St. John's Red Storm Basketball Preview

Norm Roberts has been through a lot with this school over the last couple of years.  Right now, though, a class that was all freshmen two years ago is still intact, and he has to be feeling good about his chances to finally get the Johnnies into an NCAA Tournament.  It won't be easy, but if any St. John's roster since the league expansion has a chance, this one does.  The departures are minimal, the returning players have solid numbers, and Anthony Mason Jr. will be back soon (presumably).  A couple of guys coming in from JUCO and a pair of modest but decent recruits join the core group.  What it all means is that this team could run as deep as twelve or thirteen players and have a starting five that might fly under the radar all the way through.  There will be bumps on the road I'm sure, but it is hard not to like the makeup of this team and pull for Roberts to get them back in a position they used to be familiar with.  The first obstacle is getting Mason healthy and keeping him that way, but if they do the ceiling could be higher than most anyone realizes.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Norm Roberts, 6th season

'08-'09 Results:
16-18 Overall, 7-13 Big East
CBI opening round (4 Seed)

Departing Players:
G Julius Brown (never played)
G Matt Duell
C Tomas Jasiulionis
F Guesly Saint Aubin (never played)

Returning Players:
F Anthony Mason, Jr. (Sr.)
G Malik Boothe (Jr.)
F Justin Burrell (Jr.)
F-C Dele Coker (Jr.)
F Sean Evans (Jr.)
G Paris Horne (Jr.)
G-F DJ Kennedy (Jr.)
G John Taubeneck (Jr.)
F Rob Thomas (Jr.)
F Kevin Clark (So.)
G Quincy Roberts (So.)

Newcomers:
F Justin Brownlee (JUCO)
G Dwight Hardy (JUCO)
SF Omari Lawrence
G Malik Stith

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Long Island, St. Bonaventure, Brown, Siena, @Temple, Stony Brook, @Duke, Georgia, Fordham, Hofstra, Bryant

Big East home-and-home:  Louisville, Pittsburgh, DePaul

Big East Home Opponents:  Providence, Cincinnati, Villanova, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Marquette

Big East Road Opponents:  Georgetown, Conecticut, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida, Syracuse


Philly Hoop Group Classic:  St. John's will participate in this event, with a preliminary round game against Brown and two championship round games against Siena and Temple.  The tournament's other participants are Delaware, Virginia Tech, and The University of the Sciences in Philadelphia.

Coaches' Pick: 11th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

I will use one of my favorite stats, points per minute (ppm) to ilustrate why I'm very high on this group of athletes.  With the return of Anthony Mason, Jr. St. John's brings back six players who averaged .350 or better in ppm in their last full season of play.  They are: Mason (.461), Rob Thomas (.449), Paris Horne (.422), DJ Kennedy (.376), Sean Evans (.375), and Justin Burrell (.350).  And it isn't a situation where someone put up those numbers with little sample size - the lowest average minutes per game was Thomas's 13.6.  They lose next to nothing in terms of contributions.  Four players have moved on, but only one of those scored so much as a point for the Red Storm last season (Jasiulionis, whose ppm were .113).  Malik Boothe did not score like he was believed capable (.190 ppm in 33.7 minutes), but is someone the team thinks can improve.  Even if he doesn't, transfer Dwight Hardy is probably a better shooter and may take some of those minutes.  Their other transfer, Justin Brownlee, averaged double figures in scoring in junior college.  Dele Coker and Quincy Roberts may struggle to get minutes, but only because the team has excellent depth.  It will be interesting to see how much playing time freshmen Omari Lawrence and Malik Stith get - and what they do with it.  The biggest problem may be getting all these scorers enough minutes.  They will also have to improve on defense and rebounding over last season, but with experience and a generally bigger team that may not be as difficult as one could imagine.

Best Case:

Since I kind of gushed above, you probably already know that I think their ceiling is pretty high.  Somewhere between nine and twelve of the player above are probably capable of scoring in double figures given the minutes...which doesn't mean I expect 90-120 points a game.  I do think, though, that if they find the right rotation early they could score at will on almost anyone.  Since I don't see them playing elite defense, they will probably lose some games they shouldn't.  There are some tough games out of conference, which is why I think they will lose at least two (@ Duke and either Siena or Temple) but they should roll in most of them.  Even if reach play with that kind of mark, 9-2 probably won't make anyone take notice.  Once conference play begins, they should run DePaul off the court both times and are certainly capable of home-and-home splits against U of L and Pitt.  There is probably a cap of around 4-2 home and 3-3 road for the rest of the Big East games, but that still could bring them to a 20-9, 11-7 record and an NCAA tournament.  11-7 is probably good for about sixth place in the league.

Worst Case:

Many don't have a lot of faith in Norm Roberts's ability to get any team to the NCAA Tournament, and perhaps that's justified.  Even with this much talent, their run could get derailed in a tough league, especially with a relatively ambitious ooc set.  Maybe Mason is never what he was.  Maybe the junior class backslides a bit and doesn't get after it on defense.  Maybe the newcomers simply get out-classed in Division I.  That combination could lead to a disastrous season, at least in comparison to the potential.  A 6-5 mark is not out of the question before league play, nor is 2-4 in the home-and-homes.  It's even possible that they could win only 3 other league games as well.  That would give them a 5-13 league mark, 11-18 overall, and keep them near the bottom of the standings.  I really don't think it will get that bad, but this is a team that has a wide range of possibilities.

My Best Guess:

19-10 Overall, 10-8 Big East (8th place) plus a loss to Pitt in the Big East tournament if the standings finish where I believe they will.  If they do get at least one win in the Garden, I think that gets them in the NCAA Tournament, otherwise that might be an NIT resume.


Team logo from ecasports.com
Anthony Mason, Jr. and Norm Roberts images from Redstormsports.com
hoop group classic logo from howard-bison.com