MLB Schedule-Tweaking

STLB is back!  Today's topic: ideal baseball.  Purists, please don't hate.

Introduction and Reasoning (See also: Common Sense)


The scuttlebutt has it that Commissioner Bud Selig is considering an expansion of the playoffs.  This would be a terrible idea, if you ask me, but it got me thinking about what could be changed, schedule-wise, to benefit the game.  I started with something that's bugged me since I was old enough to know what baseball was.  With over 150 games a year, it is absolutely inexcusable that a team doesn't see all twenty-nine others at least once a year.  The number of division games (my Orioles played 72 in 2010, or 44.4% of the schedule) is absurd.  None of the other major pro sports come close: The NFL has six of sixteen games within the division (37.5%), an NHL team plays twenty-four of eighty-two against division foes (29.3%), and the NBA plays just sixteen of eighty-two (19.5%).  Perhaps the most significant impetus for a regular-season scheduling change?  The MLB schedule doesn't even approximate balance, skewing both division and wild-card races.


There are a number of challenges to address with MLB scheduling.  For one, since all games are played in series, a block of days is needed for each matchup.  Games cannot conflict with other sports in some cities, or traffic (and in some instances stadium-sharing) issues can arise.  For the present scheduling format to work, the divisions must be unequal in size because to have an odd number of teams in each league would require an off day every day for at least one team per league. This would not be possible without significantly lengthening the season.  And yet, the uneven divisions themselves present problems.  I believe that the most elegant solution to most of the above problems, scheduling and otherwise, is an expansion of interleague play through the entire six-month regular season, accompanied by a minor realignment of divisions.


Playing Everyone


A 162-game schedule that features games against all possible opponents and a reasonable number of division games could be achieved without a division realignment, so I'll walk through that first.  Remember, though, that this will require tweaks at the end because of variable division sizes.

AL East and Central:

• Fourteen Division games per opponent, seven home and seven away consisting of one three-game and one four-game series in each stadium. (56 games)
• Six games per remaining AL opponent, three home and three away (54 games, running total 110)
• One three-game series against each NL team, alternating home and away each season (48 games, running total 158)

AL West:

• Fourteen Division games per opponent, as above (42 games)
• Six games per remaining AL opponent, as above (60 games, running total 102)
• Three games per NL opponent, as above (48 games, running total 150)

NL East and West:

• Fourteen Division games per opponent, seven home and seven away consisting of one three-game and one four-game series in each stadium (56 games)
• Six games per remaining NL opponent, three home and three away (66 games, running total 122)
• One three-game series against each AL team, alternating home and away each season (42  games, running total 164)

NL Central:

• Fourteen Division games per opponent, as above (70 games)
• Six games per remaining NL opponent, as above (60 games, running total 130)
• Three games per AL opponent, as above (42 games, running total 172)

Adjustment to 162 games:

• For AL East and Central, expand four series against league but non-division opponents to four games (158 + 4 = 162)
• For AL West, expand to 18 division games per opponent, nine home and nine road (150 + 4x3 = 162)
• For NL East and West, drop two series against league but non-division opponents to two games (164 - 2 = 162)
• For NL Central, drop all division series to three games, playing each opponent twelve times (172 - 2x5 = 162)

Realignment Makes Sense


As mentioned above, the problem with realignment has been that a 15-15 arrangement would create an impossible scheduling resolution under the current format.  If MLB were to expand again, a 16-16 arrangement would still involve uneven divisions unless those divisions were split four ways or lumped into pairs.  A similar problem would arise if the league were downsized to 14-14.  The thing to understand here is that if interleague play spanned the full MLB season, there would no longer be a reason to stand at 16-14 with 4, 5, and 6-team divisions.  There would also be a great benefit, in terms of scheduling, to create even-sized leagues and divisions, because rather than needing four separate scheduling formats as shown above, baseball would need just one, and with fewer "tweaks."

Who goes?  Well, the NL Central would have to say goodbye to someone, and since Houston is in the Central while Texas is in the West, they're the clear choice.  (This would save on travel budgets and fuel, too!)  But putting them straight into the AL West has its problems, because you'd have a situation where both Texas teams are in the same league, a kind of setup MLB likes to avoid.  So, Houston to the NL West.  This requires a second move, and two candidates seem equally good choices to me: either Colorado or Arizona to the AL West.  I don't think it matters which, though fans of those two clubs would probably feel differently.

The Schedule Format:

• Fourteen division games per opponent, seven home and seven away, consisting of a three-game and four-game set in each stadium (56 games)
• Six games against each remaining League opponent, three home and three away (60 games, running total 116)
• Three games against each nonleague opponent, alternating home and away series for each opponent each year (45 games, running total 161)
• Adjust to a four-game series against the nonleague "rival" for that 162nd game.

Simple and elegant, no?  Now you have even divisions.  Your team plays everyone, which is better for out-of-market fans and for national exposure.  You visit every major league stadium at least once every two years.  No more two-game series, and a limited number of four-game series.  There are still 56 division games, or 34.5%, which is second only to the NFL.  The schedule is as balanced as it is possible for a schedule of this magnitude to be.  One thing remains, and that is a listing of who exactly those interleague rivals are.  Some are obvious, others semi-obvious, and the last few are forced by the former:

Yankees-Mets
White Sox-Cubs
Angels-Dodgers
Athletics-Giants
Rays-Marlins
Rangers-Astros
Orioles-Nationals

Twins-Brewers
Indians-Pirates
Tigers-Reds
Royals-Cardinals
Rockies-Diamondbacks

Mariners-Padres
Red Sox-Braves
Blue Jays-Phillies

Mega-Conference Mayhem? Part II

Basketball (The Spare Parts)

I love college basketball, so calling it "the spare parts" hurts. That's how it'll be treated, though, so to be honest in my process I have to approach it that way. I am going to try to treat basketball as thoroughly as I did football, but close to 350 teams is a lot. It is worth some effort, though, to establish what might happen to the Big East's basketball-only members once the football schools vanish...and what the fallout from all of this might be.

As with yesterday's football section, please understand that there is a lot of "what I'd like to see happen" and very little of "what I predict will happen." Since I'm 99% sure that the ideal football scenarios I described won't even approximate reality, we'll never know if the basketball side would turn out my way or not.


Step One - The Big East Survives (Really?):

I admit that this may be the least realistic part of my scenario. I am a huge fan of Big East basketball, and so my thinking on this is likely as tinged with bias as any topic save my own alma mater. I have heard the argument that without the football revenue, the Big East could not exist. That makes sense, except that there are a whole boatload of Basketball-only conferences. The Big East has a leg up on them in that it already has capital from football sources.

Taking just the seven basketball-only members (excluding Notre Dame) there is a lot of basketball tradition - and a pretty good start to a conference in its own right. DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova...every name either has a history of greatness that could be revived with the right leadership (DePaul, St. John's, etc.) or is currently enjoying a period of greatness (Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova). The "Big East" label, and that core group, should be enough to entice some of the more prestigious "mid-major" teams to join up. Some of the ideal teams - Memphis and Temple and perhaps East Carolina and UCF - have already been swallowed up in the football pandemonium. That still leaves some great programs ripe for the picking and probably antsy for a move, though.

Dayton and Xavier are obvious choices from the A-10. Given that the Big East has established a precedent of not caring about geography, Butler springs to mind as another clear choice, not to mention a knee-jerk favorite. At that point it gets a little dicier. UAB and Kent State would be quality additions, but how committed would they be to their new football homes? Does the Big East dig further into the A-10, scavenge the leftovers from CUSA, or try to grab some of the more respected programs from the less recognized leagues in the East? I don't see them expanding into Texas for UTEP or Houston. A partial solution could be UMass for their history and St. Joseph's for the Big Five matchup with Villanova. I'd round that out with George Mason and VCU. The final two spots, failing UAB and Kent State, could be given to George Washington and someone else..Charlotte? Rhode Island? Vermont? Duquesne? It's kind of a crap shoot.  Call it Duquesne to make two even divisions.

East
Georgetown
George Mason
George Washington
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
VCU
UMass

West
Butler
Dayton
DePaul
Duquesne
Marquette
St. Joseph's
Xavier
Villanova

It's not perfect.  It isn't nearly the powerhouse it once was, and it would take time for it to be as competitive in basketball as the five neo-BCS Goliaths...but I think that's about the best large conference that could be assembled with the remaining teams.  It's riddled with programs with potential and histories of greatness.


Step Two - Finding a home for the A-10 Stragglers:

At this point, the remaining Atlantic Ten teams would be at something of a loss. Here's what that conference would temporarily look like:

Charlotte
Fordham
La Salle
Rhode Island
Richmond
Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure

Not much of a conference. Fortunately for those schools, most of them have what seem like obvious new homes. The New England-heavy America East would be a wonderful place for URI and the New York schools (Fordham and St. Bonaventure). La Salle isn't a perfect fit, but they would likely be welcome as well. Then, what better place for a school in the former Confederate capital and a North Carolina school than the Big South? St. Louis is a bit of a poser.  They would fit well geographically, of course, in the Missouri Valley Conference. But would the MVC welcome them?  In a period of such conference turmoil I would lean toward yes. If not, the Atlantic Sun would be a real possibility.


Step Three - Fighting for the Patriot League:

With this conference down to 6 teams, and two of its identifying programs gone for greener pastures, the conventional wisdom would be that this conference would fold. I think, though, that a more radical solution would be in order. The brass of the league might propose a merger with the Colonial. Further, to replace Army and Navy in the "patriotic" category I believe they would invite VMI and Citadel. The league would remain thematically appropriate, and swell to the size that the conferences are all tending toward.  This would form a modern Patriot league of:

American
Bucknell
Citadel
Colgate
Delaware
Drexel
Hofstra
Holy Cross
James Madison
Lafayette
Lehigh
Northeastern
Old Dominion
Towson
VMI
William and Mary

You'll note that Georgia State and UNC-Wilmington are out of the mix; this is primarily because I don't think the Patriot would want 18 teams, and the 16 programs above seem like the best fits, both thematically and geographically.


Step Four - The Missouri Valley Exerts Some Force:

The Valley has the reputation that at this point in such a wild scenario, any remaining school they invited wouldn't hesitate. The question, then, becomes: who would they invite? St. Louis seems like an obvious first choice, as mentioned above. After the Billikens, there are a number of directions they could go. Their most crucial decision it how committed they are to their regional identity versus the quality of the programs they're willing to accept. I don't see them expanding beyond the six states already occupied; neither do I see them inviting a program they evaluate and find wanting. There are eleven schools up for grabs in those states: SIU-Edwardsville, Southeast Missouri State, Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, UMKC, Loyola (IL), Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso, IPFW, IUPUI, and Chicago State.

If they want to get to sixteen schools, it would be possible for them to do so without expanding the region that their current schools belong to by so much as a mile. To to accomplish this they would need to take, in addition to St. Louis: Edwardsville, Southeast Missouri St., Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, and UMKC. However, I don't see them making as dubious a move as bringing in a branch campus of a regional school that's already a league member. Eliminating that school from consideration would mean the league would have to expand geographically as well as in number, so from that decision forward all schools would have to be considered on an even playing field.

The next move to eliminate would be a dip into the brand new Great West Conference for Chicago State.  Beyond that, I won't pretend to have any insight into the relative strengths of the programs, and admit that my choices here are somewhat arbitrary. I'll posit a 16-team MVC that looks like this:

Bradley
Creighton
Drake
Eastern Illinois
Evansville
Illinois State
Indiana State
Missouri State
Northern Iowa
Saint Louis
Southeast Missouri State
Southern Illinois
UMKC
Valparaiso
Western Illinois
Wichita State

That alignment doesn't necessarily make the MVC any better, but it does keep them up to speed with regard to the number of revenue sources they can tap.  I see them as somewhat unique in not really desiring to branch out into new TV markets, because their regional identity is strong.


Step Five - Cleanup:


The remaining conferences would certainly be trying to attain a larger size (except for the Ivy League) to meet with the new conventional setting. The more prestigious leagues are more or less aligned at this point, so I don't think there would be a lot of hesitation in swallowing up the independents, Great West teams, and the leftovers from the Colonial and Sun Belt.

Perhaps the "duh" move in all this is Cal State Bakersfield to the all-California Big West. Chicago State to the Horizon is also something that fits well without much thought. The Big Sky would probably like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Denver...and those programs would more than likely fall in line. Utah Valley State would likely come along for the ride. The MAAC and NJIT would probably be a good fit. The Southland and SWAC would likely jockey for the remaining three Sun Belt Schools; I have a slight preference for New Orleans in the SWAC with Arkansas Little Rock and South Alabama joining the Southland. The SWAC, feeling pressure to keep pace with its local rival, might then be maneuvered into inviting Houston Baptist and Texas-Pan American. The Southern Conference probably has more drawing power than the MEAC, so Savannah State, North Carolina Central, Winston-Salem, Georgia State, and UNC-Wilmington will probably find their new homes there. The MEAC could probably land Longwood, though - not that that would make them feel much better. Seattle to the West Coast Conference would leave SIU-Edwardsville as the lone homeless program (for now). Even as I type this sentence, I've not yet decided what to do with them.


Step Six - Dissolution and Consolidation:



First, there are two conferences that would stand little chance of surviving all of this: The Ohio Valley and the Summit. Their teams would need new homes. The Tennessee schools (this includes Austin Peay, remember) and Jacksonville State would round out the Atlantic Sun nicely. The Horizon could swallow up IUPUI, IPFW, and Oakland with minimal effort. The Kentucky schools (E Kentucky, Morehead State, and Murray State) to a slightly desperate Big South would be a high probability move.

Here's where I need to apply the breaks. I have been setting up some conferences that I don't think will really continue to exist. All of this is, after all, a more fluid process than the series of steps I'm describing. As such, the Big West, Big Sky, and MAAC as they would "exist" at this point in my intellectual exercise are mere placeholders. I don't believe that they have the strength to all survive in anything approximating their present forms, even as they try to make overtures to new schools. In the case of the MAAC it's two few quality programs and too many conferences in the area. For the other two, it's the West Coast Conference and its pair of heavyweights throwing every piece of effort they can into keeping up with the Joneses.

Gonzaga, and to a lesser extent St. Mary's, are a pair of great programs that thus far have been getting the shaft. Sadly, this is one of the few pieces of my little scenario that I see as a near inevitability. Under this kind of pressure, the East Coast schools that get left out WILL try to consolidate to form another basketball-only superconference, or at least another MVC. Gonzaga and the few other programs of real quality out west not already in a BCS league will want to make a counter move, but there simply aren't enough schools with enough basketball tradition and/or present firepower to make that happen. In the absence of that, the West Coast Conference, under pressure from its two most recognized names, will try to invite every good program it can get. This would start with, I believe, Pacific, Sacramento State, and Portland State. Any program beyond those three would probably water down the average quality of WCC teams, but I don't see that league being satisfied with twelve members in a world of behemoth associations. Weber State, Northern Arizona, and Northridge are probably the next three best. I would guess the WCC's aggression would end there.

What we're left with is a group of 21 teams (not counting Centenary, who is way off in the East) and two half-alive conferences (see also: a big mess). The Horizon league would probably gracefully accept Oral Roberts to expand their viewing area, dropping the number to an equally unmanageable 20. If the WCC extends an olive branch to, say, Long Beach State, we've chipped it down to 19. For now, just for the sake of argument, let's say that the remaining Big Sky, Big West, and Summit teams amalgamate into an unprecedented, 19-team "Great Western Sky." This is partly for convenience, because frankly some of these teams - remember, I added some independents and Great West members earlier - will probably not survive as D-IA Programs. Edwardsville is now joined for now by another homeless in Centenary.

This brings us very near to the end of the madness. The MAAC, at 11 teams counting NJIT, just doesn't have many programs of significant quality to hold it together 4 or 5 teams short of the new standard league size. The first step in its demise would probably be Fairfield to the America East; my second confidence pick would be Loyola (MD) to the MEAC.  Ideally, the nine schools that are left (all of them in New York) would be split to bring each of the following leagues -  the MEAC, the America East, and the Northeast - to sixteen teams apiece.  I'll call it this way: Siena and Niagara to the America East; Marist, Rider, and Manhattan to the MEAC; and Iona, Canisius, St. Peter's, and NJIT to the NEC.

This leaves just two small pieces of business: finding a home for poor, forgotten, SIU Edwardsville and Centenary. Glancing across a page with all of the new conferences laid out, each has a fitting home should the conference make the offer. The Horizon League would reach a respectable fourteen team mark with Edwardsville; The SWAC would get there by inviting Centenary. Both schools fit with those leagues regionally and would slide into several natural rivalries. Heck, some of those rivalries might already exist...I'm not well-versed enough in mid-major basketball to know.


Wrap-Up of the Basketball Landscape:

What on Earth is the result of all that I mentioned above and in the previous post? We're left with twenty-three basketball leagues ranging in size from eight to nineteen teams. The vest majority of these leagues, though, are either fourteen or sixteen teams strong. You may have noticed that I've said next to nothing about the Ivy League. That's because, for the purposes of expansion and realignment they can be considered not to exist. They aren't accepting anyone new. They aren't kicking anyone out. They aren't folding. Since they have different rules for the postseason anyway, they don't matter as the low outlier in conference size. The Great Western Sky, on the other end of the spectrum, doesn't matter as an outlier because they have several programs which could easily slide out of Division 1-A in five or fewer years.

Below I'll list the conferences and their members that have not yet appeared either yesterday or today. Those I have already included are, in alphabetical order: ACC, Big 14, Big East, Bigger Ten, Gulf Coast Area Conference, Missouri Conference, New MAC, Patriot, PCC, SEC, and WAC/MWC. The Ivy League is excluded below because it experienced no changes.
 

America East	Atlantic Sun	Big South	Great Western Sky
Albany	Austin Peay	Charleston Southern	Cal Poly
Binghamton	Belmont	Charlotte	Cal State Bakersfield
Boston University	Campbell	Coastal Carolina	Cal State Fullerton
Fairfield	East Tennessee State	Eastern Kentucky	Denver
Fordham	Florida Gulf Coast	Gardner-Webb	Eastern Washington
Hartford	Jacksonvile	High Point	Idaho State
La Salle	Jacksonville State	Liberty	Montana
Maine	Kennesaw State	Morehead State	Montana State
New Hampshire	Lipscomb	Murray State	North Dakota
Niagara	Mercer	Presbyterian	North Dakota State
Rhode Island	North Florida	Radford	Northern Colorado
Siena	Stetson	Richmond	South Dakota
St. Bonaventure	Tennessee State	Winthrop	South Dakota State
Stony Brook	Tennessee Tech	UNC-Asheville	Southern Utah
UMBC	Tennessee Martin		UC Davis
Vermont	USC Upstate		UC Irvine
			UC Riverside
			UC Santa Barbara
			Utah Valley State

 

Horizon	MEAC	Northeast	SoCon
Chicago State	Bethune-Cookman	Bryant	Appalachian State
Cleveland State	Coppin State	Canisius	Charleston
Detroit	Delaware State	Central Conn St.	Chattanooga
Green Bay	FAMU	Fairleigh Dickinson	Davidson
Illinois Chicago	Hampton	Iona	Elon
IPFW	Howard	Long Island	Furman
IUPUI	Longwood	Monmouth	Georgia Southern
Loyola (IL)	Loyola (MD)	Mount St. Mary's	Georgia State
Milwaukee	Manhattan	NJIT	North Carolina Central
Oakland	Marist	Quinnipiac	Samford
Oral Roberts	Maryland Eastern Shore	Robert Morris	Savannah State
SIU-Edwardsville	Morgan State	Sacred Heart	UNC-Greensboro
Wright State	Norfolk State	St. Francis (NY)	UNC-Wilmington
Youngstown State	North Carolina A&T	St. Francis (PA)	Western Carolina
	Rider	St. Peter's	Winston-Salem
	South Carolina State	Wagner	Wofford

 

Southland	SWAC	West Coast
Arkansas Little Rock	Alabama A&M	Cal State Northridge
Central Arkansas	Alabama State	Gonzaga
Lamar	Alcorn State	Long Beach State
McNeese State	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Loyola Marymount
Nicholls State	Centenary	Northern Arizona
Northwestern State	Grambling State	Pacific
Sam Houston State	Houston Baptist	Pepperdine
South Alabama	Jackson State	Portland
Southeastern Louisiana	Mississippi Valley State	Portland State
Stephen F. Austin	New Orleans	Sacramento State
Texas A&M CC	Prairie View A&M	San Diego
Texas Arlington	Southern	San Francisco
Texas San Antonio	Texas Pan-American	Santa Clara
Texas State	Texas Southern	Seattle
		St. Mary's
		Weber State

Taking the time to glance back at the above, I find that I am satisfied.My only regret to this format would be the failure to establish a western basketball-only league like the new Big East.  This means that just about everyone would be happy with the exceptions of Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and a couple of similar schools.  As with the football scenario, though, there are a number of positive consequences.

1. The new arrangement of teams groups them in ways that make sense geographically, academically, and thematically while also working for the purposes of athletics.
2. All teams are part of a conference.
3. Almost all of the conferences are similar in size, and those that aren't don't need to be.
4. There would only be 23 auto-bids to the new, 68-team NCAA tournament format.  This would virtually ensure that the only "bad" teams in the field would be playing in the play-in games.  Hopefully that would open the door for smaller schools rather than allow sub-.500 power conference teams in.

I hope I've kept a few college sports fans entertained with this intellectual exercise. I would love to see things shake down close to this way, or stop with two moves: Notre Dame to the Big Ten and Memphis to the Big East.

Mega-Conference Mayhem? Part I

Conference Realignment is the talk of the college sports world, here in the lull between the two biggest sports seasons. The scuttlebutt seems to be that the Big Ten would like to get to 16 teams ideally, and that they have offered(?) Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, and Rutgers an informal invite. If the Big Ten does get to sixteen...SIXTEEN football teams, a lot of other things would certainly shake down. Below is my attempt at an ideal situation...a mix of what I think might happen and what I'd like to see happen. This is not meant to be predictive, so please don't read it that way.  I'm going to start with football, and soon I will follow it up with a perhaps futile exercise in creating the ideal possible landscape for basketball, as well.

Football (The Driver, The Frame, and The Engine)

Before proceeding, I want to reiterate that this is NOT what I think will happen. There are financial considerations about which I don't possess nearly enough knowledge to predict these things accurately. Some of what I say might be entirely out of the question. I'm just having fun with it, because it's a fascinating situation which I feel merits discussion. On to the content!


Step One - The Big Ten satisfies its appetite:

The instigator of the mayhem, the Big Ten becomes the Bigger Ten by getting its teams to bite. Chances are slim that Notre Dame will join in, but if the kind of realignment that I'm about to describe does start happening, and the Irish AD sees which way the wind is blowing, it might be enough to convince them that joining up is the only way to go. If we accept that premise, the Big Ten adds Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Pittsburgh to get to that sixteen team plateau. Here's how I'd like to see it line up:

Division A 
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio State
Purdue

Division B 
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Wisconsin

Some of these groupings are obvious - others nearly impossible to satisfy all teams. For example, Michigan State and Michigan must be together, as must Ohio State and Michigan. Another such trio is Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue...and yet a third is Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. Notre Dame would like to be paired with almost everyone, so anywhere they're placed removes a rivalry. It would be nice to keep Missouri with Nebraska and Pitt with Rutgers, but all of the newcomers in one division doesn't work. So, the above is the closest approximation to an equitable situation, in my opinion.


Step Two - The Fate of the Big 12 and Big East:

Bottom line, the Big Twelve just might have the staying power in Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, OK State, and Kansas to survive the raid as a football conference. The Big East simply doesn't. It will fold like my simile skills right now. The Big Twelve will survive - and expand - IF the SEC doesn't step in to poach Texas and Oklahoma. I'm hoping that doesn't happen, because I'd hate to see the Texas and Oklahoma schools broken up. I don't know that the Big Twelve has enough viable invites to get to 16, but I think 14 is attainable. The teams I see them adding easily are TCU, Memphis, and Louisville. The last is wishy-washy...I would say Boise State but I see them going elsewhere. That leaves me considering Nevada or perhaps a Mountain West Team. Cincinnati could be the team. Suddenly in my thought process, though, a new team has jumped up and grabbed me. It's one I hadn't considered before, because I thought no one would leave their league (drumroll)  Vanderbilt.  I give you the Big 14:

Division A
Baylor
Colorado
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M

Division B
Kansas
Kansas State
Memphis
Louisville
Texas Tech
TCU
Vanderbilt


The travel arrangements are a little worrisome, but I think that setup would at least be passable. Grouping Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Louisville together minimizes the problem somewhat. Awkward trips to Texas, Oklahoma, or Colorado for those three are unavoidable though. The Big East's football schools are now down to West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut, and South Florida, for those who are counting.


Step Three - The SEC keeps pace:

The SEC and its football pride would not stand for being outdone by the Big Ten. They're used to being the biggest and baddest, and they want to stay that way. There are teams they covet, and all of them would be willing to bolt if asked. I see five spots and five obvious teams to fill them: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia. So how does it set up?

SEC East
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
Miami
South Carolina
Tennessee

SEC West
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

That's quite a behemoth.  The ACC is in trouble if this happens, but that'll be addressed in my next step...


Step four - The ACC gets frantic:

Poached of some of its more desirable programs, the ACC is now left with a stark choice:  dissolve or add some new schools. I think the answer is clear, because there are plenty of football/basketball programs left in the East. The first move would be to absorb the remaining Big East schools: Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Syracuse. An invite to Army and Navy would clean up the Independents and get the ACC to thirteen teams, not to mention show some respect for the service academies. Here the ACC would be faced with an interesting decision:  do they try to get to sixteen by adding mediocre programs, add one mediocre program, or stay at an unbalanced thirteen? My gut tells me they'd go for the full complement of sixteen in a "throw 'em at the wall and see what sticks," approach. Rounding out the league, I like Temple, East Carolina, and UCF.

Atlantic
Army
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Temple
Wake Forest

Coastal
Central Florida
Connecticut
Duke
East Carolina
Navy
North Carolina
Syracuse
Virginia

That actually doesn't look like a bad conference.  It might be a little marginalized in football what with the service academies and Temple, but I think those programs are respectable enough.  In basketball it would remain a wonderfully strong league.


Step Five - The Pac 10 reluctantly joins the party:

Pac Ten purists would love to remain at ten teams and only ten teams. They like history. Faced with the four behemoths above, however (and a healthy dose of East Coast Bias - at least in terms of coverage) they would have no choice but to reach out to other quality programs. I don't anticipate them leaping to a full sixteen, but I think four programs do bring to the table quality in both sports and academics. The Pac could hit up the Mountain West for BYU, UNLV, and Utah...and could extend a much-deserved offer to Boise State. I hate to suggest this, for fear of West Coast wrath, but I think a name change would be in order. Dare I say, "the Pacific Coast Conference"?

North
Boise State
BYU
Oregon
Oregon State
Utah
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Stanford
UCLA
UNLV
USC

So there you have it:  five mega-conferences with an even bigger stranglehold on the BCS, or on whatever succeeds it. There is some cleanup left to do before moving on to basketball, but the above teams would clearly be the "haves" and the rest would feel like an afterthought. I would assume that some of the poached smaller conferences would amalgamate - also into fairly large units - and that is step six.


Step Six - Mid-major consolidation:

As much as I hate the term mid-major, it applies here, and perhaps more than ever before. The teams that remain will be marginalized in ways I'd rather not see happen. If expansion is a reality, though, then that reality will leave a lot of teams in  terrible positions. What I envision is three conferences of fourteen teams consolidated from the five existing leagues. They should line up more or less geographically, although the number of teams from each area makes that difficult. An invite to the Big Twelve (or whatever number it ends up with) for Marshall and one for Air Force would improve the situation - but I had already considered and rejected that above. Consider that option B. In any case, the three final leagues I'd like to see are, in no particular order:

Gulf Coast Area Conference (AKA SEC Lite)
Arkansas State
FAU
FIU
Houston
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee
Rice
Southern Miss
Troy
Tulane
UAB
Western Kentucky

I know Middle Tennesse is not in the Gulf Coast area, really.  Tough.  They could of course be placed in the "New MAC" below.

WAC (or Mountain West, or something new)
Colorado State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas
San Diego State
San Jose State
Southern Methodist
Utah State
UTEP
Wyoming

NMAC (New Mid-American Conference)
Air Force
Akron
Ball State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Kent State
Marshall
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Tulsa
Western Michigan

The Geography isn't perfect.  Houston is better than the league in which it landed.  Otherwise, I am satisfied with that arrangement.


Wrap-up of the Football Landscape:

There are several primary reasons (or at least positive consequences) of the setup I've laid out.

1. No team currently in a BCS-affiliated league gets left out of the party.
2. Several teams that need to be IN the party get there (Boise and Utah are the headliners)
3. A few less obvious choices will get their shot as well
4. No more Independents
5. Two of the Service Academies get respect
6. Most rivalries are preserved and new rivalries are created
7. The conferences are closer in size - ranging from 14 to 16 teams each instead of 8 to 12
8. There is room for some FCS programs to move up in time, joining either the three "lesser" conferences or even the Big 14 or PCC.
9. With only eight conferences, there's a possibility that the BCS could add another game and have representation from every conference.  I would be ecstatic.  We're not getting a playoff, so an eight-conference format with each champ getting an auto-bid might be a worthy compromise.

Stay tuned for the basketball version to follow shortly.

Louisville Cardinals Basketball Preview

It's been a pleasure doing this series of previews, but I have to admit that I am relieved to be posting the sixteenth and final entry.  Louisville tips off tonight at 7:30 and sometime before then I will be done.  I'll be taking tomorrow off to regroup but will be back on Thursday with something a little different.

Louisville under coach Rick Pitino is one of those rare programs that can lose a duo like Terrance Williams and Earl Clark and still be ranked in preseason polls.  Every media outlet seems to be giving them love, and their roster shows why.  Their roster also shows why there is an apparent line between them and the three top contenders for the Big East crown, however.  Contending with those three isn't out of the question, but it will take some development from a few key players and a smooth transition for a couple of talented freshmen.  They are fairly close to a lock for the NCAA Tournament, although their ultimate ceiling is something of an unknown.  They return only one player (Samardo Samuels) who averaged double figures last year, but Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, Preston Knowles, and Terrence Jennings all averaged better than .350 in points per minute, and that projects well.  The team will need Sosa to be more consistent if they want to repeat as league champs. A lot of folks seem to have lost track of the fact that they won both league titles last year, and while they don't look poised to accomplish quite that much this year, it should be a warning sign to take them seriously.  A question that needs to be asked is if Pitino will be the same coach after the controversy of a few weeks ago.  I think he will, but the concern is out there.





Team Info

Head Coach:
Rick Pitino, 9th season


'08-'09 Results:
31-6 Overall, 18-3 Big East
Elite Eight (1 seed)


Departing Players:
G-F Earl Clark
G Andre McGee
G Will Scott
F Lee Steiden
F Terrance Williams

Returning Players:
G Chris Brickley (Sr.)
G Reginald Delk (Sr.)
G Jerry Smith (Sr.)
G Edgar Sosa (Sr.)
G Preston Knowles (Jr.)
F George Goode (So.)
F Terrence Jennings (So.)
G Kyle Kuric (So.)
F Samardo Samuels (So.)
F Jared Swopshire (So.)


Newcomers:
PF Rakeem Buckles
SG Mike Marra
PF Richie Phares
PG Peyton Siva
F Stephen Van Treese


(Full Roster)


Nonconference Slate:  Arkansas, East Tennessee State, Morgan State, Appalachian State, @ UNLV, Stetson, Charlotte, Western Carolina, Oral Roberts, Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafayette, Radford, @ Kentucky


Big East home-and-home:  Connecticut, St. John's, Syracuse


Big East Home Opponents:  South Florida, Villanova, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Big East Road Opponents:  Providence, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, West Virginia, DePaul, Marquette


Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase:  Oddly, Louisville plays the "semifinal match against Arkansas first and then faces its next three opponents also as part of this event.  They will also play either Memphis or Kansas.


Coaches' Pick:  4th, Big East




Outlook


The Skinny:


Up front, this team has one very talented player in Samardo Samuels.  He will almost certainly be a leader and improve on his 11.8 point/4.9 rebound stats from last year.  Terrence Jennings looks capable of stepping up to provide a lot of help up there as well, but questions begin after that.  Can Jared Swopshire or George Goode step up to shore up the depth?  If not, The team may turn to freshmen Rakeem Buckles or Peyton Siva.  Buckles is probably the most talented of the four, and could make any questions of big-man depth go away early, but how quickly will he progress?  The backcourt is a little deeper but doesn't have a stud like Samuels at the head.  Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith, and Preston Knowles are all solid and Kyle Kuric played some effective although limited minutes last year.  Freshmen Peyton Siva and Mike MArra figure to get some playing time as well, and may not be a major step down fromt he starters once the season progresses.  We know this team has a good bit of talent and a great coach; what we don't know yet is how deep they will be.  What they get from their bench will determine whether they contend for a league title, finish 4th or 5th, or land on the NCAA Tournament bubble.


Best Case:


As great as this team was last year, and as great as their head coach is, I don't think they are capable of recapturing both Big East crowns.  But they could come close by finishing in the top four and earning those double byes in the Big East Tournament.  That would put them in a great position to defend one of the titles.  What will it take for them to get there?  For one, the development of Samuels' game; he was a great freshman and if he is a great sophomore it will go a long way.  They'll need their talented second line to make full use of their abilities.  The play of Swopshire, Kuric, Reginald Delk, and the freshman class could make all the difference.  With some pretty tough opponents and needing their freshmen to play big minutes, I think 13-1 is their best ooc mark.  They could see 5-1 in their home-and-home games, 5-1 in against the teams they host, and 4-2 in the Big East arenas they'll invade.  27-5, 14-4 would probably be good for second or third place and a 2 or three seed depending on their play in the Garden.  Wining that tournament would do wonders.


Worst Case:


In short, if none of what I said above happens (pretty unlikely) they could lose as many as five of their fourteen out of conference games.  9-5 wouldn't intimidate too many Big East teams, which could factor slightly into their league record.  As likely as 5-1 in their home-and-homes is 2-4 (because they play three quality teams, but my money's on 3-3 or 4-2).  They shouldn't lose more than two of the remaining six Big East games in Freedom Hall, but they could lose three more on the road.  That would end up, though, in a disappointing 18-13 Overall, 10-8 Big East, probably seventh or eighth place, and on the NCAA Tournament Bubble.  Madison Square Garden could decide their fate there.  As always, keep in mind that this section is NOT a prediction, just an extreme possibility.


My Best Guess:


24-8 Overall, 12-6 Big East (5th place) plus one win at least in the conference tournament.  They should be playing in March and with a pretty good seed, but there are simply four rosters I like better as the season tips off.




Rick Pitino image from totalprosports.com
Cardinals logo from artisicglassdesign.com
Samardo Samuels image from hoopgroup.com
Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase logo from scottradecenter.com

Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Preview

This is one more Big East team that played well for a lot of last season only to puzzlingly disappear down the stretch.  Part of the problem was losing freshman point guard Cashmere Wright to injury, but some wonder if the problems are a little deeper.  The Big East coaches voted them to finish seventh - an improvement but a modest one - in part because of those doubts.  Wright is not the biggest story, though.  That would have to be the addition of Lance Stephenson, a controversial player who I have tabbed as my preseason FOY for the league.  The team's only departing player of note is forward Mike Williams, and Stephenson's production should more than make up for that loss.  Part of the thinking is that Wright's return to action will not only improve ball distribution but free up senior guard Deonta Vaughn to do what he does best: score.  Yancy Gates and Ibrahima Thomas will round out a talented starting five, unless of course Dion Dixon or Larry Davis get the call instead.  Mick Cronin and the Bearcat faithful believe they finally have the roster to get their program back to the dominance it once showed.  As has been widely documented, the Big East is probably an easier league to do that in now than a year ago...so is this the year Cincinnati makes some serious noise?


Team Info

Head Coach:
Mick Cronin, 4th season

'08-'09 Results:
18-14 Overall, 8-11 Big East
no postseason

Departing Players:
F Kenny Belton
G Branden Miller
F Mike Williams

Returning Players:
C Steve Toyloy (Sr.)
G Deonta Vaughn (Sr.)
F Rashad Bishop (Jr.)
G Larry Davis (Jr.)
C Anthony McClain (Jr.)
F Darnell Wilks (Jr.)
G Dion Dixon (So.)
F Yancy Gates (So.)

Newcomers:
F Ibrahima Thomas (transfer, Oklahoma State)
G Edie Tyree (JUCO)
PG Cashmere Wright (RS)
G Alex Eppensteiner
SG Sean Kilpatrick
G Anthony McBride
G Jaquon Parker
SF Lance Stephenson

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Prairie View A&M, Toledo, @ Vanderbilt, Texas Southern, Miami (OH), @ Xavier, @ UAB, Lipscomb, Winthrop, Cal State-Bakersfield

Big East home-and-home:  Connecticut, Notre Dame, South Florida

Big East Home Opponents:  Pittsburgh, Providence, Syracuse, Marquette, DePaul, Villanova


Big East Road Opponents:  Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John's, Louisville, West Virginia, Georgetown

Maui Invitational:  This is another tournament loaded with talented teams.  Cincinnati will play Vanderbilt to get things going, and then Chaminade or Maryland in the winners' or losers' bracket.  Their third and final game will be against one of four opponents from the bottom half of the bracket: Colorado, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

Coaches' Pick: 7th, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

The only position on the floor that is questionable for the Bearcats is Center.  Steve Toyloy hasn't been impressive, and neither has his backup Anthony McClain.  Toyloy will probably get his share of starts, butt here are some ways around the middle being a liability.  First, Gates can be played at Center and (once eligible in January) Ibrahima Thomas can join Gates and Stephenson up front.  With Wright and Vaughn in the backcourt, that is one heck of a formidable starting five.  While waiting for Thomas, though, I expect to see a lot of three and maybe even four guard lineups trotted out.  Dixon and Davis aren't flashy, but can hold their own and put together some solid minutes between them last year.  They may also wish to see what JUCO transfer Eddie Tyree can do early.  They do have five guards worthy of serious playing time.  The one true concern may be depth up front.  Improvements by Toyloy and/or McClain - as well as Darnell Wilks and Rashad Bishop - may turn into an x-factor if foul trouble becomes any kind of theme.  The roster features four players (Vaughn, Gates, Wright, and Stephenson) who should be capable of taking over games at times and several quality roleplayers as well.  If the new guys make their presence felt early enough, they could be better than even I think they will.

Best Case:

I consider them a dark horse to do so, but they have the kind of roster that can win a league championship.  If Vaughn takes advantage of his newfound freedom, he could average 18-20.  Gates should develop from his freshman season and show real dominance.  If Stephenson and Wright have smooth transitions, that will make them eevn more deadly.  All it would take is one out of Thomas, Dixon, Davis, or Tyree stepping up in a big way to make them serious contenders.  If they want to win a Big East title, though, they'll also need quality minutes out of the rest of the roster when someone needs to sit.  Get that, and they could sail through the ooc to burst onto the scene.  The 12-0 nonleague record they could put together would feature impressive wins over Vanderbilt, likely Maryland and Gonzaga, and at Xavier.  Four of their six repeat games are tough, so they probably can't win them all but 5-1 could happen.  They could also win all the remaining home games, capped with an upset of league favorite Villanova, and perhaps go 4-2 on the road.  That would put them at 27-3, 15-3 and under the right circumstances that could mean a Big East title.  I'm not so sure a team very reliant on freshmen could win the Big East Tournament, but the double bye would help.

Worst Case:

Things could, of course, go wrong.  Vaughn could stay where he was last year or regress slightly switching positions.  Maybe Gates doesn't play better as a sophomore than as a freshmen.  Maybe the new kids take some time to learn.  Most likely of the maybes, maybe no one beyond those four has a great year, and the team starts to lose some games when fouls rear their ugly heads.  Under the weight of all those maybes becoming yesses, they're still pretty good.  They should lose more than 2 or 3 out of conference.  They'll sweep South Florida and I'm sure notch at least one of the four games against ND and UConn.  There are only three visiting teams (Pitt, Syracuse, and Villanova) that should give them problems, and the road slate, while difficult, shouldn't be worse than .500 either.  So what I'm projecting as their worst possible outcome is 18-12, 9-9 and good for eighth or ninth place.  Honestly a finish that low would really surprise me, but I suppose it is believable.

My Best Guess:

24-6 Overall, 13-5 Big East (4th place) plus a seed adjustment in the conference tournament (meaning a win or two).  I like this team's stars too much to project worse than that, but don't think they are quite at the level of teams 1-3 in my projected standings (Villanova, West Virginia, and Connecticut).


Maui Invitational logo from Marquette.Scout.com
Bearcats logo from gamewornuniforms.com

West Virginia Mountaineers Basketball Preview

Another preseason Big East favorite tips off this afternoon at four: the West Virginia Mountaineers.  Alex Ruoff is gone, but oherwise their roster is largely intact.  They have already had some off-the-court issues swirling around two of their top guards, but coach Bob Huggins elected to keep both on the team and they are ready to go to open the season.  Some pick this team to win the conference because of their experience and the frontcourt duo of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks; others pick them second or third because Villanova and Connecticut bring in recruiting classes that are superior on paper.  Few pick them to do much worse than that.  Whispers of "Final Four" can be heard in Morgantown...and they may not be too ambitious.  If this team does manage to put the troubles of Darryl Bryant and Joe Mazzula behind them they will be extremely talented both up front and in the backcourt.  I trust Huggins to get a lot out of his players on the court, but I don't trust him to keep his players out of trouble.  Still, it's hard to imagine this group of kids having an unsuccessful season whatever happens off the court.  There's no team in the country that should be capable of running away with a game against them.  A team that often flies under the radar is finally getting a lot of preseason attention, and today they take their first step in proving they deserve it.


Team Info

Head Coach:
Bob Huggins, 3rd season

'08-'09 Results:
23-12 Overall, 12-9 Big East
NCAA Tournament opening round (6 Seed)

Departing Players:
F Dee Proby
G Alex Ruoff
F Josh Sowards
G Will Thomas

Returning Players:
F Da'Sean Butler (Sr.)
F Wellington Smith (Sr.)
F John Flowers (Jr.)
G Joe Mazzula (Jr.)
F Cam Thoroughman (Jr.)
G Jonnie West (Jr.)
G Darryl Bryant (So.)
F Devin Ebanks (So.)
F Kevin Jones (So.)
G Cam Payne (So.)


Newcomers:
G Casey Mithcell (JUCO)
C Danny Jennings
F Deniz Kilicli
SG Bryan Lowther
SG Dalton Pepper
G Kenny Ross

(Full Roster)

Nonconference Slate:  Loyola (MD), Citadel, @ Long Beach State, Duquesne, Coppin State, @ Cleveland State, Mississippi, @ Purdue, Marshall, Ohio State

Big East home-and-home:  Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Villanova

Big East Home Opponents:  Marquette, Rutgers, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgetown

Big East Road Opponents:  Notre Dame, South Florida, DePaul, St. John's, Providence, Connecticut

76 Classic:  This stacked tournament opens for the Mountaineers against Long Beach State.  They will then play Texas A&M or Clemson, and finally one of Minnesota, Butler, Portland, or UCLA.  A win of this event would go a long way toward cementing West Virginia's resume from the outset.

Coaches' Pick: 2nd, Big East


Outlook

The Skinny:

This team's frontcourt is extremely talented, and deeper than you might know.  Butler, Ebanks, and Kevin Jones are all scorers who play great defense and can grab boards.  John Flowers and Wellington Smith are also capable of competent minutes if someone gets in foul trouble, and there are two freshmen who may be able to contribute off the bench.  There are criticisms out there of their backcourt, but it too is at least solid - making the Mountaineers not only a talented team but a balanced one.  Darryl Bryant is a very talented point guard, and while Mazzula isn't flashy or special he is competent.  They bring in the 2009 JUCO player of the year, and no one seems to be talking about that.  Casey Mitchell probably won't start but is an excellent third guard to have.  Their highest-rated recruit is a guard by the name of Dalton Pepper, and his play could be a major x-factor.  Even though the rest of the roster is not likely to play a major role, that's nine players with significant talent ready to make some noise.  They're set up to handle an injury or suspension, which is part of what makes a team likely to fare well in a tough conference.  Bob Huggins is not particularly well-liked by fans across the nation, but he is a proven winner with a talented squad so failing to take them seriously would be a mistake.

Best Case:

How else can one say it except Final Four?  This team could sweep the league titles, lose just three or four games, and march their way to Indianapolis without surprising anyone.  The out of conference schedule is ambitious, with guaranteed games against Mississippi, Purdue, and Ohio State and likely games against Clemson and Butler.  Even if the 76 Classic goes a little differently, Texas A&M, UCLA, and Minnesota are other possible opponents.  So there is probably one loss at least in the mix if only because of the high level of competition.  They face three pretty talented teams twice, but winning five of six is possibly in the cards.  A perfect mark at home doesn't stretch credibility, either.  There's probably one road loss out of Notre Dame, St. John's, and Connecticut.  Still, that's looking at a possible record of 27-3, 16-2.  They could get to thirty wins if they win the conference tournament, and that might impress enough for a one seed in March.

Worst Case:

I honestly don't find their worst case, even if someone gets into trouble, as very bad at all.  They're a lock for the NCAA Tournament as long as nothing miraculously bad happens.  That noncon is ambitious enough that I suppose three losses could happen, but 9-3 against that slate is respectable.  All three of their repeat opponents might be capable of beting them once, but no more than two will.  Then again, Villanova is extremely talented so they could win both, putting the worst at 3-3 either way.  They host most of the remaining good teams, so 5-1 and 4-2 in the other two-thirds one way or the other is probably the worst they'll do.  That sums to 21-9, 12-6 and still puts them in great position in both the league and national tournaments.  I know that this doesn't exactly sound like a worst case, but they have enough players to make me confident that it is.

My Best Guess:

25-5 Overall, 14-4 Big East (2nd place) though I don't know what to expect in the league tournament.  This is probably good for a 2-4 seed depending on the rest of the nation.


Mountaineer logo from collegefinancialaidguide.com
Bob Huggins with Mountaineer image from letsgomountaineers.net

Devin Ebanks image from realcollegebasketball.com
76 classic logo from events.pe.com