Villanova Wildcats Basketball Preview

Hype is everywhere for the preseason Big East favorite.  The coaches picked 'em to win and both polls have them in the top ten.  And why not?  They had an impressive Final Four season last year and their flashiest player from that team - Scottie Reynolds - is back.  They also return Corey Stokes, Corey Fisher, and Reggie Redding, and that alone is enough to give other teams pause.  What they do lose is almost all of their production from the frontcourt.  Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark, and Dwayne Anderson have all moved on to greener pastures, so clearly there is a hole to fill.  They do bring in what most consider the strongest recruiting class in the conference, though, so at least some of the answers should be right there.  The freshman class features four top fifty recruits (read: eight percent of the nation's fifty highest-rated newcomers) and a fifth guy who was "only" ranked 25th at his position.  The general "theyre freshmen" disclaimer applies, but when the class is that deep it seems to me you're guaranteed at least one or two will produce immediately.  Jay Wright is no slouch on the sidelines, either.  Rather than cherry-picking the things to say about his accomplishments, I'll refer you to what the program has to say.  Can they live up to expectations?  Is there one glaring concern really going to glare that brightly?


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jay Wright, 9th season


'08-'09 Results:
30-8 Overall, 14-6 Big East
Final Four (3 Seed)

Departing Players:
G-F Dwayne Anderson
F Shane Clark
F Dante Cunningham
F Frank Tchuisi

Returning Players:
G Jason Colenda (Sr.)
G Reggie Redding (Sr.)
G Scottie Reynolds (Sr.)
F Russell Wooten (Sr.)

G Corey Fisher (Jr.)
F Antonia Pena (Jr.)
G Corey Stokes (Jr.)


Newcomers:
F Taylor King (transfer, Duke)
PF Isaiah Armwood
G-F Dominic Cheek
C Maurice Sutton
PG Maalik Wayns
PF Mouphtaou Yarou

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Fairleigh Dickinson, Pennsylvania, George Mason, La Salle, Drexel, @Maryland, @Saint Joseph's, @Temple, @Fordham, Delaware

Big East home-and-home: Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia

Big East Home Opponents:  DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, Connecticut, South Florida

Big East Road Opponents: Louisville, Rutgers, St. John's, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati

Puerto Rico Season Tip-Off:  Villanova is matched up with George Mason to start this event off.  If they win, they will face the winner of Dayton and Georgia Tech.  Win again and they would be in a championship game against Indiana, Mississippi, Boston University, or Kansas State.  That's a great field to be a part of.

Coaches' Pick:  1st, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

The team is simply loaded with talent.  The backcourt is the deepest in the nation, and I have yet to find another roster I would even compare it to.  In a traditional 1-5 setup, one could easily piece together three competent starting backcourts at this level of play.  Just as an exercise I'll pair: Reynolds with Dominic Cheek, Fisher with Reggie Redding, and Stokes with Maalik Wayns.  Most coaches would be happy with any of those duos as a starting point.  Clearly though there is less certainty up front.  Collectively Cunningham, Clark, and Anderson are a lot to replace.  I remain very high on this team, though, because frankly I don't think Cunningham is as big a loss as it appears.  What he did last year was very helpful to his team, and the number look good, but really he just made sure he was adequate up front to let the guard play do what it does.  It is true that combined with the other departures it leaves a hole, but the recruits seem more than adequate to fill it.  Armwood, Sutton, and Yarou were brought in just for this purpose.  Dominic Cheek is capable of helping out up front as well, even if I did count him as a guard above.  So to me the question is not if the trio up front can be replaced but how quickly the youngsters can do it.

Best Case:

I'm going to be brief here because frankly there is basically one variable to look at.  IF the freshmen step in right away they will be a phenomenal team.  I'm talking winning the Puerto Rico Season tipoff to go 12-0 out of conference and wining a Big East title good.  They get a pretty favorable set of home-and-homes, and the swing of whether they win the league or not will come down to those two games against the Mountaineers.  They do have a brutal slate of "Big East Road Opponents" above, so I believe 4-2 there is about the best any team could expect.  Going undefeated at home is not out of the question.  If somehow they manage to sweep the other favorite, that could bring them to 28-2 Overall, 16-2 Big East and I wouldn't put it beyond them to sweep the league titles.

Worst Case:

Growing pains could hurt them, but I don't see this team losing more than twice out of conference.  If one of those losses is in Puerto Rico that might make it 9-2 instead of 10-2.  They could easily slip up once against Georgetown and twice against WVU (again, those games are HUGE).  I see though at worst 4-2 against the rest of the teams visiting them.  On the road, it would be easy to slip in Louisville, at St. John's, to a Pitt team with revenge on its mind, and to either Syracuse or Cincinnati.  Still, that puts the worst I see them doing at 19-10 Overall, 10-8 Big East (and really I doubt it gets worse than 12-6, that's assuming they lose all the games they might).  Nothing that happens in the Garden should keep them from making an NCAA Tournament.

My Best Guess:

27-3 Overall, 15-3 Big East (1st place) to include cutting down those nets in Puerto Rico.  I don't see them sweeping both league titles, but they should show well in the Big East Tournament regardless.  I really think that freshman class will have people wondering who Cunningham, Clark, and Anderson were by about mid season.



Wildcats logo from achahockey.org
Jay Wright image from collegeinsider.com
Scottie Reynolds image from nj.com
OReilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Season Tip Off logo from xosnetwork.com

Connecticut Huskies Basketball Preview

This would be another good time to point out that I am no longer doing these previews in reverse order of my projected standings.  I have altered these in an attempt to get each team previewed before its first regular season game.  UConn opens play tonight at 7:30, so they have moved up the queue.

Can a Final Four team lose its top three scorers and still be in a position  to contend for a return trip?  If so, the Huskies are a prime candidate to prove it this year.  Jeff Adrien, AJ Price, Hasheem Thabeet, and key reserve Craig Austrie are gone.  It's a lot to replace, but the incoming class is stacked.  Four of the five are top 100 recruits.  At this point, though, they are just that - recruits.  So there are no guarantees.  Still, you have to appreciate the job Jim Calhoun has done in keeping quality players on this team.  Amid controversey and the lost of four of his most important players he has put together a roster that is getting top ten consideration already.  The coach has his detractors, but love him or hate him what he has meant to this program is undeniable.  He has them in a position from which they expect to make an NCAA Tournament and contend for a Big East title every year.  But how realistic are these goals this time out?  Does this roster have the juice?

Team Info

Head Coach:

Jim Calhoun, 24th season

'08-'09 Results:
31-5 Overall, 15-4 Big East
Final Four (1 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Jeff Adrien
G Craig Austrie
G Johnnie Bird
G-F Scottie Haralson
F John Lindner
G AJ Price
C Hasheem Thabeet
F Jim Veronick

Returning Players:
G Jerome Dyson (Sr.)
F-C Gavin Edwards (Sr.)
F Alex Hornat (Sr.)
C Jonathan Mandeldove (Sr.)
F Stanley Robinson (Sr.)
G Kyle Bailey (Jr.)
G Donnell Beverly (Jr.)
C Charles Okwandu (Jr.)
G Kemba Walker (So.)

Newcomers:
G-F Jamal Coombs-McDaniel
PF Ater Majok (ineligible until Spring semester)
C Alex Oriakhi
SG Darius Smith
SG Jamaal Trice

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  William and Mary, Colgate, Boston University, Harvard, Kentucky, Central Florida, Maine, Iona, @ Michigan, Texas

Big East home-and-home:  Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Louisville

Big East Home Opponents:  Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, St. John's, Marquette, DePaul, West Virginia

Big East Road Opponents:  Georgetown, Providence, Syracuse, Villanova, Rutgers, South Florida

NIT Season Tip-Off:  Connecticut opens play in this tournament against Colgate.  Win that, and they face the winner of Hofstra and Yale.  The other quarter of the bracket on their side contains LSU, Indiana State, Western Kentucky, and Milwaukee.  If they win their side of the bracket they will face most likely Duke in the championship game.

Coaches' Pick:  3rd, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

It's easy to see that there are holes to fill on this team.  But a close look at the roster produces a lot of scenarios under which most of those holes might be filled.  I'll give an example.  Hasheem Thabeet was a defensive presence and shot-blocker that comes around maybe once a decade in the college game.  They aren't going to replace that part of his game.  However, the combination of Gavin Edwards (who shot .638 from the field and .745 from the stripe last year) and Alex Oriakhi (the highest-rated of four top 100 freshmen coming in) may well make up for the rest of his production.  AJ Price averaged 14.7 points and 4.7 assists last year...but Kemba Walker's stats project nicely.  Without even considering development from a freshman to sophomore season, his numbers adjusted for the extra minutes Price played would be 11.2 and 3.7.  Criag Austrie was a very serviceable bench player, but Darius Smith and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel appear immediately capable of being that or more.  Perhaps the toughest loss to replace will be Jeff Adrien, but Gavin Edwards projects similarly to Kemba Walker in terms of comparison.  That whole scenario doesn't even take into account the midseason jolt of Ater Majok.  Obviously none of these things is a given.  They play an ambitious schedule that could give them problems early...but it could also nudge them to a great seed if they manage it well.

Best Case:

Dyson, Robinson, Walker, and an excellent class ensure that they will be a good team.  If all of the steps in the scenario I painted above fall into place, they will be an elite team.  It's hard to imagine them beating Duke, Kentucky, Michigan, AND Texas in the same season...but three of four is a real possibility.  If they win the rest of their nonleague games, well, that's just doing what they're supposed to.  That would be a collective 12-1 with three excellent wins without even considering league play.  They have a very tough slate of repeat opponents, but 4-2 or 5-1 is still believable.  It's not even beyond the realm of believability to see them go undefeated at home.  If they do that and win the road games they're supposed to, the Big East record could be as good as 15-3 or even 16-2, and that might be good enough for a conference title.  If the ball bounces right they could add a conference tournament championship as well (for a top four seed that's just three wins).  The final record there might just be 31-3 Overall, which could mean a one or two seed.

Worst Case:

If none of my scenario of filing the gaps works out, they will still be a good team.  It's hard to imagine them losing too many out of conference games, but the schedule is tough enough that 9-4 isn't totally out there.  Cincinnati and Louisville are good enough to beat them three out of four times collectively and Notre Dame might grab one behind Harangody.  At home even their worst ptobably only adds two losses on top of that.  The road schedule holds three more teams they're almost certain to beat, and there's probably another win there in them regardless.  That would leave them at 19-12, 10-8 overall and around seventh place or so.  That probably still gets them on the right side fo the bubble unless they really get embarrassed in the Garden.

My Best Guess:

25-6 Overall, 14-4 Big East (3rd place) plus perhaps a Big East championship game loss.  I'm betting on them to lose to Duke and Texas but to beat Kentucky as that team learns to play together.  There's probably a Sweet Sixteen at the very least in their future.




UConn logo from freewebs.com
Jim Calhoun image from advance.UConn.edu
Stanley Robinson image from admissions.UConn.edu
NIT logo from yalebulldogs.com
Hasheem Thabeet image from dailyradar.com

Georgetown Hoyas Basketball Preview

The Hoyas are optimistic that they can shake off last season's catastrophic finish and return to the NCAA tournament.  Can they make that optimism a reality without DaJuan Summers and Jessie Sapp?  John Thompson III and the Big East coaches seem to think so - they were picked fifth in the media day poll - but there is certainly work to do.  Junior guards Christ Wright and Austin Freeman along with sophomore big man Greg Monroe will lead the charge, but this team likes to spread the scoring around so other names will emerge as the season progresses.  Hollis Thompson and Vee Sanford headline a fairly good recruiting class which should integrate nicely.  Critics remember that Georgetown tumbled after an impressive win at Connecticut launched them into the top ten, and that that team's leading scorer is gone.  After that game the Hoyas went 6-14, including the postseason, and that run included two losses to St. John's and Cincinnati and a loss to Seton Hall as well.  So it seems that Georgetown will be something of a wild card this year - either proving that last season was an abberation or struggling against a tough slate of opponents.


Team Info

Head Coach:
John Thompson, III, 6th season

'08-'09 Results:
16-15 Overall, 7-12 Big East
NIT opening round (6 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Bryon Jansen
G Jessie Sapp
F DaJuan Summers
G-F Omar Wattad

Returning Players:
G Ryan Dougherty (Jr.)
G Austin Freeman (Jr.)
G-F Nikita Mescheriakov (Jr.)
F Julian Vaughn (Jr.)
G Chris Wright (Jr.)
G Jason Clark (So.)
C Greg Monroe (So.)
C Henry Sims (So.)

Newcomers:
SF Jerrelle Benimon
PG Vee Sanford
G Stephen Stepka
SF Hollis Thompson

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  @ Tulane, Temple, @ Savannah State, LaFayette, Mount St. Mary's, American, Butler(Jimmy V Classic), @ Washington (Wooden Classic), Old Dominion, Harvard, Duke


Big East home-and-home:  Villanova, Rutgers, Syracuse

Big East Home Opponents:  St. John's, Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

Big East Road Opponents:  DePaul, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Providence, Louisville, West Virginia

Coaches' Pick: 5th, Big East



Outlook

The Skinny:

This team is very hard to pin down because of the wild year they just had.  I do not number them among the serious contenders for a conference title, but I wouldn't be surprised with the 5th place finish the coaches predict or slightly better.  But I would be equally unsurprised if they finished in 10th or 11th.  Here's why:  last year's team did have wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Connecticut, Memphis, and Maryland..but only sixteen wins overall.  So I don't trust them.  I don't trust them to be great nor do I trust them to stink.  The roster, as I see it, is pretty thin but very good at the top.  Monroe is a stud inside and will play like one, and Wright and Freeman form a formidable backcourt.  Thompson and Sanford are going to be good, but they will need some time to develop and will make freshman mistakes.  I do think the Hoyas have found gold in lightly recruited Jerrelle Benimon - he's a do-it-all kind of player that is perfect for the system; he'll need to be coached up though.  If they want to do better than the NIT this season, though, someone else will have to step up.  The play of Clark, Vaughn, and Mescheriakov will have to improve.

Best Case:

We know Monroe, Wright, and Freeman will be a solid trio.  What we don't know is how fast the freshmen will get up to speed or what to expect from the lesser-known vets.  If everyone gets it together, this team has evidence that it can beat anyone.  What they have not shown is the grit to bear down and beat great opponents repeatedly, so I don't think a league title is in reach even under the best of circumstances.  Still, the ooc offers them three chances to beat very good opponents.  A 9-2 run through that slate would put the Hoyas in an excellent position.  If Big East play is split into thirds: The repeat opponents, the home-only and the road-only Georgetown has the schedule to manage 4-2 in all three (and perhaps 5-1 in home-only), putting them at 13-5 and perhaps around 4th or 5th place.  That would quiet the naysayers and bring them right back into the NCAA Tournament, regardless of Big East Tournament play.

Worst Case:

If the freshmen don't take to the system right away, and if (as I suspect) they have trouble getting contributions from their returning roster aside from the big three guys they could be in for another long year.  They have three top 15 teams on their nonconference schedule and could easily lose all of those plus a shocker.  Villanova and Syracuse are both capable of pulling off the sweep, although I doubt Rutgers can play with them.  Cincinnati, Seton Hall, and St. Johns (the three teams they lost five games to down the stretch last year) are all improved and all visit the Verizon Center.  I could see the Hoyas losing to all of those teams again, and losing at Pitt, Louisville, and West Virginia as well.  All in all, it could result in a record as low as 14-15 Overall, 7-11 Big East and dropping them to 11th or so in the league.

My Best Guess:

18-11 Overall, 10-8 Big East (7th place) plus a win or two in Madison Square Garden.  I have them in the NCAA Tournament but not matching the hype they have generated.  Frankly they will need to prove why they are not the same team from 2008-2009 before I really buy into them.



Georgetown from georgetown.edu

St. John's Red Storm Basketball Preview

Norm Roberts has been through a lot with this school over the last couple of years.  Right now, though, a class that was all freshmen two years ago is still intact, and he has to be feeling good about his chances to finally get the Johnnies into an NCAA Tournament.  It won't be easy, but if any St. John's roster since the league expansion has a chance, this one does.  The departures are minimal, the returning players have solid numbers, and Anthony Mason Jr. will be back soon (presumably).  A couple of guys coming in from JUCO and a pair of modest but decent recruits join the core group.  What it all means is that this team could run as deep as twelve or thirteen players and have a starting five that might fly under the radar all the way through.  There will be bumps on the road I'm sure, but it is hard not to like the makeup of this team and pull for Roberts to get them back in a position they used to be familiar with.  The first obstacle is getting Mason healthy and keeping him that way, but if they do the ceiling could be higher than most anyone realizes.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Norm Roberts, 6th season

'08-'09 Results:
16-18 Overall, 7-13 Big East
CBI opening round (4 Seed)

Departing Players:
G Julius Brown (never played)
G Matt Duell
C Tomas Jasiulionis
F Guesly Saint Aubin (never played)

Returning Players:
F Anthony Mason, Jr. (Sr.)
G Malik Boothe (Jr.)
F Justin Burrell (Jr.)
F-C Dele Coker (Jr.)
F Sean Evans (Jr.)
G Paris Horne (Jr.)
G-F DJ Kennedy (Jr.)
G John Taubeneck (Jr.)
F Rob Thomas (Jr.)
F Kevin Clark (So.)
G Quincy Roberts (So.)

Newcomers:
F Justin Brownlee (JUCO)
G Dwight Hardy (JUCO)
SF Omari Lawrence
G Malik Stith

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Long Island, St. Bonaventure, Brown, Siena, @Temple, Stony Brook, @Duke, Georgia, Fordham, Hofstra, Bryant

Big East home-and-home:  Louisville, Pittsburgh, DePaul

Big East Home Opponents:  Providence, Cincinnati, Villanova, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Marquette

Big East Road Opponents:  Georgetown, Conecticut, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida, Syracuse


Philly Hoop Group Classic:  St. John's will participate in this event, with a preliminary round game against Brown and two championship round games against Siena and Temple.  The tournament's other participants are Delaware, Virginia Tech, and The University of the Sciences in Philadelphia.

Coaches' Pick: 11th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

I will use one of my favorite stats, points per minute (ppm) to ilustrate why I'm very high on this group of athletes.  With the return of Anthony Mason, Jr. St. John's brings back six players who averaged .350 or better in ppm in their last full season of play.  They are: Mason (.461), Rob Thomas (.449), Paris Horne (.422), DJ Kennedy (.376), Sean Evans (.375), and Justin Burrell (.350).  And it isn't a situation where someone put up those numbers with little sample size - the lowest average minutes per game was Thomas's 13.6.  They lose next to nothing in terms of contributions.  Four players have moved on, but only one of those scored so much as a point for the Red Storm last season (Jasiulionis, whose ppm were .113).  Malik Boothe did not score like he was believed capable (.190 ppm in 33.7 minutes), but is someone the team thinks can improve.  Even if he doesn't, transfer Dwight Hardy is probably a better shooter and may take some of those minutes.  Their other transfer, Justin Brownlee, averaged double figures in scoring in junior college.  Dele Coker and Quincy Roberts may struggle to get minutes, but only because the team has excellent depth.  It will be interesting to see how much playing time freshmen Omari Lawrence and Malik Stith get - and what they do with it.  The biggest problem may be getting all these scorers enough minutes.  They will also have to improve on defense and rebounding over last season, but with experience and a generally bigger team that may not be as difficult as one could imagine.

Best Case:

Since I kind of gushed above, you probably already know that I think their ceiling is pretty high.  Somewhere between nine and twelve of the player above are probably capable of scoring in double figures given the minutes...which doesn't mean I expect 90-120 points a game.  I do think, though, that if they find the right rotation early they could score at will on almost anyone.  Since I don't see them playing elite defense, they will probably lose some games they shouldn't.  There are some tough games out of conference, which is why I think they will lose at least two (@ Duke and either Siena or Temple) but they should roll in most of them.  Even if reach play with that kind of mark, 9-2 probably won't make anyone take notice.  Once conference play begins, they should run DePaul off the court both times and are certainly capable of home-and-home splits against U of L and Pitt.  There is probably a cap of around 4-2 home and 3-3 road for the rest of the Big East games, but that still could bring them to a 20-9, 11-7 record and an NCAA tournament.  11-7 is probably good for about sixth place in the league.

Worst Case:

Many don't have a lot of faith in Norm Roberts's ability to get any team to the NCAA Tournament, and perhaps that's justified.  Even with this much talent, their run could get derailed in a tough league, especially with a relatively ambitious ooc set.  Maybe Mason is never what he was.  Maybe the junior class backslides a bit and doesn't get after it on defense.  Maybe the newcomers simply get out-classed in Division I.  That combination could lead to a disastrous season, at least in comparison to the potential.  A 6-5 mark is not out of the question before league play, nor is 2-4 in the home-and-homes.  It's even possible that they could win only 3 other league games as well.  That would give them a 5-13 league mark, 11-18 overall, and keep them near the bottom of the standings.  I really don't think it will get that bad, but this is a team that has a wide range of possibilities.

My Best Guess:

19-10 Overall, 10-8 Big East (8th place) plus a loss to Pitt in the Big East tournament if the standings finish where I believe they will.  If they do get at least one win in the Garden, I think that gets them in the NCAA Tournament, otherwise that might be an NIT resume.


Team logo from ecasports.com
Anthony Mason, Jr. and Norm Roberts images from Redstormsports.com
hoop group classic logo from howard-bison.com

Pittsburgh Panthers Basketball Preview

It's going to be a year of transition for the Pitt Panthers.  They have parted ways with one of the nation's best centers, one of the nation's best wing players, and one of the nation's best passers.  They bring in a top recruiting class headed by Dante Taylor.  The program is one of eight to appear in the last eight NCAA Tournaments (six of those under Jamie Dixon) but that run could be in serious jeopardy with so much talent gone.  Pitt has had successful seasons before with lesser-known players and no big stars...if they want to dance this will have to be another of those seasons.  Among Pitt fans, the outlook seems to be one of cautious optimism.  After Dixon led the United states to an Under-19 Gold Medal, there is reason to believe he can get a new group playing together and playing well quickly.  It's hard to imagine them falling to the basement in the Big East - they've been a model of consistency since Ben Howland resurrected the program at the beginning of the decade - but a top-half finish would have to be considered a success for '09-'10.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jamie Dixon, 7th season

'08-'09 Results:
31-5 Overall, 15-4 Big East
Elite Eight (1 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Tyrell Biggs
C DeJuan Blair
F Sean Brown
PG LeVance Fields
G Ryan Tiesi
F Sam Young

Returning Players:
SG Jermaine Dixon (Sr.) out first two weeks
G-F Gilbert Brown (Jr.) academically ineligible 1st semester
G Tim Frye (Jr.)
C Gary McGhee (Jr.)
G Brad Wanamaker (Jr.)
G Ashton Gibbs (So.)
F Nasir Robinson (So.)

Newcomers:
G Chase Adams (transfer, Centenary)
F Dwight Miller (RS)
PG Travon Woodall (RS)
SF Lamar Patterson
C JJ Richardson
G Nick Rivers
PF Dante Taylor
C Talib Zanna

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Wofford, Binghamton, Eastern Kentucky, Wichita State, Youngstown State, @ Duquesne, New Hampshire, @ Indiana, Kent State, Mount St. Mary's, Ohio, Robert Morris


Big East home-and-home:  Seton Hall, St. John's, West Virginia


Big East Home Opponents:  Louisville, Georgetown, DePaul, Villanova, Providence, Rutgers


Big East Road Opponents:  Syracuse, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Marquette, Notre Dame

CBE Classic:  Pitt is a regional host in this tournament, and will advance to the semifinal game against Wichita State regardless of the outcome vs. Binghamton and Eastern Kentucky.  Their final opponent here will be either Texas or Iowa in the championship or consolation game.


Coaches' Pick: 9th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:


Dante Taylor, Lamar Patterson, and Talib Zanna form the backbone of an excellent recruiting class.  The talent here is concentrated in the newcomers, though, which is a dangerous combination when trying to make an NCAA Tournament from a BCS-affiliated league.  This is even more true with Gilbert Brown out until at least January and Jermaine Dixon out for a couple of weeks.  There is more help than most realize on the way, though.  Red-shirt freshman Travon Woodall is coming along nicely at the point and his counterpart Dwight Miller looks solid as well.  Chase Adams transfers in from Centenary, where he averaged 14.6 points, 4.2 boards and 4.5 assists; he is eligible immediately.  Ashton Gibbs is only a sophomore, but is perhaps the best pure shooter Pitt has had this decade.  A lot will ride on whether Gary McGhee, Brad Wanamaker, and Nasir Robinson can give solid minutes as the youngsters learn the ropes.  So a good run is certainly possible and it's something Pitt has done before.  But they also have never had to replace so much talent at once during their recent run of successes.  I anticipate their home-and-home slate will be a major key to their success.  Seton Hall and St. John's are both trying to make their NCAA run this year (and are, consequently, the teams I have immediately behind and in front of Pitt in my projection) and West Virginia will be a tough opponent for anyone.  The nonconference slate is weak aside from a possible game against Texas so expect those six games to make or break the Panthers' run.

Best Case:

Pitt is a program that prides itself on player development.  If that happens with the returning players, it will go a long way toward ensuring success.  An NCAA Tournament season is very possible if the learning curve for the incoming talent is small.  The nonconference schedule is weak enough that even with growing pains a 12-1 mark is believable, with a loss to Texas as the only near-certain blemish.  Pitt has shown since the Petersen Events Center opened that they are capable of beating any team there; still, this team is almost guaranteed to lose a couple of games it shouldn't because of the youth.  Three of four against St. John's and Seton Hall and a split with the Mountaineers is possible and would go a long way.  In the remaining games 4-2 home and 3-3 away is probably the best that can be expected.  Still, that kind of year would be NCAA Tournament-worthy at 23-8, 11-7 with some Big East Tournament games to help with seeding.  Sixth place in the league is probably the ceiling.

Worst Case:

As a Pitt alum, this part is painful to type, but this possibility must be conceded even by the most optimistic followers.  If the returning guys can't improve the quality of their minutes, and if the young players take some time to adjust, a much worse finish is probably imminent.  Luckily there are few games out of conference that look difficult, so 10-3 or 9-4 is probably the worst to come even if they struggle.  Once league play begins, however, it is a different matter.  Gibbs, Taylor, Adams and company will probably win them a game or two they shouldn't.  Even so, a 1-5 mark in the home-and-homes is not out of the question.  There are five league teams the Panthers will probably not lose to, but the remaining seven games are all tough.  Something on the order of 7-11 in conference is a very real possibility, and that could slide them as low as 11th or 12th place.  They have a history of (mostly) playing well in the Garden, so they would probably add at least one win there.  That might not even be good enough for the NIT to come calling.

My Best Guess:

20-11 Overall, 9-9 Big East (9th place) plus two wins in the Big East tournament.  A very bubble-icious finish that I think lands them in the NIT.  This is probably about right on paper, even if I do  think they are capable of a little more.


Departing players, Ashton Gibbs, and Jamie Dixon images from post-gazette.com
Panther logo from chronicle.pitt.edu

Seton Hall Pirates Basketball Preview

Seton Hall is the sexy pick to make a move up the Big East standings after the league's well-documented departures.  There are good reasons for this, as the team certainly doesn't lack talent and experience.  Jeremy Hazell may be the best player in the Big East; he is one of only two returning players in the league to average .600 or better in points per minute (.625).  The other is Notre Dame's Luke Harangody (.681) picked by most publications as the league's preseason POY.  There is other returning talent as well, and two transfer students from other division one schools add to the depth and experience.  Only one true freshman is on this roster, a forward with good upside who may contribute off the bench.  There are critics of coach Bobby Gonzalez, though, who wonder if he can bring this team together.  Some of the newcomers ride in with a trail of problems that will need to be put aside.  Part of being a talented team in the Big East is that you have company.  As usual, there are about ten other teams that could be described as talented and who have a real shot at NCAA Tournament play.  A good team is going to finish in eleventh place in this year's standings...can Seton Hall avoid that fate?


Team Info

Head Coach:
Bobby Gonzalez, 4th season

'08-'09 Results:
17-15 Overall, 8-12 Big East
no postseason

Departing Players:
F-C John Garcia
G Paul Gause
G Pete Peregrin

Returning Players:
G Eugene Harvey (Sr.)
F Robert Mitchell (Sr.)
G Darnell Gatling (Jr.)
G Jeremy Hazell (Jr.)
F Matt Cajuste (So.)
F-C Mike Davis (So.)
F Jeff Robinson (So.)
G Jordan Theodore (So.)

Newcomers:
G Keon Lawrence (transfer, Missouri)
F Herb Pope (transfer, New Mexico State)
G Jamel Jackson (JUCO)
C Melvyn Oliver (RS)
F Ferrakohn Hall

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  St. Peter's, @ Monmouth, @ Cornell, Long Island, NJIT, Hartford, Massachussetts, VMI, Temple, Navy, @ Virginia Tech

Big East home-and-home:  Pittsburgh, Rutgers, West Virginia

Big East Home Opponents: Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, DePaul, Marquette

Big East Road Opponents: Connecticut, Georgetown, South Florida, Villanova, St. John's, Providence

Coaches' Pick: 10th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

Talent is the word of the day here.  The backcourt is stacked: Hazell is superb; Lawrence and Harvey are very good; Theodore and Jamel Jackson should give quality minutes.  The frontcourt isn't as deep but features known talents in Mitchell and Herb Pope and possibly emerging talents in Ferrakohn Hall and Melvyn Oliver.  The team should run nine deep and get a few minutes out of Mike Davis, Jeff robinson, and Matt Cajuste to boot.  The other word of the day, expectations, may be harder to satisfy.  The ceiling is pretty high, and the floor isn't especially low, but there is a reason the coaches picked them tenth.  That reason is simple: the depth of the league.  They could easily be proved wrong, but that could be said no matter which team they placed there because there are more than ten teams with talent in the conference.  So, the task of Bobby Gonzalez is to get the talent from multiple sources to work together and live up to its potential.  This is his all-important fourth season, the players are his recruits, and missing the NCAA Tournament could raise questions about his job.

Best Case:

There's not a single unwinnable game on the nonconference schedule, although even an undefeated mark before Big East play will not feature any real signature wins (except perhaps for @ Va Tech).  The home-and-home set will be huge, but if they get it together they could do as well as 5-1 losing only at West Virginia.  What's scary is that they could realistically pull off 5-1 in the six remaining home games, as well.  Given the way teams play at home, 3-3 on the rest of that road slate is probably the best to hope for.  Still, that puts their best possible run at 24-5, 13-5 and a sure thing for the NCAA tournament.  That would probably be good for fourth or fifth place in the league and a decent seed.  They would of course have the chance to improve on that seed in the Big East Tournament.

Worst Case:

Even if Gonzalez doesn't mesh his transfers and freshmen with his returning roster well, they shouldn't lose more than three or four nonleague games.  The challenges will abound, though, in league play.  They're too talented to lose to Rutgers, but could be swept by Pitt as easily as they could sweep them.  Four teams capable of winning on their court visit, and there are four tough road opponents as well.  That would put them at 6-12 in conference and as low as eleventh or twelfth place.  Even an NIT berth would be hard to justify, and it would leave them with a second straight disappointing season and with a decision to make regarding Gonzalez's future.

My Best Guess:

17-12 Overall, 8-10 Big East (10th place) plus one and posibly two wins in MSG.  I do like the talent level, but figure them for this year's Cincinnati.  They could prove me very wrong but any team I were to place here could.



Jeremy Hazell image from themoshpitt.blogspot.com
Pirates logo from blog.Syracuse.com
Keon Lawrence image from mutigers.com
NCAA tournament logo from hsbcarena.com

Syracuse Orange Basketball Preview

I had been doing these team previews counting from last to first in my projected Big East standings.  But, since the Orange open regular-season play tonight I am skipping ahead to them in an effort to presere the meaning of "Preview."  I will be readjusting the order from today on in an attempt to catch as many teams as possible before their regular season debuts.

Many are distrustful of the Orange entering the season, citing major losses to the NBA draft in the persons of Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf, and Paul Harris.  The departures don't stop there - five more from that Sweet Sixteen roster are gone.  Others, though, are high on the Orange because of their returning players and array of newcomers.  Both groups bring valid points to the discussion, making Syracuse one of the more interesting teams in the league as play opens this evening.  It is dangerous to underestimate a talented group of players coached by a man like Jim Boeheim; yet the Big East can eat unexperienced players alive at times.  Where does the balance lie?  The Le Moyne loss is taken as an omen by some, but I view it as just what it was: an exhibition.  The Orange would've loved to win, I'm sure, but ultimately it gives predictors no useful information.  I do believe that this team has probably the widest gap between its best and worst possible finishes; anywhere from fourth to twelth place or so.  I am, as we will see, leaning more toward the best case.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Jim Boeheim, 34th season

'08-'09 Results:
28-10 Overall, 14-8 Big East
Sweet Sixteen (3 seed)

Departing Players:
SG Eric Devendorf
G Kevin Drew
PG Jonny Flynn
F Paul Harris
F Kristof Ongenaet
G Jake Presutti
G Justin Thomas
C Sean Williams

Returning Players:
C Arinze Onuaku (Sr.)
G Andy Rautins (Sr.)
F Rick Jackson (Jr.)
G Scoop Jardine (So.)
F Kris Joseph (So.)
G Brandon Reese (So.)
G Nick Resavy (So.)

Newcomers:
F Wesley Johnson (transfer, Iowa State)
F Matt Tomaszewski (JUCO)
SF Mookie Jones (RS)
SF James Southerland (RS)
C DaShonte Riley
PG Brandon Triche

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Albany, Robert Morris, @ California, Cornell, Columbia, Colgate, Maine, @ Florida, St. Francis (NY), St. Bonaventure, Oakland, Memphis

Big East home-and-home:  Georgetown, Providence, Louisville

Big East Home Opponents: Pittsburgh, South Florida, Marquette, Connecticut, Villanova, St. John's

Big East Road Opponents: Seton Hall, Rutgers, West Virginia, Notre Dame, DePaul, Cincinnati


2K Sports Classic:  This tournament features predetermined semifinal matchups after the opening rounds are hosted by the four semifinal schools.  Syracuse hosts Albany and Robert Morris before playing California for the chance to take on the winner of North Carolina-Ohio State.  The losers will also meet to determine third and fourth place.


Coaches' Pick: 6th, Big East



Outlook

The Skinny:


The newcomers on this team could be viewed as getting two good recruiting classes at once.  It remains to be seen whether this will be an asset, as a boon of incoming talent that keeps them from missing a beat...or a liability, as a group of inexperienced players who can't get it together.  There is some stability in the form of Onuaku, Rautins, Rick Jackson and in my eyes Scoop Jardine as a valuable reserve.  But that new group will have a lot to say about where the Orange land in the standings.  Not all of the new guys are inexperienced.  Wes Johnson averaged 12.4 points in the Big 12, and Matt Tomaszewski has junior college experience.  Brandon Triche was long ago named the starting point guard, and while he wasn't that highly touted Boeheim's early and apparently easy decision is a good sign.  There's a lot to challenge them in their out of conference and league slates.  If I have any idea what I'm talking about they got a very fair run of Big East games with one team from the top quarter, one from the middle half, and one from the bottom quarter as the repeat foes.

Best Case:

With the inexperience, I see them finishing at best second in the tournament (which they tip off tonight).  That will give them some early and needed experience, though, and if they come out of it playing like a unit they could surprise many people.  If Onuaku and Rautins are who I think they are, that alone will get them some wins.  If Wes Johnson can step in and average 12 in the Big East, and if Triche takes well to the point, that will expand the ceiling significantly.  Rick Jackson, DaShonte Riley, and Mookie Jones may provide quality minutes as well, and if they do this will be among the deeper frontcourts in the nation.  Scoop Jardine will be a major x-factor; if his play improves a bit it could be the last piece they need to be a complete team.  If every point I mentioned above goes right, they could storm into Big East play having just one loss (to UNC or OSU in the 2K Cports Classic).  If they do that it will build them a nice tournament resume with wins over Cal, Florida, and Memphis.  They could well sweep Georgetown and Providence while splitting with Lousville, and the best case I see has them winning seven more league games to finish 12-6 in conference.  At 24-7 they would need a run in the garden only to improve their seed.

Worst Case:

The problem of course is that with so many new players, everything except for a solid contribution from Onuaku and Rautins is at least a little suspect.  Even those two could potentially regress a little.  If that happens, and they also fail to be a presence the younger guys can rely on, it could be a disastrous season.  It's not hard to imagine the Orange losing both to California and the UNC-OSU loser early.  Florida and Memphis will beat them if they are not playing their best by then, and slipups are possible against Maine or Oakland as well.  That could lead to an ooc record as bad as 8-5.  It would be equally possible for them to lose five of the home-and-home games as to win five, and to lose seven additional league games as to win seven.  The final record of 14-17 would not be much to speak of for a Boeheim team regardless of what happened in the Big East tournament.

My Best Guess:

21-10 Overall, 11-7 Big East (6th place) plus one to three wins in the Garden, depending on matchups.  This should be enough to get them a seed somewhere between 5 and 8.  I am buying them as a very good team but not as a serious contender for the conference title.


Arinze Onuaku image from fingerlakes1.com
2K Sports Classic logo from ballersnetwork.com
Boeheim lecturing image from SI.com