	Sacramento State
Texas A&M CC	Prairie View A&M	San Diego
Texas Arlington	Southern	San Francisco
Texas San Antonio	Texas Pan-American	Santa Clara
Texas State	Texas Southern	Seattle
		St. Mary's
		Weber State

Taking the time to glance back at the above, I find that I am satisfied.My only regret to this format would be the failure to establish a western basketball-only league like the new Big East.  This means that just about everyone would be happy with the exceptions of Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and a couple of similar schools.  As with the football scenario, though, there are a number of positive consequences.

1. The new arrangement of teams groups them in ways that make sense geographically, academically, and thematically while also working for the purposes of athletics.
2. All teams are part of a conference.
3. Almost all of the conferences are similar in size, and those that aren't don't need to be.
4. There would only be 23 auto-bids to the new, 68-team NCAA tournament format.  This would virtually ensure that the only "bad" teams in the field would be playing in the play-in games.  Hopefully that would open the door for smaller schools rather than allow sub-.500 power conference teams in.

I hope I've kept a few college sports fans entertained with this intellectual exercise. I would love to see things shake down close to this way, or stop with two moves: Notre Dame to the Big Ten and Memphis to the Big East.

Pittsburgh Panthers Basketball Preview

It's going to be a year of transition for the Pitt Panthers.  They have parted ways with one of the nation's best centers, one of the nation's best wing players, and one of the nation's best passers.  They bring in a top recruiting class headed by Dante Taylor.  The program is one of eight to appear in the last eight NCAA Tournaments (six of those under Jamie Dixon) but that run could be in serious jeopardy with so much talent gone.  Pitt has had successful seasons before with lesser-known players and no big stars...if they want to dance this will have to be another of those seasons.  Among Pitt fans, the outlook seems to be one of cautious optimism.  After Dixon led the United states to an Under-19 Gold Medal, there is reason to believe he can get a new group playing together and playing well quickly.  It's hard to imagine them falling to the basement in the Big East - they've been a model of consistency since Ben Howland resurrected the program at the beginning of the decade - but a top-half finish would have to be considered a success for '09-'10.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jamie Dixon, 7th season

'08-'09 Results:
31-5 Overall, 15-4 Big East
Elite Eight (1 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Tyrell Biggs
C DeJuan Blair
F Sean Brown
PG LeVance Fields
G Ryan Tiesi
F Sam Young

Returning Players:
SG Jermaine Dixon (Sr.) out first two weeks
G-F Gilbert Brown (Jr.) academically ineligible 1st semester
G Tim Frye (Jr.)
C Gary McGhee (Jr.)
G Brad Wanamaker (Jr.)
G Ashton Gibbs (So.)
F Nasir Robinson (So.)

Newcomers:
G Chase Adams (transfer, Centenary)
F Dwight Miller (RS)
PG Travon Woodall (RS)
SF Lamar Patterson
C JJ Richardson
G Nick Rivers
PF Dante Taylor
C Talib Zanna

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Wofford, Binghamton, Eastern Kentucky, Wichita State, Youngstown State, @ Duquesne, New Hampshire, @ Indiana, Kent State, Mount St. Mary's, Ohio, Robert Morris


Big East home-and-home:  Seton Hall, St. John's, West Virginia


Big East Home Opponents:  Louisville, Georgetown, DePaul, Villanova, Providence, Rutgers


Big East Road Opponents:  Syracuse, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame

CBE Classic:  Pitt is a regional host in this tournament, and will advance to the semifinal game against Wichita State regardless of the outcome vs. Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky.  Their final opponent here will be either Texas or Iowa in the championship or consolation game.


Coaches' Pick: 9th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:


Dante Taylor, Lamar Patterson, and Talib Zanna form the backbone of an excellent recruiting class.  The talent here is concentrated in the newcomers, though, which is a dangerous combination when trying to make an NCAA Tournament from a BCS-affiliated league.  This is even more true with Gilbert Brown out until at least January and Jermaine Dixon out for a couple of weeks.  There is more help than most realize on the way, though.  Red-shirt freshman Travon Woodall is coming along nicely at the point and his counterpart Dwight Miller looks solid as well.  Chase Adams transfers in from Centenary, where he averaged 14.6 points, 4.2 boards and 4.5 assists; he is eligible immediately.  Ashton Gibbs is only a sophomore, but is perhaps the best pure shooter Pitt has had this decade.  A lot will ride on whether Gary McGhee, Brad Wanamaker, and Nasir Robinson can give solid minutes as the youngsters learn the ropes.  So a good run is certainly possible and it's something Pitt has done before.  But they also have never had to replace so much talent at once during their recent run of successes.  I anticipate their home-and-home slate will be a major key to their success.  Seton Hall and St. John's are both trying to make their NCAA run this year (and are, consequently, the teams I have immediately behind and in front of Pitt in my projection) and West Virginia will be a tough opponent for anyone.  The nonconference slate is weak aside from a possible game against Texas so expect those six games to make or break the Panthers' run.

Best Case:

Pitt is a program that prides itself on player development.  If that happens with the returning players, it will go a long way toward ensuring success.  An NCAA Tournament season is very possible if the learning curve for the incoming talent is small.  The nonconference schedule is weak enough that even with growing pains a 12-1 mark is believable, with a loss to Texas as the only near-certain blemish.  Pitt has shown since the Petersen Events Center opened that they are capable of beating any team there; still, this team is almost guaranteed to lose a couple of games it shouldn't because of the youth.  Three of four against St. John's and Seton Hall and a split with the Mountaineers is possible and would go a long way.  In the remaining games 4-2 home and 3-3 away is probably the best that can be expected.  Still, that kind of year would be NCAA Tournament-worthy at 23-8, 11-7 with some Big East Tournament games to help with seeding.  Sixth place in the league is probably the ceiling.

Worst Case:

As a Pitt alum, this part is painful to type, but this possibility must be conceded even by the most optimistic followers.  If the returning guys can't improve the quality of their minutes, and if the young players take some time to adjust, a much worse finish is probably imminent.  Luckily there are few games out of conference that look difficult, so 10-3 or 9-4 is probably the worst to come even if they struggle.  Once league play begins, however, it is a different matter.  Gibbs, Taylor, Adams and company will probably win them a game or two they shouldn't.  Even so, a 1-5 mark in the home-and-homes is not out of the question.  There are five league teams the Panthers will probably not lose to, but the remaining seven games are all tough.  Something on the order of 7-11 in conference is a very real possibility, and that could slide them as low as 11th or 12th place.  They have a history of (mostly) playing well in the Garden, so they would probably add at least one win there.  That might not even be good enough for the NIT to come calling.

My Best Guess:

20-11 Overall, 9-9 Big East (9th place) plus two wins in the Big East tournament.  A very bubble-icious finish that I think lands them in the NIT.  This is probably about right on paper, even if I do  think they are capable of a little more.


Departing players, Ashton Gibbs, and Jamie Dixon images from post-gazette.com
Panther logo from chronicle.pitt.edu

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Basketball Preview

Rutgers enters the 2009-2010 basketball season with something of a foul taste in its mouth.  With a roster that included Anthony Farmer, JR Inman, Corey Chandler, Mike Rosario, and Gregory Echenique they expected to win a modest but respectable number of Big East games.  Instead they won two, and Farmer and Inman are gone. Chandler has been dismissed from the team, as well. There is one intriguing recruit and a JUCO transfer added to the mix, along with a couple of lesser-known freshmen, so this is probably close to the same team in terms of talent. Can Fred Hill get a little more out of them this year?  One thing in their favor is the brutal schedule they played last year.  That slate featured 11 games against NCAA tournament teams (including all four #1 seeds), five more against NIT teams, and a stretch during which six of seven opponents were ranked fifteen or higher.  So they are certainly prepared to take the court against difficult teams.

Team Info

Head Coach:

Fred Hill, 4th season

'08-'09 Results:

11-21 Overall, 2-17 Big East

no postseason

Departing Players:

G Anthony Farmer

G-F Jaron Griffin

F JR Inman
G Corey Chandler

Returning Players:
C Hamady Ndiaye (Sr.)

G Mike Coburn (Jr.)
F Gregory Echenique (So.)
F Patrick Jackson (So.)
F Tomasz Kokosinski (So.)
G Mike Kuhn (So.)
G Mike Rosario (So.)

Newcomers:
G James Beatty (JUCO)
F Jonathan Mitchell (transfer, Florida)
G Mohamed Hasani (Kosovo)
PF Austin Johnson
F Dane Miller
C Brian Okam


(Full Roster)



Nonconference Slate:  Marist, Drexel, Vermont, Massachusetts, Princeton, Colgate, Monmouth, Rider, NJIT, St. Peter's, @ North Carolina

Big East home-and-home:  Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall

Big East Home Opponents:  Cincinnati, Syracuse, Villanova, Notre Dame, St. John's, Connecticut


Big East Road Opponents:  West Virginia, Providence, South Florida, Marquette, Louisville, Pittsburgh


Legends Classic:  The Drexel and Vermont games are regional openers for this tournament.  Rutgers will then face UMass in a preset semifinal in Atlantic city, and finally either Michigan State or Florida in the consolation or championship game.


Coaches' Pick: 15th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

Rosario and Echenique carried a lot of hope with them in coming to Rutgers last year, but largely failed to deliver on it.  Rosario is clearly thier best talent, and he did put up very good freshman numbers, but it remains to be seen if Echenique can carry the load up front.  He'll get help if Jonathan Mitchell turns in better performances than his average game for Florida, and if true freshman Dane Miller is able to contribute right away. JUCO transfer James Beatty should be able to make up for most of what was lost in Anthony Farmer, but there's always a question mark when these athletes switch to Division I competition.  Another story worth keeping an eye on is the performance of Mohamed Hansi out of Europe; he could be an unexpected boost.  So there are a lot of intriguing players on this roster, but as each one save Rosario comes with a question mark I suspect this will not lead to any great heights.  If they are to surprise people they will need better contributions (and some stronger leadership) to returning players Hamady Ndiaye, and Mike Coburn.

Best Case:

Understand that what I'm about to say will take something akin to the aligning of planets...but since we have seen such things in the sports world before I will be true to the term "Best Case."  If Rosario adds even a little more to his game, pushing his average to 18-20 points; if Echenique and Ndiaye prove that their lackluster numbers were a product of the elite frontcourt competition last year; and if Beatty, Mitchell (who does have a national title, by the way), Miller, and Hasani all produce - the Knights could ride into conference play with a surprising 9-2 record.  This would include losses to North Carolina and to Michigan State in the Legends Classic championship game.  They could sweep a two game set at DePaul, split with both Seton Hall and Georgetown (two teams who I think will fail to meet expectations) and rattle off 4-5 more Big East wins.  That kind of performance would land them at around 17-12, 8-10 with a chance for another win or two in the Garden.  That kind of season could carry with it an invite to the NIT.

Worst Case:

The flip side of course (which I unfortunately see as the more likely scenario) could involve the wheels falling off very early.  Since Rosario is the only "sure thing" on the roster, a regression by him could easily cost them some games they should win.  This will especially be true if the returning bigs fail to step up in the way that's needed.  Both transfers are unproven in Division I, and could easily disappoint.  This combination would make it very hard for the incoming freshmen to adjust, whatever their talent level.  A series of disasters like that could well get them a record closer to 7-22, 3-15.

My Best Guess:

11-18 Overall, 4-16 Big East (15th place) with an opening round loss in the Big East tournament.  I know it isn't optimistic, but I just wouldn't count on more than half of the questions to be answered favorably.

Complete 2009-2010 Big East Preview

Intro:

It’s November, and to people like me that means one thing: college basketball. Specifically the last few years it has meant Big East basketball, and so it seems appropriate to debut my brand new sports blog in early November with a Big East Preview.

The Big East got seven bids in last year’s NCAA tournament, pulling down three number one seeds and advancing four teams to the Elite Eight and two to the Final Four. It also placed three teams in the NIT and one in the CBI, with Cincinnati declining an invitation to that tournament. It was a fairly successful season for a league some speculated would receive as many as nine or ten NCAA tournament bids. So what can we expect of this year’s version? Will the usual suspects be contending for a league title? Who’s in for a severe drop in the standings and who will make a move? I hope to answer all these questions and more.

The league will not be as deep or as thick around the middle as last year’s iteration. The mass exodus of talented players will see to that. Here’s an alphabetical list of key players that have graduated or jumped to the NBA: Jeff Adrien, Dwayne Anderson, Craig Austrie, Ryan Ayers, DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, Shane Clark, Dante Cunningham, Eric Devendorf, Weyinmi Efejuku, Anthony Farmer, LeVance Fields, Jonny Flynn, Randall Hanke, Paul Harris, Dominic James, Jonathan Kale, Kyle McAlarney, Geoff McDermott, Jerel McNeal, A.J. Price, Alex Ruoff, Jessie Sapp, DaJuan Summers, Hasheem Thabeet, Dar Tucker, Jesus Verdejo, Wesley Matthews, Mike Williams, Terrance Williams, Jeff Xavier, and Sam Young. Wow!

And yet, there is still plenty of love for Big East teams. The AP and Coaches' Polls rank 5 and 6 teams, respectively, with eight teams receiving votes. Gary Parrish of CBS likes seven. Jeff Goodman of Fox is a little more reserved. The influx of freshman (and in some cases, transfer) talent makes up for a lot of the departures. With a few of the ordinarily strong programs set to reload or rebuild, a few of the less successful programs in recent years may have a chance to make some noise. None of these polls give a mention to Cincinnati or St. John’s (teams poised to make a run) or Seton Hall (a team with a lot of talent that I personally am less high on). Fewer power teams at the top I believe will lead to more NCAA bids than last year, as the eighth and ninth place teams will thus have better opportunities to build resumes.

Projecting the standings:

Each team will get its own preview in forthcoming posts, but I’ll give my bottom line here, as well as where I think each team will land in the postseason.

1. Villanova – They’ve got the right combination of returning and incoming talent to be the favorite. They could field three starting backcourts capable of playing at this level. They lose a lot up front but have the recruiting class to fill those holes admirably.

(NCAA tournament)

2. West Virginia – The trio of Devin Ebanks, Da’Sean Butler, and Darryl Bryant is reminiscent of Young, Blair, Fields and will probably post similar numbers. There are two reasons they aren’t the favorite in my eyes: less depth than Villanova and a penchant for getting in trouble. I don’t trust Huggins to keep the group out of off-court trouble.

(NCAA tournament)

3. Connecticut – Few programs at any given time could lose the likes of Jeff Adrien, AJ Price, Hasheem Thabeet, and Craig Austrie and compete for a league title the very next year. Right now, Connecticut is one of those programs. Another Final Four may be out of reach, but they will be among the Big East contenders from day one.

(NCAA tournament)

4. Cincinnati – This is one of those teams that seems to be flying under the radar, but their talent level is impressive. Deonta Vaughn will be in the running for Big East POY, helped by turning over the point to the talented Cashmere Wright. They bring in a solid recruiting class headlined by “born ready” Lance Stephenson. Don’t be surprised when they earn a high seed and make a deep run in March.

(NCAA tournament)

5. Louisville – Earl Clark and Terrance Williams are gone, but a lot of talent is back. There is a deep (and underappreciated) backcourt rotation: Reginald Delk, Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, Preston Knowles, and Kyle Kuric all averaged .290 or better in points per minute (PPM), and they are joined by Peyton Silva and Mike Marra. Terrance Jennings, Samardo Samuels, and Rakeem Buckles will hold it down up front.

(NCAA tournament)

6. Syracuse – Arinze Onuaku was the least appreciated big man in last year’s stacked Big East. He’ll get a chance to show off what he’s got in a depleted league, alongside transfer Wesley Johnson (who averaged 12.4 points in the Big 12) and freshman Mookie Jones. The backcourt is a concern, but with Jim Boeheim already naming freshman Brandon Triche the starting PG perhaps less than it appears.

(NCAA tournament)

7. Georgetown – A lot of media sources are ranking this team…but I’m not buying it. I do think they will improve on last year’s finish, but mostly because of how much they underperformed that year. It will be hard to lose DaJuan Summers and Jessie Sapp from a team that lost in the first round of the NIT and make any serious noise. Still, Chris Wright, Austin Freeman, and Greg Monroe are a talented core. Much will ride on the freshman class, especially Hollis Thompson.

(NCAA tournament)

8. St. John’s – Norm Roberts has more talent here than he gets credit for, and it has grown together. Anthony Mason, Jr. is out for a few weeks, and how soon he returns will directly correlate with how much this team achieves. Mason, DJ Kennedy, Sean Evans, Paris Horne, Justin Burrell, and Rob Thomas all average .340 points per minute or better…no other Big East team returns six players with such scoring efficiency. The Johnnies add two JUCO transfers and a top 100 recruit. As long as Mason gets healthy, they should finish in the top half this year.

(NCAA tournament)

9. Pittsburgh – Talent? Check. Experience? Not so much. Jamie Dixon and this program have proven that they can bring guys along and win without star power, but there is a lot to make up for this time out. I think they could finish anywhere from 6 to 11 in this conference. They will improve as the year goes on, but will it be fast enough?

(NIT)

10. Seton Hall – Here is a team that will either make me look very wise or very foolish. Jeremy Hazell is one of the best returning players in the Big East. No one of real consequence is leaving, and transfers Herb Pope (New Mexico State) and Keon Lawrence (Missouri) will make them better. I still see them as the Hazell show, though, and think that all of the rosters I placed above them just happen to be superior. There is a lot of talent here, enough to maybe prove me very wrong.

(NIT)

11. Notre Dame – Luke Harangody is going to put up monster numbers. And yet, Notre Dame will still struggle to climb the standings. If Harangody’s gifts weren’t enough to help Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers to the NCAA tournament, than what can the team achieve without the other two? The roster is much thinner around the big man this year, despite the transfer of Ben Hansbrough and a decent freshman class.

(NIT)

12. Marquette – I love what Buzz Williams is doing with this program. They lose too much, though, to be a factor in the coming season. James, Matthews, and McNeal are gone, and they have already lost an excellent freshman to injury. The recruiting is going very well, so they’ll be back, but I think the CBI is about the best they can hope for. Don’t be surprised if they turn down an invite from any tournament below the NIT, though.

(CBI)

13. South Florida – The Bulls were a much different team once they added Gus Gilchrist last year. Unfortunately, that happened at about the same time the competition stiffened considerably, so it was hard to tell. They lose little but bring in little, leading most to believe they will be the same team. I think they will be improved with a season together to gel. Still, much higher than thirteenth is a bit ambitious.

(no postseason)

14. Providence – Nine players from the 2008-2009 squad are gone, leaving two talented players to supervise a brand new roster. A couple of JUCO transfers may give them a little life, but Sharaud Curry’s best chance at an NCAA tournament has come and gone. Now they’ll be lucky to stay out of the basement. This bunch might become a worthwhile group with time, but they will earn it with a tough go this season.

(no postseason)

15. Rutgers – I once thought that Mike Rosario and Gregory Echinique could become the centerpieces of a very good team.That just doesn’t look like it will be the case. Beyond those two, this roster is anemic. Unless there are a lot of surprises, this group will be lucky to win five Big East games. I question where their scoring will come from, they don’t have many great rebounders, and they turn the ball over too much. Perhaps JUCO transfer James Beatty will offer some help.

(no postseason)

16. DePaul – I have tried to summon some optimism for this team, but the reality is that Jerry Wainwright and his team are headed for another last-place finish unless something very unexpected happens. Mac Koshwal is very talented but was puzzlingly inconsistent last year, as was his departed teammate Dar Tucker. This is probably the hottest of hot seats in the country.

(no postseason)

For alternative viewpoints, check out the rivals.com preview or take a look at what the coaches have to say.

Individual Awards:

It doesn’t usually fall out by position, but I’m going to draw it up that way for simplicity’s sake. The talent level joining the league is outstanding as well, so much so that I had trouble narrowing it down to a freshman team. Instead, I prepared a “freshmen to watch” section, alphabetical by team.

First Team All-Conference

G Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall

G Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati

F Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia

F Lazar Hayward, Marquette

C Luke Harangody, Notre Dame (Conference POY)

Second Team All-Conference

G Scottie Reynolds, Villanova

G Jerome Dyson, Connecticut

F Samardo Samuels

F Anthony Mason, Jr.

C Arinze Onuaku

Third Team All-Conference

G Sharaud Curry, Providence

G Mike Rosario, Rutgers

F Devin Ebanks, West Virginia

F Yancy Gates, Cincinnati

C Greg Monroe, Georgetown

Freshmen to Watch

SF Lance Stephenson – Cincinnati (Conference FOY)

C Alex Oriakhi, G-F Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, SG Darius Smith – Connecticut

SF Hollis Thompson – Georgetown

PG Peyton Silva , PF Rakeem Buckles – Louisville

SF Erik Williams, PF Jeronne Maymon – Marquette

PF Dante Taylor, C Talib Zanna – Pittsburgh

C DaShonte Riley – Syracuse

SF Dominic Cheek, PF Isaih Armwood, PF Mouphtaou Yarou – Villanova

SG Dalton Pepper – West Virginia

There are a couple of final things worth noting about freshmen. First, as the Friars’ roster is bursting with freshmen, certainly some of them will also be worth watching; I am unsure which will shine, though. Second, there are several redshirt freshmen who should fare well: UConn’s Ater Majok, Syracuse’s Mookie Jones, Pitt’s Travon Woodall, and Cincinnati’s Cashmere Wright.

Wrapup:

Even in a "down" year seven or eight teams from the Big East should make the NCAA tournament.  Teams one to eleven in my projections are talented enough to dance if they hit their stride at the right time.  Many teams will rely heavily on freshmen, though, so consistency will be a concern.

Every Big East team save Seton Hall is participating one preseason event or another, and the league's representatives should show well overall.  For a comprehensive list of preseason tournaments, challenges, and invitationals follow this link.

Big East basketball is nearly upon us.  As always, it will be a wild ride from now until March.