Providence Friars Basketball Preview

It's unusual to see a program's players vacate on the level this team has seen since their NIT run a few months ago without violations, sanctions, coaching changes, or some other turmoil.  Nine players are gone, and those nine players were responsible for almost exactly two-thirds of the Friars' scoring (1701 of 2577 points).  Eight players do return, but only four of those saw as much as a single minute in '08-'09 (and only three scored).  So coach Keno Davis has the unenviable challenge of integrating twelve newcomers with exceptional talent Sharaud Curry and decent wing Marshon Brooks.  It's hard to imagine losing that much from a team that was bounced from the first round of the NIT and competing in a league that always fields at least ten quality teams.  Davis does have a good group of kids coming in who could grow together into a deep and dangerous team...but no one on the roster has the makeup that says "I will make you forget about the guys who left."  Pictured to the left and right are the five biggest departing contributors.

Team Info

Head Coach:
Keno Davis, 2nd season

'08-'09 Results:
19-14 Overall, 11-9 Big East
NIT first round (5 seed)

Departing Players:
F Chris Baudinet
F Brian Beloin
G-F Weyinmi Efejuku

F-C Randall Hanke
F Connor Heine
F-C Jonathan Kale
G Alex Kellogg
F Geoff McDermott
G Jeff Xavier

Returning Players:
G Luke Burchett (Sr.)
G Sharaud Curry (Sr.)
C Ray Hall (Sr.) - DNP '08-'09
G Brian McKenzie (Sr.)
G-F Marshon Brooks (Jr.)
G Chris Carter (Jr.) - DNP '08-'09
F Jamine Peterson (So.) - DNP '08-'09

Newcomers:
C Russ Permenter (JUCO)
G-F Kyle Wright (JUCO)
F-C Bilal Dixon (RS)
PF Kadeem Batts
PG Vincent Council
G Xavier Davis
PG Johnnie Lacy
SG Duke Mondy
C James Still

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Bryant, Bucknell, Mercer, @ Alabama, Vermont, Boston College, @ Northeastern, @ Rhode Island, Brown, @ George Washington, Yale

Big East home-and-home:  Marquette, South Florida, Syracuse


Big East Home Opponents: Louisville, Rutgers, Connecticut, Georgetown, West Virginia, Seton Hall

Big East Road Opponents: Notre Dame, St. John's, DePaul, Cincinnati, Villanova, Pittsburgh


World Vision Invitational:  PC's first three games are part of this round-robin tournament, an event which the Friars are hosting.

Coaches' Pick:  13th Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

This season is going to swing on development.  If that happens fast, the Friars might be able to creep up the Big East standings.  If it doesn't, this could be a mess.  Curry and Brooks are going to be solid but the rest will need to pull together quickly if anything is to be made of the season.  The good news is that even if the year ends with a terrible record the experience will be invaluable to the young guys.  Taking their lumps now may lead to real success in the future.  Success may well turn on the ability of Bilal Dixon and Russ Permenter to hold it down up front.  Curry is perfectly capable of putting up 20+ from time to time...and the more often he does so the more games they will win.

Best Case:

If Curry, Brooks, Dixon, Permenter, and Wright can all mesh immediately, they could win all three games in the World Vision Basketball Invitational on their way to a 10-2 start.  It will also take an improvement by Brian McKenzie and solid minutes from two or three other players, but it's possible.  Even under the best of circumstances, there are only three road Big East games that look winnable (Marquette, South Florida, and DePaul) but they could capture six or seven at home...though that would take some surprises.  That would put them at 19-11, 9-9 and in good shape for an NIT bid.  A lot would depend on how many wins they could add in the Big East tournament.

Worst Case:

Before I proceed: I haven't mentioned this yet, but my "worst case" for each team does not include the possibility of injury to a major player; I am assuming an intact and healthy roster.  With that out of the way...
It's certainly believable that Curry and Brooks will regress somewhat with less talent around them.  If that happens, and the leadership collapses, it could be difficult for the freshmen to assert themselves, especially once league play gets going.  Beyond those two, most minutes will be coming from players who haven't logged any minutes on the D-I hardwood which of course carries a lot of uncertainty.  If none of the youngsters step up they could be looking at a record something like 10-20, 4-14; a finish like that would not put them in a good position heading to New York.

My Best Guess:
14-16 Overall, 5-13 Big East (14th place) plus at most one win in MSG.  They will show well before conference play begins, but their youth will hurt them in the league games.