Intro:
It’s November, and to people like me that means one thing: college basketball. Specifically the last few years it has meant Big East basketball, and so it seems appropriate to debut my brand new sports blog in early November with a Big East Preview.
The Big East got seven bids in last year’s NCAA tournament, pulling down three number one seeds and advancing four teams to the Elite Eight and two to the Final Four. It also placed three teams in the NIT and one in the CBI, with Cincinnati declining an invitation to that tournament. It was a fairly successful season for a league some speculated would receive as many as nine or ten NCAA tournament bids. So what can we expect of this year’s version? Will the usual suspects be contending for a league title? Who’s in for a severe drop in the standings and who will make a move? I hope to answer all these questions and more.
The league will not be as deep or as thick around the middle as last year’s iteration. The mass exodus of talented players will see to that. Here’s an alphabetical list of key players that have graduated or jumped to the NBA: Jeff Adrien, Dwayne Anderson, Craig Austrie, Ryan Ayers, DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, Shane Clark, Dante Cunningham, Eric Devendorf, Weyinmi Efejuku, Anthony Farmer, LeVance Fields, Jonny Flynn, Randall Hanke, Paul Harris, Dominic James, Jonathan Kale, Kyle McAlarney, Geoff McDermott, Jerel McNeal, A.J. Price, Alex Ruoff, Jessie Sapp, DaJuan Summers, Hasheem Thabeet, Dar Tucker, Jesus Verdejo, Wesley Matthews, Mike Williams, Terrance Williams, Jeff Xavier, and Sam Young. Wow!
And yet, there is still plenty of love for Big East teams.
The AP and Coaches' Polls rank 5 and 6 teams, respectively, with eight teams receiving votes.
Gary Parrish of CBS likes seven.
Jeff Goodman of Fox is a little more reserved. The influx of freshman (and in some cases, transfer) talent makes up for a lot of the departures. With a few of the ordinarily strong programs set to reload or rebuild, a few of the less successful programs in recent years may have a chance to make some noise. None of these polls give a mention to Cincinnati or St. John’s (teams poised to make a run) or Seton Hall (a team with a lot of talent that I personally am less high on). Fewer power teams at the top I believe will lead to more NCAA bids than last year, as the eighth and ninth place teams will thus have better opportunities to build resumes.
Projecting the standings:
Each team will get its own preview in forthcoming posts, but I’ll give my bottom line here, as well as where I think each team will land in the postseason.
1.
Villanova – They’ve got the right combination of returning and incoming talent to be the favorite. They could field three starting backcourts capable of playing at this level. They lose a lot up front but have the recruiting class to fill those holes admirably.
(NCAA tournament)
2.
West Virginia – The trio of Devin Ebanks, Da’Sean Butler, and Darryl Bryant is reminiscent of Young, Blair, Fields and will probably post similar numbers. There are two reasons they aren’t the favorite in my eyes: less depth than Villanova and a penchant for getting in trouble. I don’t trust Huggins to keep the group out of off-court trouble.
(NCAA tournament)
3.
Connecticut – Few programs at any given time could lose the likes of Jeff Adrien, AJ Price, Hasheem Thabeet, and Craig Austrie and compete for a league title the very next year. Right now, Connecticut is one of those programs. Another Final Four may be out of reach, but they will be among the Big East contenders from day one.
(NCAA tournament)
4.
Cincinnati – This is one of those teams that seems to be flying under the radar, but their talent level is impressive. Deonta Vaughn will be in the running for Big East POY, helped by turning over the point to the talented Cashmere Wright. They bring in a solid recruiting class headlined by “born ready” Lance Stephenson. Don’t be surprised when they earn a high seed and make a deep run in March.
(NCAA tournament)
5.
Louisville – Earl Clark and Terrance Williams are gone, but a lot of talent is back. There is a deep (and underappreciated) backcourt rotation: Reginald Delk, Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, Preston Knowles, and Kyle Kuric all averaged .290 or better in points per minute (PPM), and they are joined by Peyton Silva and Mike Marra. Terrance Jennings, Samardo Samuels, and Rakeem Buckles will hold it down up front.
(NCAA tournament)
6.
Syracuse – Arinze Onuaku was the least appreciated big man in last year’s stacked Big East. He’ll get a chance to show off what he’s got in a depleted league, alongside transfer Wesley Johnson (who averaged 12.4 points in the Big 12) and freshman Mookie Jones. The backcourt is a concern, but with Jim Boeheim already naming freshman Brandon Triche the starting PG perhaps less than it appears.
(NCAA tournament)
7.
Georgetown – A lot of media sources are ranking this team…but I’m not buying it. I do think they will improve on last year’s finish, but mostly because of how much they underperformed that year. It will be hard to lose DaJuan Summers and Jessie Sapp from a team that lost in the first round of the NIT and make any serious noise. Still, Chris Wright, Austin Freeman, and Greg Monroe are a talented core. Much will ride on the freshman class, especially Hollis Thompson.
(NCAA tournament)
8.
St. John’s – Norm Roberts has more talent here than he gets credit for, and it has grown together. Anthony Mason, Jr. is out for a few weeks, and how soon he returns will directly correlate with how much this team achieves. Mason, DJ Kennedy, Sean Evans, Paris Horne, Justin Burrell, and Rob Thomas all average .340 points per minute or better…no other Big East team returns six players with such scoring efficiency. The Johnnies add two JUCO transfers and a top 100 recruit. As long as Mason gets healthy, they should finish in the top half this year.
(NCAA tournament)
9.
Pittsburgh – Talent? Check. Experience? Not so much. Jamie Dixon and this program have proven that they can bring guys along and win without star power, but there is a lot to make up for this time out. I think they could finish anywhere from 6 to 11 in this conference. They will improve as the year goes on, but will it be fast enough?
(NIT)
10.
Seton Hall – Here is a team that will either make me look very wise or very foolish. Jeremy Hazell is one of the best returning players in the Big East. No one of real consequence is leaving, and transfers Herb Pope (New Mexico State) and Keon Lawrence (Missouri) will make them better. I still see them as the Hazell show, though, and think that all of the rosters I placed above them just happen to be superior. There is a lot of talent here, enough to maybe prove me very wrong.
(NIT)
11.
Notre Dame – Luke Harangody is going to put up monster numbers. And yet, Notre Dame will still struggle to climb the standings. If Harangody’s gifts weren’t enough to help Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers to the NCAA tournament, than what can the team achieve without the other two? The roster is much thinner around the big man this year, despite the transfer of Ben Hansbrough and a decent freshman class.
(NIT)
12.
Marquette – I love what Buzz Williams is doing with this program. They lose too much, though, to be a factor in the coming season. James, Matthews, and McNeal are gone, and they have already lost an excellent freshman to injury. The recruiting is going very well, so they’ll be back, but I think the CBI is about the best they can hope for. Don’t be surprised if they turn down an invite from any tournament below the NIT, though.
(CBI)
13.
South Florida – The Bulls were a much different team once they added Gus Gilchrist last year. Unfortunately, that happened at about the same time the competition stiffened considerably, so it was hard to tell. They lose little but bring in little, leading most to believe they will be the same team. I think they will be improved with a season together to gel. Still, much higher than thirteenth is a bit ambitious.
(no postseason)
14.
Providence – Nine players from the 2008-2009 squad are gone, leaving two talented players to supervise a brand new roster. A couple of JUCO transfers may give them a little life, but Sharaud Curry’s best chance at an NCAA tournament has come and gone. Now they’ll be lucky to stay out of the basement. This bunch might become a worthwhile group with time, but they will earn it with a tough go this season.
(no postseason)
15.
Rutgers – I once thought that Mike Rosario and Gregory Echinique could become the centerpieces of a very good team.That just doesn’t look like it will be the case. Beyond those two, this roster is anemic. Unless there are a lot of surprises, this group will be lucky to win five Big East games. I question where their scoring will come from, they don’t have many great rebounders, and they turn the ball over too much. Perhaps JUCO transfer James Beatty will offer some help.
(no postseason)
16.
DePaul – I have tried to summon some optimism for this team, but the reality is that Jerry Wainwright and his team are headed for another last-place finish unless something very unexpected happens. Mac Koshwal is very talented but was puzzlingly inconsistent last year, as was his departed teammate Dar Tucker. This is probably the hottest of hot seats in the country.
(no postseason)
Individual Awards:
It doesn’t usually fall out by position, but I’m going to draw it up that way for simplicity’s sake. The talent level joining the league is outstanding as well, so much so that I had trouble narrowing it down to a freshman team. Instead, I prepared a “freshmen to watch” section, alphabetical by team.
First Team All-Conference
G Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall
G Deonta Vaughn, Cincinnati
F Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia
F Lazar Hayward, Marquette
C Luke Harangody, Notre Dame (Conference POY)
Second Team All-Conference
G Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
G Jerome Dyson, Connecticut
F Samardo Samuels
F Anthony Mason, Jr.
C Arinze Onuaku
Third Team All-Conference
G Sharaud Curry, Providence
G Mike Rosario, Rutgers
F Devin Ebanks, West Virginia
F Yancy Gates, Cincinnati
C Greg Monroe, Georgetown
Freshmen to Watch
SF Lance Stephenson – Cincinnati (Conference FOY)
C Alex Oriakhi, G-F Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, SG Darius Smith – Connecticut
SF Hollis Thompson – Georgetown
PG Peyton Silva , PF Rakeem Buckles – Louisville
SF Erik Williams, PF Jeronne Maymon – Marquette
PF Dante Taylor, C Talib Zanna – Pittsburgh
C DaShonte Riley – Syracuse
SF Dominic Cheek, PF Isaih Armwood, PF Mouphtaou Yarou – Villanova
SG Dalton Pepper – West Virginia
There are a couple of final things worth noting about freshmen. First, as the Friars’ roster is bursting with freshmen, certainly some of them will also be worth watching; I am unsure which will shine, though. Second, there are several redshirt freshmen who should fare well: UConn’s Ater Majok, Syracuse’s Mookie Jones, Pitt’s Travon Woodall, and Cincinnati’s Cashmere Wright.
Wrapup:
Even in a "down" year seven or eight teams from the Big East should make the NCAA tournament. Teams one to eleven in my projections are talented enough to dance if they hit their stride at the right time. Many teams will rely heavily on freshmen, though, so consistency will be a concern.
Every Big East team save Seton Hall is participating one preseason event or another, and the league's representatives should show well overall. For a comprehensive list of preseason tournaments, challenges, and invitationals follow this link.
Big East basketball is nearly upon us. As always, it will be a wild ride from now until March.
Buzz Williams, 2nd season
G Maurice Acker (Sr.)
Old Spice Classic: Marquette opens this tournament against Xavier; their second opponent will be Creighton or Michigan in the winners' or losers' bracket. They will also play a third game against Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, or host Iona.
The Golden Eagles will almost certainly be led by senior forward Lazar Hayward. No other returning player averaged as many as six points, and of those players only Jimmy Butler really capitalized on his minutes. There is a significant amount of incoming talent, but the premature loss of Cadougan (probably the best of the bunch) is going to be felt. Hayward will probably average something like 19 and 10. The duo of JUCO transfers were both selected as first team All-Americans in NJCAA, so it's a safe bet that they will produce in the NCAA as well. Erik Williams, Jeronne Maymon, and Youssoupha Mbao will probably mature into solid players, and how fast that happens will be something worth following. If they hit their stride right away they could still finish in the top half of the conference...but the more likely scenario has them taking their lumps this year only to completely surprise those who don't pay attention next.
