Mega-Conference Mayhem? Part I

Conference Realignment is the talk of the college sports world, here in the lull between the two biggest sports seasons. The scuttlebutt seems to be that the Big Ten would like to get to 16 teams ideally, and that they have offered(?) Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, and Rutgers an informal invite. If the Big Ten does get to sixteen...SIXTEEN football teams, a lot of other things would certainly shake down. Below is my attempt at an ideal situation...a mix of what I think might happen and what I'd like to see happen. This is not meant to be predictive, so please don't read it that way.  I'm going to start with football, and soon I will follow it up with a perhaps futile exercise in creating the ideal possible landscape for basketball, as well.

Football (The Driver, The Frame, and The Engine)

Before proceeding, I want to reiterate that this is NOT what I think will happen. There are financial considerations about which I don't possess nearly enough knowledge to predict these things accurately. Some of what I say might be entirely out of the question. I'm just having fun with it, because it's a fascinating situation which I feel merits discussion. On to the content!


Step One - The Big Ten satisfies its appetite:

The instigator of the mayhem, the Big Ten becomes the Bigger Ten by getting its teams to bite. Chances are slim that Notre Dame will join in, but if the kind of realignment that I'm about to describe does start happening, and the Irish AD sees which way the wind is blowing, it might be enough to convince them that joining up is the only way to go. If we accept that premise, the Big Ten adds Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Pittsburgh to get to that sixteen team plateau. Here's how I'd like to see it line up:

Division A 
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio State
Purdue

Division B 
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Wisconsin

Some of these groupings are obvious - others nearly impossible to satisfy all teams. For example, Michigan State and Michigan must be together, as must Ohio State and Michigan. Another such trio is Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue...and yet a third is Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Notre Dame would like to be paired with almost everyone, so anywhere they're placed removes a rivalry. It would be nice to keep Missouri with Nebraska and Pitt with Rutgers, but all of the newcomers in one division doesn't work. So, the above is the closest approximation to an equitable situation, in my opinion.


Step Two - The Fate of the Big 12 and Big East:

Bottom line, the Big Twelve just might have the staying power in Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, OK State, and Kansas to survive the raid as a football conference. The Big East simply doesn't. It will fold like my simile skills right now. The Big Twelve will survive - and expand - IF the SEC doesn't step in to poach Texas and Oklahoma. I'm hoping that doesn't happen, because I'd hate to see the Texas and Oklahoma schools broken up. I don't know that the Big Twelve has enough viable invites to get to 16, but I think 14 is attainable. The teams I see them adding easily are TCU, Memphis, and Louisville. The last is wishy-washy...I would say Boise State but I see them going elsewhere. That leaves me considering Nevada or perhaps a Mountain West Team. Cincinnati could be the team. Suddenly in my thought process, though, a new team has jumped up and grabbed me. It's one I hadn't considered before, because I thought no one would leave their league (drumroll)  Vanderbilt.  I give you the Big 14:

Division A
Baylor
Colorado
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M

Division B
Kansas
Kansas State
Memphis
Louisville
Texas Tech
TCU
Vanderbilt


The travel arrangements are a little worrisome, but I think that setup would at least be passable. Grouping Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Louisville together minimizes the problem somewhat. Awkward trips to Texas, Oklahoma, or Colorado for those three are unavoidable though. The Big East's football schools are now down to West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut, and South Florida, for those who are counting.


Step Three - The SEC keeps pace:

The SEC and its football pride would not stand for being outdone by the Big Ten. They're used to being the biggest and baddest, and they want to stay that way. There are teams they covet, and all of them would be willing to bolt if asked. I see five spots and five obvious teams to fill them: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. So how does it set up?

SEC East
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
Miami
South Carolina
Tennessee

SEC West
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

That's quite a behemoth.  The ACC is in trouble if this happens, but that'll be addressed in my next step...


Step four - The ACC gets frantic:

Poached of some of its more desirable programs, the ACC is now left with a stark choice:  dissolve or add some new schools. I think the answer is clear, because there are plenty of football/basketball programs left in the East. The first move would be to absorb the remaining Big East schools: Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Syracuse. An invite to Army and Navy would clean up the Independents and get the ACC to thirteen teams, not to mention show some respect for the service academies. Here the ACC would be faced with an interesting decision:  do they try to get to sixteen by adding mediocre programs, add one mediocre program, or stay at an unbalanced thirteen? My gut tells me they'd go for the full complement of sixteen in a "throw 'em at the wall and see what sticks," approach. Rounding out the league, I like Temple, East Carolina, and UCF.

Atlantic
Army
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Temple
Wake Forest

Coastal
Central Florida
Connecticut
Duke
East Carolina
Navy
North Carolina
Syracuse
Virginia

That actually doesn't look like a bad conference.  It might be a little marginalized in football what with the service academies and Temple, but I think those programs are respectable enough.  In basketball it would remain a wonderfully strong league.


Step Five - The Pac 10 reluctantly joins the party:

Pac Ten purists would love to remain at ten teams and only ten teams. They like history. Faced with the four behemoths above, however (and a healthy dose of East Coast Bias - at least in terms of coverage) they would have no choice but to reach out to other quality programs. I don't anticipate them leaping to a full sixteen, but I think four programs do bring to the table quality in both sports and academics. The Pac could hit up the Mountain West for BYU, UNLV, and Utah...and could extend a much-deserved offer to Boise State. I hate to suggest this, for fear of West Coast wrath, but I think a name change would be in order. Dare I say, "the Pacific Coast Conference"?

North
Boise State
BYU
Oregon
Oregon State
Utah
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Stanford
UCLA
UNLV
USC

So there you have it:  five mega-conferences with an even bigger stranglehold on the BCS, or on whatever succeeds it. There is some cleanup left to do before moving on to basketball, but the above teams would clearly be the "haves" and the rest would feel like an afterthought. I would assume that some of the poached smaller conferences would amalgamate - also into fairly large units - and that is step six.


Step Six - Mid-major consolidation:

As much as I hate the term mid-major, it applies here, and perhaps more than ever before. The teams that remain will be marginalized in ways I'd rather not see happen. If expansion is a reality, though, then that reality will leave a lot of teams in  terrible positions. What I envision is three conferences of fourteen teams consolidated from the five existing leagues. They should line up more or less geographically, although the number of teams from each area makes that difficult. An invite to the Big Twelve (or whatever number it ends up with) for Marshall and one for Air Force would improve the situation - but I had already considered and rejected that above. Consider that option B. In any case, the three final leagues I'd like to see are, in no particular order:

Gulf Coast Area Conference (AKA SEC Lite)
Arkansas State
FAU
FIU
Houston
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee
Rice
Southern Miss
Troy
Tulane
UAB
Western Kentucky

I know Middle Tennesse is not in the Gulf Coast area, really.  Tough.  They could of course be placed in the "New MAC" below.

WAC (or Mountain West, or something new)
Colorado State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas
San Diego State
San Jose State
Southern Methodist
Utah State
UTEP
Wyoming

NMAC (New Mid-American Conference)
Air Force
Akron
Ball State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Kent State
Marshall
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Tulsa
Western Michigan

The Geography isn't perfect.  Houston is better than the league in which it landed.  Otherwise, I am satisfied with that arrangement.


Wrap-up of the Football Landscape:

There are several primary reasons (or at least positive consequences) of the setup I've laid out.

1. No team currently in a BCS-affiliated league gets left out of the party.
2. Several teams that need to be IN the party get there (Boise and Utah are the headliners)
3. A few less obvious choices will get their shot as well
4. No more Independents
5. Two of the Service Academies get respect
6. Most rivalries are preserved and new rivalries are created
7. The conferences are closer in size - ranging from 14 to 16 teams each instead of 8 to 12
8. There is room for some FCS programs to move up in time, joining either the three "lesser" conferences or even the Big 14 or PCC.
9. With only eight conferences, there's a possibility that the BCS could add another game and have representation from every conference.  I would be ecstatic.  We're not getting a playoff, so an eight-conference format with each champ getting an auto-bid might be a worthy compromise.

Stay tuned for the basketball version to follow shortly.

Pittsburgh Panthers Basketball Preview

It's going to be a year of transition for the Pitt Panthers.  They have parted ways with one of the nation's best centers, one of the nation's best wing players, and one of the nation's best passers.  They bring in a top recruiting class headed by Dante Taylor.  The program is one of eight to appear in the last eight NCAA Tournaments (six of those under Jamie Dixon) but that run could be in serious jeopardy with so much talent gone.  Pitt has had successful seasons before with lesser-known players and no big stars...if they want to dance this will have to be another of those seasons.  Among Pitt fans, the outlook seems to be one of cautious optimism.  After Dixon led the United states to an Under-19 Gold Medal, there is reason to believe he can get a new group playing together and playing well quickly.  It's hard to imagine them falling to the basement in the Big East - they've been a model of consistency since Ben Howland resurrected the program at the beginning of the decade - but a top-half finish would have to be considered a success for '09-'10.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jamie Dixon, 7th season

'08-'09 Results:
31-5 Overall, 15-4 Big East
Elite Eight (1 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Tyrell Biggs
C DeJuan Blair
F Sean Brown
PG LeVance Fields
G Ryan Tiesi
F Sam Young

Returning Players:
SG Jermaine Dixon (Sr.) out first two weeks
G-F Gilbert Brown (Jr.) academically ineligible 1st semester
G Tim Frye (Jr.)
C Gary McGhee (Jr.)
G Brad Wanamaker (Jr.)
G Ashton Gibbs (So.)
F Nasir Robinson (So.)

Newcomers:
G Chase Adams (transfer, Centenary)
F Dwight Miller (RS)
PG Travon Woodall (RS)
SF Lamar Patterson
C JJ Richardson
G Nick Rivers
PF Dante Taylor
C Talib Zanna

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Wofford, Binghamton, Eastern Kentucky, Wichita State, Youngstown State, @ Duquesne, New Hampshire, @ Indiana, Kent State, Mount St. Mary's, Ohio, Robert Morris


Big East home-and-home:  Seton Hall, St. John's, West Virginia


Big East Home Opponents:  Louisville, Georgetown, DePaul, Villanova, Providence, Rutgers


Big East Road Opponents:  Syracuse, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame

CBE Classic:  Pitt is a regional host in this tournament, and will advance to the semifinal game against Wichita State regardless of the outcome vs. Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky.  Their final opponent here will be either Texas or Iowa in the championship or consolation game.


Coaches' Pick: 9th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:


Dante Taylor, Lamar Patterson, and Talib Zanna form the backbone of an excellent recruiting class.  The talent here is concentrated in the newcomers, though, which is a dangerous combination when trying to make an NCAA Tournament from a BCS-affiliated league.  This is even more true with Gilbert Brown out until at least January and Jermaine Dixon out for a couple of weeks.  There is more help than most realize on the way, though.  Red-shirt freshman Travon Woodall is coming along nicely at the point and his counterpart Dwight Miller looks solid as well.  Chase Adams transfers in from Centenary, where he averaged 14.6 points, 4.2 boards and 4.5 assists; he is eligible immediately.  Ashton Gibbs is only a sophomore, but is perhaps the best pure shooter Pitt has had this decade.  A lot will ride on whether Gary McGhee, Brad Wanamaker, and Nasir Robinson can give solid minutes as the youngsters learn the ropes.  So a good run is certainly possible and it's something Pitt has done before.  But they also have never had to replace so much talent at once during their recent run of successes.  I anticipate their home-and-home slate will be a major key to their success.  Seton Hall and St. John's are both trying to make their NCAA run this year (and are, consequently, the teams I have immediately behind and in front of Pitt in my projection) and West Virginia will be a tough opponent for anyone.  The nonconference slate is weak aside from a possible game against Texas so expect those six games to make or break the Panthers' run.

Best Case:

Pitt is a program that prides itself on player development.  If that happens with the returning players, it will go a long way toward ensuring success.  An NCAA Tournament season is very possible if the learning curve for the incoming talent is small.  The nonconference schedule is weak enough that even with growing pains a 12-1 mark is believable, with a loss to Texas as the only near-certain blemish.  Pitt has shown since the Petersen Events Center opened that they are capable of beating any team there; still, this team is almost guaranteed to lose a couple of games it shouldn't because of the youth.  Three of four against St. John's and Seton Hall and a split with the Mountaineers is possible and would go a long way.  In the remaining games 4-2 home and 3-3 away is probably the best that can be expected.  Still, that kind of year would be NCAA Tournament-worthy at 23-8, 11-7 with some Big East Tournament games to help with seeding.  Sixth place in the league is probably the ceiling.

Worst Case:

As a Pitt alum, this part is painful to type, but this possibility must be conceded even by the most optimistic followers.  If the returning guys can't improve the quality of their minutes, and if the young players take some time to adjust, a much worse finish is probably imminent.  Luckily there are few games out of conference that look difficult, so 10-3 or 9-4 is probably the worst to come even if they struggle.  Once league play begins, however, it is a different matter.  Gibbs, Taylor, Adams and company will probably win them a game or two they shouldn't.  Even so, a 1-5 mark in the home-and-homes is not out of the question.  There are five league teams the Panthers will probably not lose to, but the remaining seven games are all tough.  Something on the order of 7-11 in conference is a very real possibility, and that could slide them as low as 11th or 12th place.  They have a history of (mostly) playing well in the Garden, so they would probably add at least one win there.  That might not even be good enough for the NIT to come calling.

My Best Guess:

20-11 Overall, 9-9 Big East (9th place) plus two wins in the Big East tournament.  A very bubble-icious finish that I think lands them in the NIT.  This is probably about right on paper, even if I do  think they are capable of a little more.


Departing players, Ashton Gibbs, and Jamie Dixon images from post-gazette.com
Panther logo from chronicle.pitt.edu