Syracuse Orange Basketball Preview

I had been doing these team previews counting from last to first in my projected Big East standings.  But, since the Orange open regular-season play tonight I am skipping ahead to them in an effort to presere the meaning of "Preview."  I will be readjusting the order from today on in an attempt to catch as many teams as possible before their regular season debuts.

Many are distrustful of the Orange entering the season, citing major losses to the NBA draft in the persons of Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, and Paul Harris.  The departures don't stop there - five more from that Sweet Sixteen roster are gone.  Others, though, are high on the Orange because of their returning players and array of newcomers.  Both groups bring valid points to the discussion, making Syracuse one of the more interesting teams in the league as play opens this evening.  It is dangerous to underestimate a talented group of players coached by a man like Jim Boeheim; yet the Big East can eat unexperienced players alive at times.  Where does the balance lie?  The Le Moyne loss is taken as an omen by some, but I view it as just what it was: an exhibition.  The Orange would've loved to win, I'm sure, but ultimately it gives predictors no useful information.  I do believe that this team has probably the widest gap between its best and worst possible finishes; anywhere from fourth to twelth place or so.  I am, as we will see, leaning more toward the best case.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jim Boeheim, 34th season

'08-'09 Results:
28-10 Overall, 14-8 Big East
Sweet Sixteen (3 seed)

Departing Players:
SG Eric Devendorf
G Kevin Drew
PG Jonny Flynn
F Paul Harris
F Kristof Ongenaet
G Jake Presutti
G Justin Thomas
C Sean Williams

Returning Players:
C Arinze Onuaku (Sr.)
G Andy Rautins (Sr.)
F Rick Jackson (Jr.)
G Scoop Jardine (So.)
F Kris Joseph (So.)
G Brandon Reese (So.)
G Nick Resavy (So.)

Newcomers:
F Wesley Johnson (transfer, Iowa State)
F Matt Tomaszewski (JUCO)
SF Mookie Jones (RS)
SF James Southerland (RS)
C DaShonte Riley
PG Brandon Triche

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Albany, Robert Morris, @ California, Cornell, Columbia, Colgate, Maine, @ Florida, St. Francis (NY), St. Bonaventure, Oakland, Memphis

Big East home-and-home:  Georgetown, Providence, Louisville

Big East Home Opponents: Pittsburgh, South Florida, Marquette, Connecticut, Villanova, St. John's

Big East Road Opponents: Seton Hall, Rutgers, West Virginia, Notre Dame, DePaul, Cincinnati


2K Sports Classic:  This tournament features predetermined semifinal matchups after the opening rounds are hosted by the four semifinal schools.  Syracuse hosts Albany and Robert Morris before playing California for the chance to take on the winner of North Carolina-Ohio State.  The losers will also meet to determine third and fourth place.


Coaches' Pick: 6th, Big East



Outlook

The Skinny:


The newcomers on this team could be viewed as getting two good recruiting classes at once.  It remains to be seen whether this will be an asset, as a boon of incoming talent that keeps them from missing a beat...or a liability, as a group of inexperienced players who can't get it together.  There is some stability in the form of Onuaku, Rautins, Rick Jackson and in my eyes Scoop Jardine as a valuable reserve.  But that new group will have a lot to say about where the Orange land in the standings.  Not all of the new guys are inexperienced.  Wes Johnson averaged 12.4 points in the Big 12, and Matt Tomaszewski has junior college experience.  Brandon Triche was long ago named the starting point guard, and while he wasn't that highly touted Boeheim's early and apparently easy decision is a good sign.  There's a lot to challenge them in their out of conference and league slates.  If I have any idea what I'm talking about they got a very fair run of Big East games with one team from the top quarter, one from the middle half, and one from the bottom quarter as the repeat foes.

Best Case:

With the inexperience, I see them finishing at best second in the tournament (which they tip off tonight).  That will give them some early and needed experience, though, and if they come out of it playing like a unit they could surprise many people.  If Onuaku and Rautins are who I think they are, that alone will get them some wins.  If Wes Johnson can step in and average 12 in the Big East, and if Triche takes well to the point, that will expand the ceiling significantly.  Rick Jackson, DaShonte Riley, and Mookie Jones may provide quality minutes as well, and if they do this will be among the deeper frontcourts in the nation.  Scoop Jardine will be a major x-factor; if his play improves a bit it could be the last piece they need to be a complete team.  If every point I mentioned above goes right, they could storm into Big East play having just one loss (to UNC or OSU in the 2K Cports Classic).  If they do that it will build them a nice tournament resume with wins over Cal, Florida, and Memphis.  They could well sweep Georgetown and Providence while splitting with Lousville, and the best case I see has them winning seven more league games to finish 12-6 in conference.  At 24-7 they would need a run in the garden only to improve their seed.

Worst Case:

The problem of course is that with so many new players, everything except for a solid contribution from Onuaku and Rautins is at least a little suspect.  Even those two could potentially regress a little.  If that happens, and they also fail to be a presence the younger guys can rely on, it could be a disastrous season.  It's not hard to imagine the Orange losing both to California and the UNC-OSU loser early.  Florida and Memphis will beat them if they are not playing their best by then, and slipups are possible against Maine or Oakland as well.  That could lead to an ooc record as bad as 8-5.  It would be equally possible for them to lose five of the home-and-home games as to win five, and to lose seven additional league games as to win seven.  The final record of 14-17 would not be much to speak of for a Boeheim team regardless of what happened in the Big East tournament.

My Best Guess:

21-10 Overall, 11-7 Big East (6th place) plus one to three wins in the Garden, depending on matchups.  This should be enough to get them a seed somewhere between 5 and 8.  I am buying them as a very good team but not as a serious contender for the conference title.


Arinze Onuaku image from fingerlakes1.com
2K Sports Classic logo from ballersnetwork.com
Boeheim lecturing image from SI.com