Georgetown Hoyas Basketball Preview

The Hoyas are optimistic that they can shake off last season's catastrophic finish and return to the NCAA tournament.  Can they make that optimism a reality without DaJuan Summers and Jessie Sapp?  John Thompson III and the Big East coaches seem to think so - they were picked fifth in the media day poll - but there is certainly work to do.  Junior guards Christ Wright and Austin Freeman along with sophomore big man Greg Monroe will lead the charge, but this team likes to spread the scoring around so other names will emerge as the season progresses.  Hollis Thompson and Vee Sanford headline a fairly good recruiting class which should integrate nicely.  Critics remember that Georgetown tumbled after an impressive win at Connecticut launched them into the top ten, and that that team's leading scorer is gone.  After that game the Hoyas went 6-14, including the postseason, and that run included two losses to St. John's and Cincinnati and a loss to Seton Hall as well.  So it seems that Georgetown will be something of a wild card this year - either proving that last season was an abberation or struggling against a tough slate of opponents.


Team Info

Head Coach:
John Thompson, III, 6th season

'08-'09 Results:
16-15 Overall, 7-12 Big East
NIT opening round (6 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Bryon Jansen
G Jessie Sapp
F DaJuan Summers
G-F Omar Wattad

Returning Players:
G Ryan Dougherty (Jr.)
G Austin Freeman (Jr.)
G-F Nikita Mescheriakov (Jr.)
F Julian Vaughn (Jr.)
G Chris Wright (Jr.)
G Jason Clark (So.)
C Greg Monroe (So.)
C Henry Sims (So.)

Newcomers:
SF Jerrelle Benimon
PG Vee Sanford
G Stephen Stepka
SF Hollis Thompson

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  @ Tulane, Temple, @ Savannah State, LaFayette, Mount St. Mary's, American, Butler(Jimmy V Classic), @ Washington (Wooden Classic), Old Dominion, Harvard, Duke


Big East home-and-home:  Villanova, Rutgers, Syracuse

Big East Home Opponents:  St. John's, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

Big East Road Opponents:  DePaul, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Providence, Louisville, West Virginia

Coaches' Pick: 5th, Big East



Outlook

The Skinny:

This team is very hard to pin down because of the wild year they just had.  I do not number them among the serious contenders for a conference title, but I wouldn't be surprised with the 5th place finish the coaches predict or slightly better.  But I would be equally unsurprised if they finished in 10th or 11th.  Here's why:  last year's team did have wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Connecticut, Memphis, and Maryland..but only sixteen wins overall.  So I don't trust them.  I don't trust them to be great nor do I trust them to stink.  The roster, as I see it, is pretty thin but very good at the top.  Monroe is a stud inside and will play like one, and Wright and Freeman form a formidable backcourt.  Thompson and Sanford are going to be good, but they will need some time to develop and will make freshman mistakes.  I do think the Hoyas have found gold in lightly recruited Jerrelle Benimon - he's a do-it-all kind of player that is perfect for the system; he'll need to be coached up though.  If they want to do better than the NIT this season, though, someone else will have to step up.  The play of Clark, Vaughn, and Mescheriakov will have to improve.

Best Case:

We know Monroe, Wright, and Freeman will be a solid trio.  What we don't know is how fast the freshmen will get up to speed or what to expect from the lesser-known vets.  If everyone gets it together, this team has evidence that it can beat anyone.  What they have not shown is the grit to bear down and beat great opponents repeatedly, so I don't think a league title is in reach even under the best of circumstances.  Still, the ooc offers them three chances to beat very good opponents.  A 9-2 run through that slate would put the Hoyas in an excellent position.  If Big East play is split into thirds: The repeat opponents, the home-only and the road-only Georgetown has the schedule to manage 4-2 in all three (and perhaps 5-1 in home-only), putting them at 13-5 and perhaps around 4th or 5th place.  That would quiet the naysayers and bring them right back into the NCAA Tournament, regardless of Big East Tournament play.

Worst Case:

If the freshmen don't take to the system right away, and if (as I suspect) they have trouble getting contributions from their returning roster aside from the big three guys they could be in for another long year.  They have three top 15 teams on their nonconference schedule and could easily lose all of those plus a shocker.  Villanova and Syracuse are both capable of pulling off the sweep, although I doubt Rutgers can play with them.  Cincinnati, Seton Hall, and St. Johns (the three teams they lost five games to down the stretch last year) are all improved and all visit the Verizon Center.  I could see the Hoyas losing to all of those teams again, and losing at Pitt, Louisville, and West Virginia as well.  All in all, it could result in a record as low as 14-15 Overall, 7-11 Big East and dropping them to 11th or so in the league.

My Best Guess:

18-11 Overall, 10-8 Big East (7th place) plus a win or two in Madison Square Garden.  I have them in the NCAA Tournament but not matching the hype they have generated.  Frankly they will need to prove why they are not the same team from 2008-2009 before I really buy into them.



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